Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

It would be foolish to ignore …

By

… Tim Cahill.

A week ago Cahill told the Herald that he might jump into a primary challenge against the Governor “It would depend upon the situation the state faces … I enjoy being the boss.” Uh huh.

State House News Service (quoted by Paul) says The Gov is brushing aside any anxiety about the Cahill challenge:

Patrick tells the News Service, “I’m running,” adding, “I fully expect there are going to be challengers, and that’s all right. Keeps my game sharp.” What about having to maybe pull a Dukakis and fend off a Democratic primary challenger? “Doesn’t matter to me,” a smiling Patrick shrugged.

 Again, I think the Governor is catching hell — and will indeed catch more — for a lot of things that are not his fault. The Big Dig debt is a nightmare that was going to be dealt with one way or another. The financial crisis hits state governments particularly hard, since they can't just borrow their way into a stimulus. But if the electorate is feeling cranky in a year and a half, they'll take it out on the incumbent.

I'm pretty darned sure Cahill would have some problems, particularly with progressives. His committment to the new health care law is shaky — although with luck, that may not even be an issue of local concern at that point. He's emphatically pro-casino (not that that redounds to Patrick's benefit, either). He's mostly gotten press by being against Patrick's proposed financial reforms; at some point he'll have to offer credible alternatives, if indeed he wants to be boss.

And even more to the point … If Patrick is weakened enough by external circumstances to be vulnerable in 2010 — who would want the job anyway?

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  1. Doubling the tolls and thoroughly pissing off the NS and Metrowest will be a fantastic reelection strategy for the Governor, forcing commuters to spend nearly $2k a year to cross a plot of land, as opposed to spreading that out $50-150 for everyone in the state.

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    p>SHNS:

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    Patrick said, “My colleagues on Beacon Hill sometimes feel a little touchy on the subject of real transportation reform.”

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    p>Gee – huge with expensive tolls already and increasingly more expensive public transportation – I wonder why?

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    p>BTW – loved my state rep’s response:

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    The policy debate opens a late-year battle likely to spill over into the next session.

    “We’ve been waiting 18 months for his proposal, and what they’ve come up with is a toll hike on people who have already shouldered the burden for so long,” said Rep. Lori Ehrlich, a freshman Marblehead Democrat, who said she had been trying to arrange a meeting with the governor and between 40 and 50 lawmakers from the Metrowest in North Shore, but that she has been told by Patrick aides the governor was too busy over the next two weeks.

    “Yes, I’m touchy,” she said. “What I’m hearing from my constituents is outrage, and the outrage in my district is just overwhelming and it extends even further. Working people are passing the breaking point as to whether or not they can afford to get to their jobs, in an economy when they’re lucky to have those jobs.”

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    p>The Governor, who refuses that meeting, really has a tin ear on this one:

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    “People go into their magic solution, and they’re unwilling to hear anything else,” he told the News Service.

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    p>Touché!

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    p>Like the Gov, glad we elected him… but with all due respect, he ain’t the one shelling out $1k a year (now) to use the Big Dig tunnels, nor one of the many paying for it driving through the Pike who don’t even use Big Dig roads.

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    p>I don’t think he’ll lose 100,000+ votes over a small, almost non-partisan raise to the gas tax… but given the fact that he’s so anti-gas tax and pro NS/MW shelling out thousands more… I think he could lose at least that many voters should these toll hikes happen in those regions alone. He will be blamed for those hikes, as he should.

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    p>If he wants to play smart politics (and, thankfully, policy), he’ll reverse course and support the gas tax that Sal will probably be able to push through on his own. We can and should have comprehensive transportation in this state, but Patrick’s plan is not only bad policy, shouldering the burden on those who can’t afford it, it’s not even comprehensive to begin with. Cahill is a serious threat and Deval’s going to need the support of Metrowest and the NS. He should immediately abandon his position on the toll hike and work with Beacon Hill to find a solution that shoulders the burden throughout the state in a fair way and works for us all. I’m not saying tolls can’t be a part of that solution, but they’re already too damn expensive as is. Raising them is out of the question if he wants to maintain his strong support in the MW/NS regions.  

  2. I think part of this may remain the idea that if Deval should move out of Boston to Washington, Cahill becomes co-equal favorites with Murray for the next election.

    • Does anyone still think Patrick is going to be part of the Obama administration?  Why would he go back to D.C. for anything less than Attorney General?  Been there, done that.

      • Maybe I didn’t write as clearly as I could have.  The simple facts are this: Deval is going to move on someday.  Maybe not DC today, but he clearly has higher ambitions than Boston.  His past 18 months have a travel schedule not far off from Mitt Romney’s.

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        p>When Deval does move on, the tendency is to look at the lt. gov. as heir, especially if it happens to be a young ambitious politician.  Cahill started to make waves almost a year ago, and this is just more of the same.  He clearly isn’t going to give anything over to Murray, and this is his gambit to stay relevant in politics and policy for the inevitable moment to come.  I don’t think he’d challenge Deval head-on — though poll numbers may decide that — but he very much wants to be “in the mix”.

        • IMO, if he plans on running for something higher some day (Senator qualifies as higher, I guess) he better get some more accomplishments under his belt, and not leave us with a lot of unresolved junk. In other words, keep his promise to hang around for a bit.

      • Not exactly an administration position, but maybe he could be DNC chair.  A successful nominee usually gets his choice of party chair and the Governor could do this and still be Governor.  Roy Romer was simultaneously Governor of Colorado and DNC chairman, so this is not without precedent.

        • When Romer (and Chris Dodd before him and Ed Rendell after him) was chairman of the DNC, the chairmanship was split. From 1995 to 2001 there were two chairs of the DNC: a “general chair” and a “national chair”.

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          p>From what I can figure, the general chair (Dodd, Romer and Rendell) was more of a figurehead – somebody well known who could speak for the party, but not really involved with the day-to-day running. The national chair (Donald Fowler, Steve Grossman, and Joseph Andrew, respectively) was doing all that sort of work.

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          p>But as of 2001 (when Terry McAuliffe took the chair), there’s again only one chair. And it is a lot of work, as Howard Dean has shown us, especially if you want to do the job right.

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          p>Absent another general/national split – which certainly isn’t impossible – I think it would be a bit much to expect Gov. Patrick to be chair and keep his day job.

  3. Gov. Patrick seems to have a problem with personalizing opposition to his policies even when they’re based on solid analysis.

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    p>The two big examples: casinos and now toll increases instead of a higher gasoline tax.

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    p>I don’t get it.

  4. Yes, Deval has issues.  A toll increase should be a non-starter and he should know it.  But Cahill!?!

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    p>Tim Cahill couldn’t even win a statewide At-Large delegate slot to the Democratic National Convention.  Tim just wants to be relevant and wants a higher job.  Everybody knows his game!

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    p>People don’t warm up to a Treasurer who just wants to be something else (e.g. governor, U.S. senator, whatever suits his fancy at the time).

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    p>Tim should concentrate a little at trying to do a good job at what he has been elected to do.  Not chase every opportunity that comes along.

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    p>Deval will likely move to D.C. for a Supreme Court seat or the AG’s slot when Eric Holder steps on it. Deval will be in Boston for a bit and he will pay attention to policy issues that bring good governement into place.

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    p>As I’ve said before, there are cuts that can occur in state government (i.e. bloated bureaucracy, merging courts, etc,) before he looks at raising taxes, fees, and tolls.  Deval is a good governor, but when one shakes up the estalishment  some eggs will be broken and some fiefdoms will be invaded.  Let alone some feelings being hurt!

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