Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

BMG 2008 Predictions

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Simply list out which way the following 17 states will go.  For bonuses, call the Senate results:

CO   FL   GA   IA

IN   MN   MO   MT  

NC   ND   NH   NV  

NM   OH   PA   VA   WI

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  1. McCain gets FL GA IN MO MT NC ND NV NM OH VA for a 275-268 win.  

    <

    p>If I win (and im giving myself 20-80 odds I’m right) we’re hitting the central.  

    • If that happens, I’ll probably be spending much of the next four years pretty drunk anyways.  I’ll be happy to buy you a round.  Interesting that you have McCain winning New Mexico but not Pennsylvania.

      <

      p>For me it says 333-205:

      <

      p>Obama : CO FL IA MN NC NH NV NM PA VA WI
      McCain: GA, IN, ND, MO, MT, OH

      • Everyone said I was nuts for calling the Cards but they pulled off an amazing win in overtime.  I had no factual basis to think that they would win that game — and all the numbers said they would lose — I just had a feeling.

        <

        p>For the record, I have no idea who is going to the superbowl, but I would love to see Pats-Saints.

    • Perhaps you should view Sen. McCain’s SNL Weekend Update
      appearance last night. It looked like the “real McCain”, he was relaxed and was joking about the fact that he has no hope of winning. I Think the election would have been closer if they just let McCain be McCain.
      Also interesting to watch was George Will giving Obama the largest Number of Electoral votes This morning On This Week. I wish I could embed the links but I’m new to this.
       Since I don’t drink I don’t want to play But Obamaa will win all of the above states except Mo.

    • On that particular configuration, or on you winning the contest?

      <

      p>If the former, I’d happily give you 4:1 odds on said outcome.  

      <

      p>If the latter, I’d also happily give you 4:1 odds.

      <

      p>Let me know…

  2. Obama: CO IA MN NC NH NV NM PA VA WI
    McCain: FL GA IN ND MO MT OH

    <

    p>Partly based on polling, partly based on wishful thinking and partly based on the fact that we’ve been burned by Ohio and Florida enough that I can’t bring myself to count on them.

  3. Obama: CO, FL, GA, IA, MN, NC, NH, NV, NM, OH, PA, VA, WI
    McCain: IN, MO, MT, ND

    <

    p>Senate: Dems +7 seats
    House: Dems +26 seats

  4. Obama: CO FL IA IN MN MO NC NH NV NM OH PA VA WI
    McCain: GA MT ND

    <

    p>Senate: Republicans retain 41 seats (not including Lieberman)

  5. Obama:  CO FL IA MN NH NV NM OH PA VA WI
    McCain:  GA IN MO MT NC ND

    <

    p>Senate D pickups:  AK CO MN NH NM OR VA…and in an upset, ME đŸ™‚

  6. Alaska: Begich, +1 Dem
    New Mexico: Udall, +1 Dem
    Colorado: Udall, +1 Dem
    North Carolina: Hagan, +1 Dem
    Virginia: Warner, +1 Dem
    Oregon: Merkley, +1 Dem
    New Hampshire: Shaheen, +1 Dem
    Minnesota: very close, 50/50 Coleman or Franken
    Maine: Collins, R hold
    Georgia: Chambliss, R hold
    Kentucky: McConnell, R hold
    Mississippi: Wicker, R hold

    <

    p>Total: +7 or +8 Dem.

    <

    p>I’ll be very frustrated if we get +9 Dem because that’ll make Joe appear relevant again.  But I don’t think it’ll happen.

  7. CO, FL, GA, IA, MN, MT, NC, ND, NH, NV, NM, OH, PA, VA and WI for BO

    <

    p>IN, MO for JM

    <

    p>59 Senate seats for the Dems including the runnoff in GA.  There is a special place in hell reserved for Saxby Chamblis.

  8. I predict Obama wins all of the states you listed except:
    IN, ND, GA, MT

    <

    p>And MO I call 50/50, and very close.

    <

    p>I think I’m going out on a limb on Florida and North Carolina, but not a very long limb.  I won’t be surprised to see McCain win either of those.

  9. This is our 1980.

    <

    p>Obama: CO, FL, IA, MN, MO, NC, NH, NV, NM, OH, PA, VA, WI
    McCain: GA, IN, ND

    <

    p>Senate Democratic gains (+8): AK, CO, KY, MN, NH, NC, OR, VA

    <

    p>House Democratic gains (+29)

  10. Obama wins CO, FL, IA, IN, MN, NH, NV, NM, PA, VA, WI
    Mccain wins GA, MO, MT, NC ND, OH,

    <

    p>Obama could hit 350 electoral votes but won’t exceed 51% popular vote.

    <

    p>To the Senate….
    Colorado: Udall
    NM: …also Udall
    Alaska: Steven (Alaska thumbs its nose at DC).  
    North Carolina: Hagan (Liddy apparently listened to husband, Bob)
    Virginia: Warner
    Oregon: Smith
    New Hampshire: Sununu (who knew? me)  
    Minnesota: Coleman (a mid-west dampening of Democratic-tsunami)  
    Maine: Collins (who cares)  
    Kentucky: McConnell (anti-Bush-ism not anti-conservative-ism)

    <

    p>…and yes, I do drink. and I do drink beer.
     

  11. Obama: CO, FL, IA, MN, MO, ND, NH, NV, NM, OH, PA, VA, WI
    McCain: GA, IN, MT, NC

    <

    p>Keeping fingers crossed that there is not an undercurrent of undecideds that are really anti Obama.

  12. So I’m taking: Obama wins each of those 17 states except Georgia, including Hoosierland.  

    <

    p>I think some ticket-splitting will help a few R’s on the fence.  House = +21 Rs, Senate = +5 Rs.  

    <

    p>Good job Sabutai.  

  13. Obama: CO, IA, MN, NC, ND, NH, NV, NM, OH, PA, VA, WI – 329 EVs

    <

    p>McCain: FL, GA, IN, MO, MT – 209 EVs

    <

    p>Senate:
    VA – Dem
    NM – Dem
    CO – Dem
    AK – Dem
    NH – Dem
    OR – Dem
    NC – Dem
    MN – Barely Dem
    GA – Run-off, eventually R
    The rest: stay R or D, respectively
    Totals: 59 Dem (incl. Lieberman), 41 Rep

  14. That would be a great headline. Your overconfidence and ignorance of your own state’s politics will hurt you. The nondemocrats will gain in the state legislature.  

    • my prediction is that beatty will get 35% of the vote.  not bad, considering he’s up against a well-liked incumbent in a blue state, and beatty himself is a bit batty.  you should be proud of the votes he gets – they demonstrate real dedication by goopers desperate for anyone not-democratic.

  15. Electoral College: 301-237

    <

    p>McCain: FL GA IN MO MT ND NV OH    
    Obama: CO IA MN NC NH NM PA VA WI

    <

    p>Senate: +6

    <

    p>Alaska: Begich wins
    New Mexico: Udall wins
    Colorado: Udall wins
    North Carolina: Hagan wins
    Virginia: Warner winds
    Oregon: Merkley wins
    New Hampshire: Shaheen wins
    Minnesota: sorry to say, I think Coleman may be re-elected
    Georgia: Early voting looks good for Martin, but I think that rotten SOB Chambliss will win in a runoff.
    Mississippi: I think it will go to Wicker.
    Kentucky: The odious McConnell will win again.

    <

    p>House: +27
    Goodbye Michelle Bachmann.

  16. BHO:

    <

    p>CO, FL, IA
    IN, MN, MO
    NC, NH, NV  
    NM, OH, PA, VA, WI

    <

    p>JSMcC:

    <

    p>ND, GA, MT

    <

    p>Senate:
    57-40-2
    GA will need a tiebreaker.

  17. and bet big. Obama takes all the listed states, including GA, MT and IN. And just for fun let him have AZ as well!

    <

    p>As for the sentate, we’ll get to 61. We’ll take down McConnell, Chambliss and Collins in our path of destruction…

    <

    p>OK, I know I’m dreaming. But when I dream, I dream big! Just watch me play poker…

  18. Looks like i’m predicting 333 (but up to 375ish)

    <

    p>Obama solid: CO, IA, MN, NM, VA, WI
    Obama wins: FL, NC, NH, NV, PA
    Leans Obama: OH, IN, MO
    Leans McCain: GA, ND, MT

    <

    p>Senate pick-ups: +9 VA, NM, CO, NH, AK, OR, NC, MN, and maybe GA in overtime.

    <

    p>House: no real idea, let’s say +28

  19. McCain gets: FL, GA, IN, MO, MT, ND
    Obama gets: CO, IA, MN, NC, NH, NV, NM, OH, PA, VA, WI

    <

    p>Senate races:

    <

    p>AK, CO, NM, VA, OR, NH, NC, MN (easily the closest race) go Democratic. GY, KY, MS stay Republican (GA probably needing a run-off, and if the rest happens as predicted, becomes one of the most expensive Senate races in history). All other seats not changing party.

  20. Obama: CO FL IA IN MN MO NC ND NH NV NM OH PA VA WI
    McCain: GA MT

    <

    p>Senate: 58 D including Sanders and Joe L.

    <

    p>This result set is dependent on Obama’s GOTV operation being everything it’s cracked up to be.

    <

    p>All my anecdotal information says that it is.  I sure hope so.

  21. McCain wins FL GA IN MO MT NC ND NH OH PA
    Obama wins CO IA MN NV NM VA

    <

    p>If I had a white board I’d write on it:

    <

    p>PA
    PA
    PA

    <

    p>This is all about Pennsylvania.  The audiotape with Barack Obama saying he’s going to shut down the coal industry that came out today may just be what turns the tide in the Western Part of that state, oh and Murtha calling his constituents Racist didn’t hurt.

  22. Here are the predictions I posted on my blog, ShrewsBuried.com:

    <

    p>President and Vice President

    <

    p>Barack Obama and Joseph Biden will win the election with 367 Electoral votes and 51.3% of the popular vote.

    <

    p>Of the battleground states: Obama will win: Michigan, Minnesota, Washington, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, and maybe: North Dakota, Florida, Missouri, and North Carolina.

    <

    p>McCain/Palin will lose, but will capture these battleground states: West Virginia, Mississippi, South Dakota, Arizona, and maybe: Montana, Georgia, and Indiana.

    <

    p>U.S. Senate

    <

    p>I predict the Democrats will win 59 seats.  With the 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats and the 49 seats they hold already, that will be an 8-seat pickup.

    <

    p>Those represent 3 seats of retiring Republicans (Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia) and 5 seats whose Republican incumbents will lose: Sununu (New Hampshire), Smith (Oregon), Stevens (Alaska), Dole (North Carolina), and Coleman (Minnesota). Two of those races will be close: North Carolina & Minnesota.

    <

    p>Meanwhile, three other seats will be close but the Republican incumbents will win: Wicker (Mississippi), McConnell (Kentucky), and Chambliss (Georgia).

    <

    p>U.S. House

    <

    p>Democrats will pick up 22 seats, for a 257-178 majority, up from 235-199 now (with one vacancy). That’s a wild guess based on polls and splitting the differences.

    <

    p>Locally:
    Obama will get 59% of the Massachusetts vote compared to McCain’s 39%.  (2% other.)

    <

    p>U.S. Senator: John Kerry (60-40)

    <

    p>Question 1: No. (55-45)

    <

    p>Question 2: No. (65-35)

    <

    p>Question 3: Yes. (52-48)

    <

    p>Barack on!  Mark Adler, Shrewsbury, Massachusetts
    publisher of ShrewsBuried, the political blog for Shrewsbury, Massachusetts, and faithful BMG reader!

  23. but I’m never right. Where is the pulse of America anyway?

    <

    p>Obama wins
    CO FL IA MN NH NV NM OH PA VA WI and yes NC

    <

    p>McCain wins
    IN GA MT ND and MO–the last by voter suppression

    <

    p>When the dust settles there will be 56 Democratic senators, not including Saunders or Lieberman.

    <

    p>And remember, “this election is a referendum on Socialism.” Advantage: Socialism.

  24. Obama, 364-174.

    <

    p>Of your 17-state list:
    Obama: CO, FL, IA, MN, MO, NC, NH, NV, NM, OH, PA, VA, WI
    McCain: GA, IN, MT, ND

    <

    p>Been saying this for a coupla days now, though I know I’m wicked late for the 9AM deadline…

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