According to their latest OCPF filings:
Guy A has raised $285,000 so far this year.
Guy B has raised $389,000 so far this year.
Guy A raised $709k last year.
Guy B raised $1.05 million last year.
A is the Gov; B is the Lt. Gov.
Any readers of tea leaves out there?
I’ll be first to admit: I know less about political fundraising than Julio Lugo knows about fielding his position.
I read that the Gov can get around the $500 law this way.
Also I think last time around the unions were able to donate $3 million or something.
So maybe the normal fundraising doesn’t tell the whole story. Or even most of the story.
Still…?
Please share widely!
Murray’s fundraising helps Patrick, since once the primaries are done, they can essentially spend as a ticket. I think.
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p>Also, LtGov is a really important job and everything, but he’s probably still got a bit more time on his hands than the Gov for things like fundraisers.
…they have to start from scratch and run separately pre-primary. Theoretically, the Governor might not get a primary, but someone could challenge Murray for the LG spot. I’m not at all saying this is what will happen, just that it’s allowed.
Goldstein, I too thought that this was odd and maybe a sign Deval might just quit instead of run for what might be the toughest gubernatorial re-election bid this year next to Corzines and Pattersons. That said, recently he rehired David Plouffe who was his successful manager last time around and also had some recent success with getting some funny named Illinois Senator a promotion. Devals running and he’s in it, the only question left is will he win it?
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p>My answer: No, and the BMG bubble notwithstanding, I am convinced his re-election is DOA. No incumbent polling under 30% has a prayer this far out.
That’s the key phrase. Can you show that it’s never been done? My experience is that 15 months until primary and 17 until the general is quite a long time in politics.
I think Deval’s in a poor place to begin running for governor…but it’s still better than anyone else’s position.
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p>30% this far out merely means that not enough people are paying attention (normal) and those that are await alternatives before making commitments (also normal).
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p>At this point alternatives look to be either nobody or Tim Cahill (but I repeat myself…=^) If Cahill enters the race, he’s got the fundraising ability to suck the remainder of the oxygen out of the race and it’s just him and Patrick. No way Patrick loses to Cahill. No way. As much as Patrick is disliked by the state apparatchiks, next to Cahill it’s like a love-in…
but it’s not like you need the most funds to win–you need the most votes, and at least enough funds to campaign. Governor Patrick won last time without having the biggest account, and if need be, that’s the way it will happen again.
Who would not be in his position in a poll in this economy? On one side you have Conservatives yelling CUT, CUT, CUT, On the other you have Liberal Progressives yelling for new revenue and then in the Middle you have the middle class slowly slipping below the surface. Looks like a scene from the Titanic.
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p>Deval although having a few clumsy moments as Governor usually inflicted by a staff unable to gauge the wind, has kept true to his commitments even with the lose in Revenues. He certainly would love to do more and we saw that in the first year as he was feeling his way around the system. But here again 16 years with out Democrats leading the Executive branch we Democrats looked like little kids who still needed training wheels.
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p>I cannot see anyone who is not coming from a worse position wanting to jump into this fire. Until we see the economy start to really turn around no one wants to risk owning this economic reality. We are likely 3-4 years in best estimate to seeing any kind of growth and that is only if two things occur one the Fed can keep printing new Dollars and the Chinese do not get wind of our flooding the market and they are unable to get their own population to take up the slack of the down turn in consumption.
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p>Likely to occur will be Federal tax increases in form or another and double digit interest rates which will threaten to thrust us into the same situation we experienced in the late 70’s early 80’s YUK!
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p>So Deval barring any major missteps should be able to weather the storm as the deck pitches beneath him but he is certainly in for a rough ride.
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p>As Usual Just my Opinion