Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Where we are, with less than 48 hours to go

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That final uptick on the blue trend line is definitely change I can believe in.  I confess that the little dip right before it had me a bit worried.  I mean, don’t get me wrong — I will not relax until the results are in.  But I feel better than I did before.  Some of our differently-winged colleagues had persuaded themselves that a one-day apparent outlier poll from Zogby had created a tie.  But the next day, Zogby showed Obama at +10, and offered this sage advice:

Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else’s) health.

On the state level, again, things are much as they were; Nate reports some tightening here and there, but no game-changers on the horizon.  On the other hand, EaBo reports an email from McCain “campaign” manager Rick Davis, making the following peculiar claim — this is the first bullet point under “State Polls”:

Iowa – Our numbers in Iowa have seen a tremendous surge in the past 10 days. We took Obama’s lead from the double digits to a very close race. That is why you see Barack Obama visiting the state in the final days, trying to stem his losses. It is too little, too late. Like many other Midwestern states, Iowa is moving swiftly into McCain’s column.

I don’t know what polls Davis is looking at, but apparently pollster.com doesn’t have access to them.  Here’s what they’ve got from Iowa for the last week or so:

Des Moines Register: Obama +17 (!)

SurveyUSA: Obama +15

Research2000: Obama +14

Rasmussen: Obama +8

Mason-Dixon: Obama +11

Marist: Obama +10

Big Ten: Obama +13

Which works out to trend lines like this:

Maybe I lack Mr. Davis’s powers of discernment, but I don’t see a lot of hope for Team McCain in those data.

In any event, the point is this: the Obama campaign is in a very good place.  But none of it matters if his supporters don’t do everything they can to get the result that the polls say he can get.  Here’s what you can do — just do it.

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Comments

  1. is the pretty thorough Gallup poll, which shows a strong national lead.

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    As the 2008 presidential campaign draws to an end, the final USA Today/Gallup pre-election poll shows Barack Obama with a 55% to 44% advantage over John McCain in the allocated estimate of the 2008 presidential vote.

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    p>Still, no stone should be left unturned, nor good vote not cast.

  2. Just to see how the other team rallies the troops.

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    p>Nothing has given me more confidence than the Rick Davis email that you mention.  

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    p>Some other pearls from that 10/31 email:

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    p>” In fact, the Gallup national tracking survey showed the race in a virtual tie 2 days this week. “

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    p>Wuh?  Too bad even the Gallup Likely Voter I model now shows it at 53-42. (in fact, so does the the LV II model, while the registered voters cut is 53-40).

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    p>More:

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    Iowa – Our numbers in Iowa have seen a tremendous surge in the past 10 days. We took Obama’s lead from the double digits to a very close race. That is why you see Barack Obama visiting the state in the final days, trying to stem his losses. It is too little, too late. Like many other Midwestern states, Iowa is moving swiftly into McCain’s column.

    The Southwest – It is no secret that Republican candidates in the Southwest have to focus on winning over enough Latino and Hispanic voters in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado to carry them to victory. John McCain has overcome challenges Republicans face, and has made up tremendous ground in these states with these voters. For these voters, the choice has become clear, and you have seen a big change in the numbers. John McCain is now winning enough voters to perform within the margin of error – putting these states within reach.

    Colorado – Barack Obama tried to outspend our campaign in Colorado during the early weeks of October and finish off our candidate in Colorado. However, after our visit early this week, we saw a tremendous rebound in our poll position, and Colorado is back on the map.

    Ohio and Pennsylvania – Everyone knows that vote rich Ohio and Pennsylvania will be key battlegrounds for this election. Between the two: 41 electoral votes and no candidate has gotten to the White House without Ohio. Senator McCain and Governor Palin have been campaigning non-stop in these key battleground states and tonight Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has pumped up our campaign at a rally in Columbus. Our position in these states is strong and undecided voters continue to have a very favorable impression of our candidate.

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    p>And

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    On the Ground

       * Our field organization has tremendous energy and is out-performing the Bush campaign at the same time in 2004. This week our field organization crossed a huge threshold and began reaching more than one million voters per day, and by week’s end will have contacted more than 5 million voters. Our phone centers are full and our rate of voter contact is significantly out-pacing the Bush campaign in 2004. We have the resources to do the voter contact necessary to support the surge we are seeing in our polling with old fashioned grassroots outreach.

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    p>Compare that to the 538 team that has been reporting on empty McCain offices around the country.  Someone is lying.  It might be the 538 guys (if so, they are engaging in massive propaganda), but based on the rest of this email, I would bet that Mr. Davis is being a little fast and loose with the truth.

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    p>But nothing’s done yet, folks.

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    p>SEAL THE DEAL- get out there and GOTV.  There are tons of call centers today and tomorrow; start dialing.

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