UPDATE (by David): Here’s Lynch’s statement:
After thorough consideration I have decided that I will not be a candidate for the Special U.S. Senate race to succeed Edward M. Kennedy.
The challenge of putting together the resources and organization necessary to wage a competitive statewide campaign in less than 90 days is insurmountable.
Margaret and I are thankful for the words of encouragement and support over the last few weeks.
I have been given a huge honor and responsibility by the families of the 9th Congressional District of Massachusetts. I will continue to try to live up to their highest expectations.
One thing I wonder is whether some of these guys are taking a chance that Coakley will not make a big impression over the next two years, and that they have a better shot at taking her out in a 2012 primary than in beating her in the special, given her advantage of a statewide organization already in place? Is that too farfetched?
I guess that means its Capuano v Coakley. I suspect part of the reason is the beating Lynch took at the labor breakfast and perhaps a desire to stay ‘in the neighborhood’ which he can still do as a Congressmen. Also Markey and Tierney backing out really hurt his chances of hoping the liberals split again.
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p>Well with Lynch out I guess I can go from leaning to supporting Capuano in the primary though I will be proud to vote for Coakley on the general election ballot (I say will instead of would b/c she’s got it in the bag now)
He was supposed to announce Wednesday at 4 at Faneuil Hall. In less than 24 hours I got two phone calls: first telling me he was in, then telling me he’s out.
If she wins, she’ll have two years to establish herself. Incumbents losing primaries aren’t unheard of, but are pretty rare.
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p>If you’re looking for speculation, I’m wondering if Paglucia’s interest made a difference. Not only does the race have someone with an existing state-wide organization, it now has someone who can BUY a state-wide organization.
I think one of her strategies was that a gaggle of congressmen would split the vote in that demographic. Now it appears Coakley and Capuano – straight up (forgive me for thinking the Celtics and City Year guys aren’t going to get any traction).
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p>If you had asked me a week ago, I would have told you that this race was Coakley’s to lose, the way the field is shaping up…she just may.
Good reality contact there. This special election will be brutal both in cost and the primary will be nasty AND the actual special election campaign will be compressed but very nasty AND expensive.
I’m sure it wasn’t for any magnanimous reason, but was solely for the reason that the money and support weren’t there. For me, he was a throwback to the old days of South Boston politics, something best left in the past.
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p>I don’t think anyone is staying out in hopes of having a stronger chance in 2012. In the world of politics, incumbency is everything. Never give a pol an opportunity to get it. They would have to royally screw up for you to have a chance to defeat them at the next go around. At the worst, a Senator Coakley would be a mediocre back bencher, not enough to cost her her seat if she still wanted it.
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p>For now, I’m supporting Capuano. I don’t like Coakley’s history of climbing the ranks on the backs of publicity during tragic trials, just as her predecessor Tom Reilly. It just smacks too much of opportunism. However, if she should be the last Democrat standing when the election takes place, then I will vote for her over Brown, or whichever Republican runs.
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p>Speaking of Brown, I noticed this morning that his spokesman is none other than Eric Fernhstrom (sp?), Mitt Romney’s attack dog, so you can be sure that a campaign with him will be nasty and full of sharp language. Don’t let the pretty boy, Romney lite appearance fool you.
Lynch’s last-moment decision makes me think:
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p>1. He realized the labor unions wouldn’t support him after he threw them under the bus re: health care reform.
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p>2. He realized the majority voters do not want an anti-abortion Senator.
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p>3. He feared that he and Capuano would compete for many of the same voters, thereby handing the election to Coakley.
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p>4. He realized that the rest of the MA delegation and their people would surely help Capuano (unofficially) over him.
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p>Capuano knew all this, too, reviewed it point-by-point with Lynch, and privately asked him not to run. Perhaps he arranged with Pelosi to secure Lynch a leadership post in the House, or to protect his district from gerrymandering. It’s also possible Capuano has the (unofficial) blessing of the Kennedy’s to open up his seat for a Joe, Jr. campaign.
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p>With Cap the only Congressmen in the race, the election can proceed with all of his House colleagues (unofficially) helping to defeat Coakley, and Joe, Jr. in the on-deck circle.
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p>A happy, stress-free delegation all-around…
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p>It’s all speculation, of course, but the way this played out has the unmistakable appearance of an “arrangement.”
…that every other House member will automatically support Capuano?
But given how much they work together in DC it certainly seems a reasonably likely. Can’t say I know much about their personal relations with Coakley. Without Lynch, there are no other Congressional colleagues to compete with for support.
First, AFAIK, redistricting is handled by each state, not directed from DC. While I’m sure they will try to apply pressure to get things as they want, the plan will be locally designed.
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p>Second, Coakley, Capuano, and whoever else runs are running in the election scheduled for January (?) to fill out the remainder of Kennedy’s term. Whoever wins will have 2 years to complete Ted’s term before having to run again if they want a full term of their own. However, in those 2 years, unless they screw up royally, they will have the armor of incumbency strongly in their favor, and it’s unlikely that Joe Jr, or one of the other Congressmen would even take them on. The only question then would be who would the Republicans run. Hopefully not another Jack E Robinson.
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p>Lastly, back to redistricting. MA is most likely going to lose a Congressional seat. If we want to retain the people we have representing us in DC, then having one of them, in this case Capuano move over to the Senate, with the others retaining seats, but in reconfigured districts is a way to do that. An interesting piece of political trivia, is the connection between Capuano and the Kennedys. JFK represented the district before moving to the Senate. His nephew Joe Jr represented it during his years in Congress, and Capuano represents the same people, today.
This is because it is majority – minority and therefore protected by the Voters Rights Act. I suppose Southie could be added to the district, but Lynch’s centerism would seem a poor fit for the a district that gave Obama 86% of it’s votes.
Capuano’s district could get bits of Lynch’s district, as could a few other CDs… effectively putting the squeeze on Lynch anyway. Sure there’d still be 9 CDs and 9 incumbent Congressmen, but Lynch might just plain lose in a primary.
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p>It’s tricky math — you can’t squeeze the balloon too hard in one place or it will deform the shape of the balloon elsewhere.
Everyone here by knows perfectly well by know that you don’t like Lynch. I don’t like him either, but I don’t feel the compulsion to say so 100 times using the same stale joke. Please stop.
He stopped misspelling “Brylcream” when I pointed it out. Now, he misspells it “Brylcreeem”. Go figger.
Without Lynch in i won’t need to hear that retarded joke over and over. Also I suspect Atticus might be in the 4th grade still so we shouldn’t say that sarcastically.
Lynch’s sister charged with assault