Well, it’s apparently a done deal. Sources are now confirming that NH Gov. Lynch, reputed to be a Democrat, will name Bonnie Newman — definitely a Republican — to take over Judd Gregg’s soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat.
I’m not crazy about this. Since it’s no net change in the Senate (and no, I don’t think Newman will be much easier to beat than Gregg would’ve been, unless she falls flat on her face), we’re left with President Obama’s apparently deep-seated conviction that Judd Gregg is the right man for the job — second only to Bill Richardson. Maybe he’s right. It’s just that there’s nothing in Gregg’s background or accomplishments, such as they are, that would suggest that to be the case.
Maybe the grand gesture of bipartisanship is more important than what the Commerce Secretary actually does. Maybe this will pay dividends in getting a few GOP Senators to vote for cloture on the stimulus bill. If so, maybe it’s worth it. I hope so.
But look, if Gregg said I won’t take the job if you don’t promise me a Repub replacement, and Lynch promised, especially if Obama asked, I think Lynch did the right thing. I hear Newman is pretty moderate (maybe even more so than Gregg?)
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p>I think this is a pretty decent shot at a pickup in 2010 no matter who’s in the seat. Especially if Paul Hodes runs.
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p>The real sticking point for me is your last one – I don’t see Gregg as really some sort of awesome standout in this area. Except for his unapologetic business-friendliness.
rather than Newman who will likely run for re-election in 2010. IMHO Lynch royally screwed this one up.
that Newman has said she is intending to step down in 2010 rather than run for a full term.
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p>If convincing Lynch to appoint a Republican was the only way Obama could get Gregg to accept the nomination, I don’t think Newman was necessarily a bad choice. If she stands by her word and steps down in 2010, we could have a wide-open race for the seat, and a greater chance that a Democrat could take it.
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p>I agree with everyone David, though, that Gregg doesn’t seem to have any outstanding qualifications worth too big of a compromise.
Gregg was in a very, very weak position. A huge part of me thinks we’d have had a better shot beating him than winning completely open race. We had a better shot beating Sununu than a random Republican, too, which helps explain why he was handily beaten. Gregg wasn’t in great fundraising shape and not looking forward to a tough reelection fight against a very popular Hodes at the age of 62 and after years of not having competitive reelection campaigns. Would have been his first tough race in well over a decade, from what I’ve read.
Not too shabby for a NH race with two years until the election. The Lynch appointee (whomever!) starts at $0.
but $900k isn’t that much, not when a huge chunk of NH is in the metro Boston market. Because of our overlap with NH, it’s actually not cheap to run a media campaign there.
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p>I’m not sure how much Hodes has on hand, but I bet he would have out raised Gregg with very, very little trouble – and his base of strength (his district) is where the Boston media overlaps with NH – so he’s already pretty popular there.
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p>I still feel as though Gregg would be better to run against than a random, younger, Republican – who can’t be tied down by Gregg’s Bush/Iraq record. I’m not going to say that this will definitely be the cases, only that Gregg almost certainly would have lost a reelection, whereas there’s the chance for a strong Republican without a ton of baggage to get into that race to take on Hodes. Who that person is, I don’t know. We’ll see. Maybe this incoming appointee ignores her promise that’s not on camera and runs anyway. If it’s not on camera, it doesn’t count.
Cash on Hand / debt:
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p>Shea-Porter 35,329/0
Hodes: 56,378/0
Gregg: 897,845/0
Newman: 0/0
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p>I think that’s a distinct step in our direction.
Lynch should be primaried. I’ll work on that campaign myself.
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p>I don’t mind a caretaker moderate republican, but if it’s a Susan Collins wannabe who’s running for reelection in 2 years, Lynch should pay a high price from NH Democrats.
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p>The bottom line: Lynch didn’t have to listen to Gregg and we didn’t need Gregg in commerce. Gregg doesn’t get to make that pick, it’s Lynch’s pick and Lynch will have to live with it.
Lynch is enormously popular in NH, especially within the party. There’s nothing legally binding to anything Newman may have said about running again, so the only consequences, if any, would be to her credibility. If she does run then we should run an aggressive campaign for the seat rather than whine about it. Besides, she chaired Republicans for Lynch, so this seems like everyone wins: Gregg gets a Republican, Lynch rewards a supporter. No, Lynch didn’t HAVE to listen to Gregg, but he probably listened to Obama who wanted this to work. Plus he got rid of a stronger GOP incumbent in the process. I guess this is another instance where we disagree on the value of partisanship for its own sake.
— except the American people, who instead of a creative Commerce Secretary get a tool. But hey, as long as Gregg and Lynch are happy, that’s all that matters.
…I have more faith than you do that the President we just elected knows what he is doing.
I mean, that IS who the Secretary is supposed to be working with. How would an ANTI-business secretary help out Obama?
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p>[I have decided to forego jokes about how the Adminsitration had to leave their party to find somebody who had actually met a payroll, knew how to add, and so on…]
With all the scandals – including money ones – from your party for the last 8 (god, no, longer than that) years, I’d hardly be casting any stones regardless. I think we’d all know who’d lose that game, Blago, Spitzer, and the last two tax snafus notwithstanding.
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p>RE commerce and business friendliness…if it’s the biz-friendly nature of the last 8 years of Bush, no thanks. Like we need more giveaways and lackadaisical anything-goes as-long-as-you’re-a-big-rich-corporation attitudes.
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p>As long as Gregg does as he is told by Obama, he’ll do OK. But if I were Obama, I’d take any advice from Gregg with a huuuuuuge helping of salt.
that he has “tax issues” like seemingly all of the Dem picks…
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screw up the country issues like we had before.