So John Kerry got re-elected overwhelmingly. And while he is in line for the chairmanship of the big-deal Foreign Relations Committee (Biden's current chair), he is reported to be lobbying for Secretary of State. So the DC promotion that everyone was talking about — Gov. Patrick — is still not happening, but we may have a barnburner of a Senate race … at least among the Dems.
So what about …
- Martha Coakley? Well-liked in the state, smart, female, was a big Hillary supporter in a big Hillary state. I don't have a good grasp of what issue portfolio she brings to the table vis-a-vis the Senate, though. DA and AG are, like, jobs; pretty nuts-and-bolts, and often if they're good, they're not particularly political.
- Marty Meehan? Well, he's got money, and a record on (ironically) campaign finance. He wants the gig. Popular.
- Ed Markey? Might be my choice, at first glance. Wants the gig. Big on energy/environment and tech issues, and has a fairly big bully pulpit for those things now. Has national profile. Basically fits the description.
- Barney Frank? Chairs the powerful Banking and Finance committee, so he's got a full plate as it stands. Barney's got a certain, uh, charm, but he doesn't really exude that Senatorial kind of comity. Can you imagine him doing business with Orrin Hatch?
- Joe Kennedy? Where's he been? Right, on an oil tanker. Public service aside, I fear he may have hit his sell-by date for this run. Sort of feels like the retro-lib pick.
- Steven Lynch? Too conservative. Not seeing it.
- Tim Murray? Well-liked, smart, but young and somewhat buried as LG (part of the job, unfortunately).
- Tim Cahill? Like AG, the danger of professionalism lurks. As Treasurer, if you're really good at looking after the pot of money (as Cahill apparently is), you tend to neglect other concerns. I haven't seen Cahill evince that much curiosity about things beyond his present bailiwick — although he did go to India.
- Deval Patrick? Gov has said endlessly he's not jumping to an Obama adminstration, so I'd have to imagine that he's not up for a Senate run. Besides, he seems to want to be an executive, not join the Great Debating Society. And after all, there are 100 senators … only 50 governors.
And just to mention the obvious without too much denial … we hope Ted Kennedy is able to stick around as long as possible. One way or another, we're likely to have this race within the next few years.
A potentially even funner thing would be the resulting House race if one of the US Reps gets the job.
Who am I missing? Who do you like?
Please share widely!
I think that Cahill has had his eye on moving up for a while now, actually. He has publicly disagreed with Deval on issues from the budget to model schools. I have been of the opinion that he was shooting for a clash with Tim Murray should Deval take the Acela; but I think he has shown interest in political change for himself.
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p>I think any Congresscritter truly worried about being redistricted out of his seat in 2010-2012 might think it would be a good idea to run for Senate.
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p>Are we positive that Tom Menino couldn’t be talked into it?
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p>Nobody from the General Court? I think frankly that Terry Murray could make a good run for it, were she so inclined. Don’t expect her to, but fun to think about.
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p>My other left field picks — Chris Gabrieli and Cheryl Jacques.
Yeah, I was thinking about Terry Murray myself the other day. She’s got moxie, she’s a grinder, a do-er, and would probably be an outstanding US Senator. And I’ve always liked Gabs. Where is Jacques these days?
It’ll be a multi-candidate slugfest because it is in everyone’s interest to run in a special election.
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p>The winner may be able to prevail in the primary with less than a quarter of the votes.
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p>Personally I’d prefer a senator with some actual experience, but seems as though 25% could be within Gabrielli’s reach.
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p>On the other hand, he probably thought the same thing in 1998.
A Special Election for US Senate is a sprint not a marathon…so advantage goes to candidates with an established field organization that can be mobilized quickly. Of the candidates mentioned, Tim Murray definitely has that going for him because he had to build one to get elected in the Dem. Primary for LG…..Murray has maintained ties to local officials as a former Mayor and they look to him as an ally on the Hill…Murray also benefits from links to Patrick field and finance organization, he has been a saving grace for this administration and would deserve that support …Murray at 40 has the energy and ideas to catch fire (many of his campaign ideas are now Patrick Adm. victories) and he has raised quite a war chest this year alone…he owns Central and Western Mass support and if no other candidate emerges from Worcester (McGovern has no interest to date) Tim Murray could pull it off…
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p>Coakley, although very late to the team, she did finally support Hillary and that will get some advantage from Hillary fundraisers and Emily’s List…her campaign fundraising to date has not been outstanding, but since women are more than half the statewide Democratic Primary voters, she should get more than her share…she would need more than one male opponent. In a crowded field with only one woman, she would benefit. Because she was unopposed for AG she had no need to build a strong field statewide.
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p>Meehan may lust for the job and have the dough to go, but, there’s something about Marty that gives people pause…maybe it was his term limits pledge that he broke when it came to himself…or his uncanny ability to tick people off…smarmy is a word that comes to mind…he would be lacking field support and would have to throw the whole thing onto TV and radio to build a recognition beyond Lowell and the political insiders around the state….Silky Shea would be proud of his old AA…
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p>Congressmen in General: unknown outside their districts…difficult to make up the name recognition in just weeks…some are better off and more powerful where they are with new Administration…Frank and Markey are at the top of their games now and McGovern is a star player…Lynch would like to make a go, but being the only pro-life candidate in the race may not be enough to get enough in the crowded field he would be counting on…and not all unions are pleased with him…
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p>Cahill: not sure if his resume matches his ambition…and with all of the ethics scrutiny ginning up everywhere you look, he might get hung up on his lobbyist neighbor’s ties to Lottery contracts which have already been hinted at in the press…time will tell…
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p>(Lastly…this is fun to speculate, but I think it may be mute…am not convinced that Kerry is a shoe-in for Sec of State)
he has the demographic base, everyman appeal, voting record, and ego to make a serious statewide run if he wants. it seems like ancient history that he entered the very large field of house candidates 10 years ago as a kind of parochial somerville wannabe.
Outspoken agains the war, a friend of the Veterans
Co-Chair of the Human Rights Caucus – “A Champion on Human Rights”
Vice Chair of the LGBT Equality Caucus
Been in the House 11 years now. He’s from Worcester.
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p>2 Kennedys as Senators- what year do people think this is?
that he’s interested?
I haven’t seen any evidence that he’s interested, but he’s immensely popular in Central MA (and beyond) which would give him an early advantage in a potentially crowded field of candidates.
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p>Does anyone think Martha Coakley got a bump from arguing on the big stage yesterday?
Don’t forget too that Jim McGovern endorsed Deval for Governor on April 1, 2005 (!) when most people were still asking Patrick who??
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p>I think that early support would go far with Deval and Tim’s field organizations….
is quite good on GLBT issues, as well. His loss was a big one for the glbt community, as well as Massachusetts as a whole. I don’t know if I’d get behind him – or really anyone at this point (I’d be content to watch a race for once!).
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p>I just thought it should be pointed out.
MA CD6 Congressman John Tierney, who is currently chairman of the House Government Reform and Oversight Committee’s sub-committee on national security and foreign affairs, would be an outstanding replacement for John Kerry. Tierney’s knowledge of the economy, education, and workforce make him particularly well suited to serve in the Senate.
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p>Don’t sell North of Boston, Essex County, and the North Shore short in this mix.
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p>Many have their shortcomings and some (i.e. Cahill, Meehan, and others) are just looking out for number one or want something else to do.
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p>We are fortunate to have an abundance of qualified candidates, if Kerry has the opportunity to serve elsewhere presented and he takes it.
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p>
Most Congressmen are not really known outside of their own districts…west of Peabody, no one knows who Tierney is…he may look at this race because he would be the odd Congressman out in redistricting and getting in this would have no downside to him…but he would not be a top tier candidate in this race.
This is the 2nd time you’ve taken a shot at Tierney and you didn’t back it up last time either.
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p>Most of the 6th District is North and West of Peabody, so you’re obviously not familiar with the area. And his district abuts those of Niki Tsongas and Ed Markey, so if you are certain they are going redistrict him out- tell me, are they going to put him up against: the lone female or the dean of the delegation? My money says neither.
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p>I don’t think Tierney runs, because he’s obviously not a front-runner, but he’s certainly not a nobody either. A 6-term Congressman with $1.3mil cash on hand can be a player in a free-for-all “sprint” election.
Tsongas…and in that race Tierney will lose…the women will not give up that seat.
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p>Nothing against Tierney, it’s just political realities. If I got the Lynnfield and Reading phonebooks out and dialed up 100 people from each, I doubt his name recognition would exceed 50%…in his own district…Mr. Tierney gets elected on votes from Senator Berry and Senator McGee’s districts…both Martha Coakley and Tim Murray have very strong supporters in both those districts who would not be with Tierney in a Special for US Senate. Nothing against Tierney, just the facts of the matter…
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p>Compare Tierney to McGovern…McGovern is well-known and revered in and outside of his district because he is extremely generous with his time and efforts to help OTHER candidates…they would line up in a heartbeat to help him in return. Tierney, in spite of the fact that he has had no serious opposition since elected, does not enjoy that same reputation because he does not extend himself for the benefit of other candidates until pushed to do so at the last minute. Political courage may not be his forte and that’s fine but it won’t help him much in a sprint special election.
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p>Political realities, according to HLPeary.
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p>
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p>As a DTC chair in the 6th District who has worked on Tierney’s campaigns since 1994, I can honestly say this is the first time I’ve ever heard this. Sounds like more of a personal axe to grind than any basis in fact.
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p>If you think that Tim Murray, who no one outside of Worcester had even heard of two+ years ago, carries more support on the North Shore than the 6-term Congressman, then it’s obvious you don’t live here.
Of course my post had Only My Opinions…it was MY post, who else’s opinions would I write?…You clearly have a different take on it…that’s fine, everyone is speculating and generalizing on something that may never happen, just for fun…surely, I did not say that Coakley and Murray would be stronger than Tierney in the 6th District, I just said that they both had strong supporters in the district …which is very true…Tierney would not have a lock on the 6th voters…also true…and both Murray and Coakley (and even Cahill, Galvin, etc) are better known than Tierney across the state in all other congressional districts (because they have run statewide and serve in a statewide office)…which is also true.
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p>I have no personal axe to grind with this lesser known Congressman…if you feel my take on the political realities is incorrect, just disagree…no need to slam me or contort my statements because we see it differently.
I guess I missed where I “slammed” you, but nonetheless, when you pepper your “opinions” with phrases like “just the facts” and “these are political realities”, well I felt compelled to correct you about the “political realities” in my Congressional District.
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p>The whole notion that Tierney doesn’t campaign for people in his district unless absolutely necessary and isn’t as “beloved” seems unnecessarily personal to me and I can assure you that it is not a widely shared opinion among the majority of us who are the most politically active here.
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p>There is nobody mentioned in this thread (with the exception of Lynch) for whom I wouldn’t vote. What I couldn’t understand, however, is why you felt the need to attack Tierney, alone, in two different threads, calling him a “third tier candidate by any measure” but providing no explanation.
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p>I now see you’re basing that primarily on name recognition outside of his district, which is fine and perhaps true, but wouldn’t that also rule out the likes of Lynch or Capuano?
it’s just an opinion…it is my opinion that given the field of candidates being discussed, Tierney would be in the third tier…just my opinion (based on some incontrovertible and some subjective facts of politics in Massachusetts )…if Tierney is your guy you should encourage him to run and get out there and support him and get those who you believe love him in your area to help out.
Yes, Lynch and Capuano would also be lesser known outside of their districts if not for the fact that their districts are in the heart of major media outlets and their names are reported much more often in the Globe and Boston news channels than outlying congressmen like Tierney, Olver and Neal.
I’d be curious to see some statistics, but I would bet it’s Frank and Markey and everyone else is a distant 3rd. Just based on my own biased viewing/reading, I don’t think Lynch or Capuano get any more media coverage than the so-called outlying Congressmen.
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p>And just so you know, the 6th district starts about 7-8 miles north of Boston. It’s not exactly Maine.
I try to read more than the Lawrence Eagle at Salem (aka: Salem News), Lynn Item and the Peabody Times…but, maybe I missed the coverage Tierney, Neal and Olver were getting in the Metro Boston outlets. For the Boston media, once you crossed the General Edwards Bridge, you ARE in Maine.
Believe it or not, the Boston Globe does deliver ALL the way up here and according to a completely unscientific search of Globe archives, Tierney’s gotten about 400 mentions, Lynch about 400 mentions and Capuano about 700 mentions. That includes Capuano’s time as Somerville Mayor and Lynch’s time in the State Senate.
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p>By contrast, Frank (4000) Markey (2000) and Delahunt (2000) get significantly more press. I was also surpised to see that John Olver (1300) has been in the Globe more than Capuano and Lynch combined. McGovern (600), Neal (350) and Tsongas (165) round out the delegation.
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p>I think you overstate the local media coverage.
Peabody has that little rag with the inflammatory on-line comments brigade of local yahoos…
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p>Metro-Boston media outlet “mentions” (as in mentioned in a list of others or mentioned because they endorsed someone) are good for pols but it would be interesting to sort the lists you noted to figure out how many times they were mentioned because of something they did or accomplished where they were the only pol in the story. Name recognition is fine but it’s better to have people recognize your name FOR something…an action, an issue…
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p>the Globe archives back how many years are you citing? That matters…some of these guys have been around for eons…at election reporting alone they would rack up mentions over the years on lists of candidiates and winners.
Like I said, it was very unscientific. My definition of “mention” was just that- their name was listed in an article. The archives appear to go back to 1980, but the bulk of the “mentions” were in the last 15-18 years.
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p>In some cases, a particular rep was mentioned in the context of an election or listed among other reps, but most of the time, they appeared to be topic-specific: Delahunt and Venezuela, Barney Frank and mortgages, etc.
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p>Of course, I didn’t read every article either, so that’s why I said “about 400” or “about 700.” There may have been some William Delahunts or Jim McGoverns mentioned other than the Congressmen, but short of reading all 2000 articles, I just ballparked.
My impression is that Tierney has no interest in the seat, however I have been fortunate enough to hear both Tierney and Meehan, and Tierney and Tsongas, speak at events together, and Tierney comes across as a far more engaging, informed, and articulate person.
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p>I am not attacking either Meehan or Tsongas, just describing my observation.
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p>What is more, while you don’t hear as much about Tierney in Greater Lawrence, it is not because of his lack of work (just the lack of coverage). Furthermore, those activists on the North Shore are crazy about Tierney – something that isn’t the case with either Tsongas or Meehan.
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p>I am only comparing Tierney to those two because all three would be candidates that ate out of the same geographic base.
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p>…Genuinely, I do not believe Tierney has an interest in running in a special election, and this is all hot air…
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p>**To touch on the brief redistricting discussion, I would not think it likely that Tsongas (out of Lowell) and Tierney (out of Salem) would find themselves merged into the same district. If it did happen, it would be into a district that includes communities that are either already represented by Tierney, or were prior to the last redistricting. Nor do I see why any Democratic activists currently living in the 6th would jump ship from Tierney to Tsongas.
I wouldn’t count Jarrett Barrios out on a run. He’s clearly ambitious, though I never thought he was a fit for DA.
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p>Does Robert Reich still live in MA? I know it’s been a while for him but with an economics-driven race he might do ok.
The word is Jarrett was a grandstander at the State House. He then got a lot of folks to go out on a limb when Middlesex County District Attorney caught his eye.
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p>We saw wwhat happened their. Those whom were on the limb that was cut off did not enjoy the ride.
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p>Didn’t Jarrett try to go for a Hillary statewide At-Large delegate slot. How did that turn out?
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p>From what I can see, Jarrett lives on a street that has a one way sign on it and everybody who has been screwed over by him knows it.
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p>Jarrett, I like Fluff-a-nutter sandwichs and had them in school when I was a child. It all turned out okay.
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p>People don’t take issues like childhood obesity and diabetes seriously with you hammering on Fluff.
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p>Bored at BCBS Foundation? Thank’s for returning my call when I gave you the courtesy of letting you know I wasm’t going for the At-Large delegate slot too.
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p>Oh, you never did return the call. Thank goodness someone told me not to hold my breath and why.
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p>
Robert Reich is currently a professor at UC-Berkeley, so I don’t think he’s a contender.
… and I would volunteer for his campaign if he ran … although I give you he can at times really channel Charles Sumner, as seen here in this, one of my favorite BF vids (Paraphrase: “If the gentleman wants to find out what’s in the bill, I suggest he reads it!” hahaha! Go Barney!)
Charley, Did Ed O’Reilly really leave such a bad taste in your mouth that you couldn’t bring yourself to type his name? He did garner over 150k votes (30%) in the primary with the seriously entrenched Kerry.
He didn’t get 30% of the vote. He got 1% of the vote, and 29% of people who wanted to vote for anyone but Kerry, for whatever reason.
I was a huge fan of O’Reilly, but know a lot of his votes were from people relieved to have an alternative to Kerry as well as votes for a senator who reflects the beliefs of Massachusetts. In a contested primary, I imagine we’ll have better-heeled candidates who cover that same turf.
O’Reilly has already staked out that ‘same turf’. Put a half-dozen or so of those typical pols in the race, then ask yourself who will bring a refreshing change to our Senate?
He lives in Gloucester, which is Bruce Tarr’s district. Senator Tarr too often goes unopposed and O’Reilly did better than his statewide average in many towns in that district. Jamie Eldridge was just elected to the State Senate, I believe at least partly because of the connections he made during a federal race. I’d like to see Ed O’Reilly try a similar move.
Can anyone with his ear try to persuade him? If he’s serious about actually winning a race, this would be a good one to pick.
Capuano has to be a top candidate, above a lot of the names mentioned.
I’m quite confident that Capuano would have a solid chance if he ran.
he does have quite a chance. And he’s interested. He’s in an interesting position- too liberal for some and too conservative for others (in terms of voters from MA), but still well respected. And from Somerville!
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p>In the next couple years, it will be inevitable that there will be a vacancy from MA in the Senate.
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p>McGovern, Capuano, you heard it here.
I don’t know that I would discount Lynch so quickly. If it’s a crowded field, and he’s the only conservative of the bunch, He might be able to sneak in the back door.
Lynch would need a very crowded field to play the sole conservative card to victory…but that very crowded field he would need would ultimately be an advantage to the only female in the race…and over 50% of the voters would be female, the majority of whom are pro-choice (or for whom abortion is not their top issue at all, they just would want to send a woman, finally, to the US Senate.
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p>With both Lynch and Coakley in a crowded field, I think advantage goes to Coakley…she has some recognition statewide…who in Holyoke knows Lynch?
by the unusual dynamics of this race.
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p>Let say Nikki Tsongas has zero interest in the Senate or any other position other than the one she’s got. She still has a strong reason to run: she might be in a tight race with Tierney (say) after redistricting.
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p>Running for Senate in a special election lets Tsongas campaign in towns not currently in her district. Since it’s a special election she doesn’t have to give up her seat to run. And if that’s not reason enough consider that the same dynamics give Tierney a chance and a reason to run in her district.
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p>So even if she’s not running to win, Tsongas has good reasons to be the second woman candidate in the race. Disadvantage Coakley. But so does the rest of the delegation, each of whom might carve something from any of the “crowded advantage” frontrunners.
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p>I generally agree that the dynamics favor candidates who are known statewide–Capuano scored his 23% victory in 1998 largely on the strength of Somerville’s share of the district–but its anybody’s guess how this crazy thing will play out.
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p>Personally I think it’s tactically stupid and also undemocratic to allow a minority that small to select the nominee. I wish the party would hold a preliminary or use preferential voting to let the majority of votes pick the candidate.
Good points but Tsongas has a full plate just figuring out how to do her current job well enough to discourage GOP opponents. She will not be a second woman in this Special Election. As for the race that will emerge when we have to eliminate one congressman, it was always assumed that it would be a Meehan-Tierney contest and that Meehan would emerge as the winner. I think it will still be those 2 districts vying for survival…and the women (around the state and on Emily’s list) will not let that seat slip away. There will be a full court press to keep Tsongas. If she got in the Senate Special she would be seen as a spoiler and the women from all over the state who went to lowell to help her would not be happy about it.
Lowell is not particularly close to Salem and I don’t think that part of the state is losing population faster than any other. Is there something I’m missing here?
By the way, I’m not saying I’d support him. I just think he’d have a chance to pull it off.
Although I kind of wish she’d stick around as AG. I think she’s been doing a good job there and she’s my top choice to follow Patrick as Governor. I see her more as a strong executive than a legislator, although I imagine she’d be good as a senator as well.
AGs have a hard time making the leap to Governor (take a look back at those who tried)…the crime and punishment career does not translate to voters for the corner office for some reason…that’s why Coakley is preparing for the US Senate run which she would, as the only woman, be a front-runner…not a guaranteed winner, but a good bet…
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p>If she liked being an administrator (which is what Gov and AG are), she wouldn’t be looking at US Senate seat before her first AG term was up…
But given Senator Kennedy’s health condition, and possibility he’ll step down, there may be two open seats if Kerry takes Ambassador to China or UN or something (do you really think he’d get SoS?)
He will be the head of SFRC if he stays in the Senate, not to mention a very senior Senator on Finance, Commerce and Small Business.
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p>Not to mention he was the Senate delegation to Bali, and would like be part of the delegation to Copenhagen. He is very likely to be a key player in getting any treaty passed in the Senate – both because of being chair of SFRC and being the most knowledgeable Senator.
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p>I assume that if SoS was something Kerry wanted badly – he would get it – he is considered to be very qualified with 24 years on SFRC and he has been a foreign policy advisor to Obama, and there are few people (if any) who were more helpful to Obama. It might be that given his committees, he is more valuable to Obama in the Senate.
Obviously money’s not the only factor, but it’s worth noting that state-level officers cannot use their existing campaign funds for a run for a federal office, so that has to be an added hurdle for Coakley, Cahill, Murray, etc.
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p>Cash-on-hand among the Congressional delegation:
Markey $2.7mil
Neal $2.2mil
Tierney $1.3 mil
Delahunt $1.2mil
Lynch $1.2mil
Capuano $920K
Frank $820K
Mcgovern $313K
Olver $158K
Tsongas $28K
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p>Among other big names:
Meehan $4.8mil
Joe Kennedy $1.9mil
Gabrieli $2bil
O’Reilly $10K
transition team. the speculation is rather ridiculous.
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p>The SFRC was the committee that he most wanted to be on when he entered the Senate. Heading it would likely be something he would want. As Senator, there is a much broader range of things he can work on.
Why do you assume that anonymous sources know anything? With the exception of Rahm Emanuel, all leaks and rumors about the transition have proven to be wrong. Now maybe JK will be SoS, but the speculation is ridiculous.
with a little backpedal…next thing you know they will be posting that he really loves his job and would never dream of giving up the fight for the people of Massachusetts on the Senate floor just to take a cabinet post! (that won’t be offered)
I’d like to send a fresh face to D.C., with that said you can cross off all of the current members of the house. That leaves the following contenders:
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p>Martha Coakley – On the plus side she is a female and smart, but let’s be honest, she’s has been a humdrum AG to date and the press has given her a very lengthy honeymoon. I don’t think she has any money for the run, but her popularity could help her in that regard.
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p>Tim Cahill – He’s got the intellect and drive to be a very good candidate and his experience as state treasurer during this financial crisis will set him apart from others. Will the media give him points for expressing concerns about the state’s finances early on? Probably not. So he would have a long road ahead.
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p>Chris Gabrieli – Money is not a factor here, which would be a big help if he faced off with Mitt. His experience in business and ideas of education would be intriguing. But does he want to go through another campaign.
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p>Therese Murray – Did Wilkerson and Marzilli knock her out of contention?