Here’s the link:
Anybody got a feel for whether the three way race helps or hurts the governor’s chances?
Please share widely!
Globe Reports Cahill to Announce Run for Governor Tomorrow
Reality-based commentary on politics.
Considering that the last batch of polls showed Deval at 19% approval overall and over 60% disapproval within his own party, I would argue that Cahill actually hurts the Governor.
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p>Others from David to Howie Carr have argued that Cahill v Baker v Patrick splits the anti-Deval vote and helps the Governor eek out a plurality. He would be highly weakened from that election and likely ineffective for the next four years, but he would at least still have his job (until he resigns to join the Obama administration or to have more time to peddle his book). This is an outcome his supporters are now reduced to counting on though an outcome they really shouldn’t hope for or relish.
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p>As for me, I think the Cahill entry ends up hurting Patrick more. There are a lot of Democrats and independents angry at Deval but still reluctant to vote for Republicans (because of Bush, RomneySwiftCellucciWeld fatigue or otherwise) who would be attracted to Cahill. Furthermore independents are the largest group of voters in MA and could be up for grabs by Cahill more so than by Baker. Also independents tend to be less informed than partisans regarding candidates and might just presume Cahill to be a moderate, middle of the roader, not connected to the Beacon Hill hackery and the fresh face they need. Lastly I would argue Cahill is more likely to win with social conservatives than Baker because he is ambiguous on those issues while Baker is just as socially liberal as Deval.
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p>If Mihos wins the GOP opposition than I see Cahill doing a lot more poorly since they are both candidates in the populist mode. But being stuck in the midlde between the aloof and inept Patrick, and the Rockefeller Republican Baker, Cahill could clean house on blue-collar and middle class resentment, clean up the independents and disaffected Dems, and plausibly win. Cahill needs to win the Tom Reilly, Gabrielli, and Hillary Clinton voters to win. Its a longshot race but its entirely possible.
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p>That said I think Cahill’s candidacy is the result of two poor political calculations on his part
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p>1) Not to run against Deval within the primary
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p>With over 60% of Democrats opposing Deval Cahill had a great chance to unseat Deval from within the Democratic party. Again if he had won the Tom Reilly/Gabrelli, Hillary Clinton voters that’d have been enough to unseat Deval. Frankly I suspect Murray and other state power brokers would prefer him to the Governor anyway and would have then backed him after his upset. Also it makes the race a two way one between him and Baker and arguably his statewide recognition, the D, and Baker’s inexperience as both a politician and within government could have been used against him. Cahill also is a more plausible populist than the plutocratic Baker. Also Cahill more than Baker would have appealed to independents even as a D due to his social moderation and fiscal conservatism.
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p>2) Not to wait until Ted died
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p>Cahill had a bigger warchest than Coakley, a better/longer history campaigning statewide, more name recognition, and a Tim for Senate campaign could easily have been concieveable. His Senate ambitions were also apparent during the Kerry succession. I’d argue if he had stayed put as Democrat or run as an independent against the Dem nominee he’d have had a much easier shot at gaining the Senate seat then he does now as an independent looking at the Corner Office.
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I think this is about the only way that Deval Patrick can win re-election. In fact I’d be doing a celebratory jig right now if I was in Camp Deval (which I will be since Cahill is a hack, imho.)
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p>There are now two candidates of “change” to split the anti-incumbent vote. The voters Cahill takes are more likely to rub off from Baker, who let’s face it, is closer in idealogy.
I see where your conventional wisdom is coming from and respect that it could turn out to be right. Those that disfavor the incumbent are likely to split the vote with those that do.
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p>That said, I think Cahill could take on a lot of Democrats and independents that would be disinclined to vote for a Republican, even a Weld style one. Similarly I could see Cahill taking socially conservative voters away from Baker.
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p>That said we will have to see what kind of campaign Baker and Cahill run. In my view, Baker by not taking a stance and opposing organized gambling missed a huge opportunity to siphon off progressives dissatisfied with Deval. While Bob, David, and Charley can make all the claims they want about ‘Bakers GOP’ being against healthcare, gays, abortions, and puppies most reasonable progressives can see that there is no difference on the social issues between Baker and Deval. So it becomes a question of who you think can better run the state away from the hacks, who offers more change, more progress, etc.
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p>So if both Baker and Cahill run as Beacon Hill outsiders that are above the hackocracy and offer a fiscally conservative alternative to Deval then I could see them appealing to the same base of voters.
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p>If Cahill was smart, he would be to the left of Deval on education to snag the teachers unions endorsement, to the left on flag details (grab the police unions support), to the left on union labor in general. He would also have to be to the right of Deval AND Baker on the marriage question (personally in favor of gay marriage but support a ballot question) to win over social conservatives, and run to the middle on fiscal policy and healthcare. Without a base to appease he actually has the best shot of broadly appealing to the electorate. Baker can’t be too centrist since he has to overcome the right wing populism of Dick Morris and his puppet Mihos. They might force him to make no taxes pledges that will hurt him in the general (he already has made a few of those) and otherwise keep him on the defensive with his Big Dig ties, etc.
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p>Thus while they squabble Cahill could emerge as the practical, scandal free, alternative to Deval. Mihos can’t win the nomination but he can kneecap Baker. If Cahill goes after Deval hard on Aloisi, Grabauskas, Wilkerson, etc. while offering to lower income taxes while stopping state spending cuts that hurt the public service unions he could emerge as a formiddable candidate.
You suggest Cahill being “left” of Patrick on
* teacher’s unions
* flagmen
* labor unions in general
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p>and being “right” of Patrick and Baker on marriage
* ballot option
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p>will win social conservatives? Social conservatives in my experience also loathe all unions they’re not in, and even sometimes the one they are in. You really think a ballot option on marriage (which would likely fail) would win them over despite promising the farm to labor? I’m not so sure.
actually, not only does cahill help patrick, but to the degree cahill goes left on some issues, like k-12, it STRENGTHENS patrick, b/c it allows him to show some moderate credential (while still keeping the MTA, they’re simply not going to back an independent).
Damn, he really does love them slot parlors, don’t he?
Almost as much as the BMG Editors love that quote.
you’ve got to admit it’s a spicy quote….a typo here, or a typo there, would render it enough heat to flag the censors in some mediums. Jimmy Tingle should get to work on this one soon.
From the AP story:
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p>”An individual familiar with Cahill’s plans told The Associated Press that Cahill will announce he’s seeking the state’s top political post.”
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p>And by “An individual familiar with Cahill’s plans” they mean EVERYONE. Seriously, I saw this story and chuckled, Cahill made it painfully obvious he was running a long time ago. But hey, a formal announcement gets him some more press, so probably a good move.
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p>Other breaking news: Pope will announce he is Catholic, Oscar to disclose he lives in a trash can
Boy Timmy Cahill has the art of timing down. What better time to announce for Governor? It’s not like there’s anything else going on in Massachusetts politics these days….