On October 27, 2009 Prof. Barry Bluestone gave a pre-release presentation of the Greater Boston Housing Report Card 2009
As part of that presentation, Prof. Bluestone stated that the United States is in the midst of a third – but undeclared – civil war. He described the three “civil wars” as follows:
1. First civil war: 1861-1865 regarding staying a unified country and eliminating slavery, and “Thank God the North won.”
2. Second civil war: Again between the North and South as to where manufacturing would be located, in the late 1980s-early 1990s – and the South won.
3. Third, and current “civil war” – is for where the productive young adults, ages 25- 45 will live and work. As the bulk of the baby boomers retire, the location of these young adults will determine which states have the revenue to maintain their infrastructure and improve their programs. More than 50% of state revenue comes from taxes on earned income – and the post 65 baby boomers are a decreasing source of earned income and an increasing source of expenditure.
According to Bluestone, the single most important factor as to where these young, working adults will live is affordable housing, including rentals. The very bad news is that at this time the Boston area is the second most expensive place for housing in the United Startes, behind only San Diego. Even New York City and Honolulu are cheaper to rent or buy housing in than the Boston Metro area.
You don’t have to take my word for this, though. Read the report, look at the graphs.
Unfortunately, as housing prices in this area for purchase have decreased somewhat, rental prices have increased, and the available housing for young families and young adults is getting more expensive, not less so.
This is very bad news.
As recently as last year, there were 90,000 unfilled and unfillable technical jobs in our state. Why? In part, our community colleges and state schools, whose graduates normally stay around, are not graduating enough students as private college and univerity students mostly leave the state after graduation, per MAPC. The Metropolitan Area Planning Commission has done some very interesting research in this area,which can be seen on its website.
Therefore, for long term sustainable growth, Massachusetts and the Boston area need to “win” the third civil war.
Winning the war for young adults to stay in or choose Massachusetts will require an investment not in companies like Evergreen Solar. What is required is investing in and building affordable housing, as well as subsidies to local community colleges and and universities. These schools graduate the technical workers, such as biotechnology and computer applications and web development, as well as good auto mechanics, HVAC, and the like – to decent living wage jobs of tomorrow. After all, repair of your car is not going to be outsourced to India or Malaysia.
Investment in large quantities of affordable housing NOW would provide current jobs – and keep those tax paying young workers able to live near their parents and grandparents. They would be the taxpayers of tomorrow.
Investment in public state education for today’s technical and hands-on jobs like auto mechanics, electricians, computer repair and HVAC would preserve and add to jobs now – and help Massachusetts win that “third civil war” by preventing erosion of productive young workers to other states.
We are losing population because we are not investing in affordable housing and public schools that teach the skills needed for the jobs young workers need in large enough numbers.
Here’s higher ed cuts — especially devastating to community colleges, the hottest, fastest, most accessible path to a living wage job and access to affordable housing programs. Please note that the replacement federal money is one time fiscal stimulus $$ which go away in FY fy20011.
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p>7066-0000 Department of Higher Education 1,933,249 -42,720 Reduces spending to reflect manager furlough savings.
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p>7066-0020 Nursing and Allied Health Education Workforce Development 1,000,000 -502,026 Reduces payroll and administrative expenses.
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p>7070-0065 Massachusetts State Scholarship Program 87,875,218 -14,236 Reduces to reflect manager furlough savings.
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p>7077-0023 Tufts School of Veterinary Medicine Program 2,500,000 -813,416 Reduces spending that is not affordable given the current revenue estimate.
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p>7100-0200 University of Massachusetts 411,898,263 -31,997,759 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7109-0100 Bridgewater State College 33,008,533 -2,564,225 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7110-0100 Fitchburg State College 23,218,646 -1,803,710 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7112-0100 Framingham State College 20,749,354 -1,611,886 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7113-0100 Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts 11,999,981 -932,203 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7114-0100 Salem State College 33,250,262 -2,583,003 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7115-0100 Westfield State College 19,388,959 -1,506,206 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7116-0100 Worcester State College 19,760,937 -1,535,102 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7117-0100 Massachusetts College of Art 12,692,483 -985,999 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7118-0100 Massachusetts Maritime Academy 11,753,563 -913,060 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7502-0100 Berkshire Community College 7,834,053 -609,082 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7503-0100 Bristol Community College 13,505,682 -1,050,039 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7504-0100 Cape Cod Community College 9,660,300 -751,069 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7505-0100 Greenfield Community College 7,699,155 -598,594 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7506-0100 Holyoke Community College 15,655,462 -1,217,180 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7507-0100 Massachusetts Bay Community College 11,724,917 -911,588 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7508-0100 Massasoit Community College 16,986,829 -1,320,691 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7509-0100 Mount Wachusett Community College 10,715,906 -833,140 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7510-0100 Northern Essex Community College 16,000,413 -1,244,000 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7511-0100 North Shore Community College 17,201,414 -1,337,375 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7512-0100 Quinsigamond Community College 12,719,679 -988,929 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7514-0100 Springfield Technical Community College 20,619,201 -1,603,101 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7515-0100 Roxbury Community College 9,493,865 -738,129 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7516-0100 Middlesex Community College 16,763,954 -1,303,363 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources.
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p>7518-0100 Bunker Hill Community College 17,431,475 -1,355,262 Reduces spending through utilizing additional federal funding sources
This time, it’s different. The state is not going to see the same revenue levels as in 2000 or 2005. This trend has been occurring since the mid-1990’s when the middle-income folks started to leave the state, either for more opportunity elsewhere, or due to retirement.
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p>You cannot keep increasing tax rates to make up for revenue shortfalls. The tax revenue isn’t there anymore. You must cut state government.
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p>If you keep raising the tax rates without any attempt to cut government, you’ll end up in a California-like death spiral. Frankly, we’re already there.
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p>We raised the sales tax by 25%, in a recession! Did we suddenly get more income? I don’t think so.
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p>The bloated wages, perks, and pensions going to state workers is the problem. But it’s your cherished services that get cut instead. Pensions first! People later.
You make a living wage and you are taxed, and taxed, and taxed.
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p>You make a living wage and the state conficates it in fees, taxes, tolls.
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p>You make a living wage and your local taxes are killing you because the state legislature will mandate that all public employees become part of the state GIC public employees healthcare pool. The state legislature does not demand regionaliztion of schools, fire, police and DPW.
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p>We have a bloated state government that ravenously feeds off the taxpayer.
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p>Taxpayer monies are wasted on feel good programs.
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p>We live in a “nanny” state where the schools will dicatet to you what your kid will. and will not be exposed to (political indoctrination)
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p>Yes housing is high—what is “affordable” Some city project where you have to live next to some miscreant? No thanks.
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p>Massachusetts is dying a death by a thousand cuts. We are bleeding to death. Young people are moving out and welfare and public service users are moving in. We are fast approaching the tipping point because we throw open our arms and the freeloaders are arriving faster than we can steal (by taxes) those who are employed wages. It won’t work and it will not work. We got ourselves into this mess. We can at least go down gracefully and smiling waving to our children as they are packing up and fleeing.
I have one now in Texas and another in the Florida panhandle. No taxes—no onerous government and nice weather.
YOu retired from one government job – with pension.
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p>Your retired from a second government job – with a second pension.
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p>HINT – my taxes pay YOUR pension.
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p>But you would love to see the roads and bridges crumble and public education dismantled – as long as you pocket MY money. Funny man!
housing that is four times too expensive to own for my kids.
Mandatory medical insurance don’t help either or the property taxes.
Threats of quarrantine camps for flu resisters don’t help.
This state passes laws and regs that basically tell buisness – go elsewhere or kneel to us!
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p>Guess what – they are going elsewhere. I find it funny that people are surprised to find that excessive cost and taxation cause outflows – we are about to lose a congressman because of population decline and people just shrug their shoulders and cant connect the dots.
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p>I will make sure my kids get expsosed to other states where they can live cheaper, spend less time in traffic jams, avoid huge potholes that destroy their cars, park their car for free, do things without neededing a license or permit, this state is a laughing stock.
We are not losing population. Not today, not yesterday, nor the day before.
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p>The Commonwealth of MA has grown in population for its entire history.
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p>Here are the numbers since 1900 (From the census – http://www.census.gov/populati…
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p>1900 – 2805346
1950 – 4690514
1990 – 6016425
2000 – 6349113
2008 – 6497967
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p>We grow slowly, but we grow, and we do so consistently.
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p>That doesn’t mean we should work on more affordable housing, but it’s important not to lose sight of why housing is expensive – we’re small, we have little undeveloped land, we protect our natural resources from over development, and we have a favorable job market with high-paying jobs that enable people to pay more for housing.
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p>With that said, we are not losing population!
Between 1980 and 2005 the US population went from 200 million to 300 million. By comparison, MA should have grown to around 9 million by 2008. When I arrived in MA, we had 12 US Congressmen, in 2010 we’ll lose another to be at what, 9?
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p>Furthermore, I’d take a look at the composition of MA residents in 1990 and compare to 2010. I’ll wager the once bell-shaped socio-economic population distribution has given way to the 2-humped camel distribution, signifying the departure of middle-income folks to other states and to retirement elsewhere and an influx of lower-income immigrants with some additional high-wage “eds” and “meds” (and biotech) white-collars.
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p>I know these trends from the housing industry in which I toiled for 30 years. They reflect exactly what builders and developers have been noticing over the past decade. There’s no middle-income population growth.
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p>Massachusetts has become a place to go to college or graduate school, but then it’s off to NC, TX, CO, TN, AZ or other growing states with lower taxes.
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p>The same AVP banking job in Charlotte, NC or pharma job in Raleigh-Durham pays slightly less than Boston, but the cost of living is 40% or 50% lower. $400,000 buys a near-urban 4-bed house on a half acre. I have a real state developer friend who departed for SC … to teach! And is in a better place economically.
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p>$400,000 in Boston, Cambridge, or Brookline?
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p>Get the picture?