Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Barney Frank Rules Out a Senate Run

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Cross-posted from Blue News Tribune.

WBUR has the story here. The Senate race comes up near the end.

Interestingly, he said he would have run if John Kerry had been elected in 2004, because Democrats were then the minority. But now, he is a committee chair and is getting things done. Always the pragmatist.

This is a big deal. I think Barney would have been the frontrunner.

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Comments

  1. Who else is out there who could have beaten him?  This seemed to be Frank’s moment, given his visibility in dealing with the banking situation and his great performance in that recent town hall meeting confrontation.  He seems to be thinking like Ted Kennedy, though, in putting a priority on governing.  

    • So people like me would flock to Barney. I like Capuano, but fairly or unfairly, he’s seen as less progresive. Scratch that — unfairly.

  2. Because of a decades old glass ceiling, our MA congressmen have much seniority in the House, where the ‘small ponds’ are.

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    p>Frank is chair of Financial Services, Markey is chair of Energy (Waxman-Markey), etc.  Our least senior/influential (setting aside the Widow Tsongas) are Capuano and Delahunt.

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    p>To change bodies means going to the bottom of the pile, to earn your seniority all over again.  Just as Kenendy got over the Presidency in 1980, I imagine most of our Reps. will get over the Senate.

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    p>No matter how tidy it would be to get rid of one existing Rep. when we will lose a seat, neither Jr. Rep. has much of a statewide base, though.  I expect them to lose the Dem. primary to Coakley.

        • While I would argue that most of the Reps that have seniority are going to stay in this case, I would disagree that is usually the case. Most Senators usually come out of the house and many have used their chairmanships to gun for the Senate. Stars in the Senate can also make great stars in the House.

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          p>But I would agree that in MA the delegation is quiet until a vacancy opens up.

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          p>I would disagree that this is a bad time for either Lynch or Capuano. Both have high profiles in Boston based districts, remember this is a special election so it will likely be low-turnout in spite of its unprecedented stature so getting vote totals in urban areas is vital to getting the victory. It is also winner take all so a candidate simply needs a plurality to win.

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          p>Lastly you are completely wrong that Coakley has the advantage going in. I would give the advantage to Lynch instead. Coakley and Capuano are going after the same voters ideologically as well as geographically. They are going to split the liberal vote statewide as well as split the ‘toney towns’ like Cambridge, Brookline, Newburyport, etc. while Lunch has free rein over the ‘collar towns’. They are both household names in Middlesex county and will likely divy up the vote there. The Boston vote, Western MA, and MetroNorth will likely carry the day in a low turnout election and I suspect the bulk of the Boston vote will go solidly to Lynch along with the South Shore and the Cape.

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          p>So the real swing voters will be out West and MetroNorth and I suspect that the pro-gun pro-life Lynch will likely score better in Worcester and out West than either Capuano or Coakley. As for MetroNorth I suspect that again the ‘toney’ voters in Marblehead, Newburyport, will be split will Lunch carries the ‘collar’ towns like Burlington, Salem, and Gloucester.

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          p>As for money and endorsements again Capuano and Coakley will be tapping into the same liberal constituencies. One suspects the NARAL and Emily’s-List endorsements will go to Coakley because she is a female candidate. The MoveOn, BMG, Sierra Club, interest style liberal groups will back Capuano.

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          p>Meanwhile Lynch will also have organized labor solidly in his column which helps him carry the collar towns while also winning over the independents who can also vote in this open primary. I would argue he has the edge.

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          p>That said if McGovern runs he could carry Western MA, though again the liberal firing squad gives the moderate-conservative Lynch the ultimate edge in a plurality election.  

    • that Martha Coakley is not only well positioned, but would make an extraodinary candidate and a valuable asset to the Massachusetts delegation.

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      p>Martha Coakley is passionate and effective in her pursuit of justice and will bring that same energy and concern to any office she holds.

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