Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Election Day predictions

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My blind guesses:

Bos-May.

Menino   68%

Flaherty 31%

(Kudos to Flaherty for making a race of it, without being an obnoxious bomb-thrower)

NJ Gov

Christie 45

Corzine  43

Daggett  12

(Daggett is evaporating, and Christie’s getting his people.)

VA Gov

McDonnell 55

Deeds     45

(Would like to have that primary over again)

NY-23

Owens     48

Hoffman   46

Scozzafava 6

(A squeaker, and the only bright spot for the good guys tonight)

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  1. That would be good for Deval Patrick in terms of an example.  I supported Moran in the VA primary and still wish he had been nominated.

  3. Mayor of Boston:
    Menino 58
    Flaherty 42

    <

    p>Boston city council:
    Connolly
    Murphy
    Pressley
    Arroyo

    <

    p>Newton Mayor:
    Warren 51
    Balser 49

    <

    p>NJ-Gov:
    Corzine 46
    Christie 44
    Daggett 10

    <

    p>NY-23:
    Hoffman 49
    Owens 46
    Scozzafava 5

    <

    p>Ballot questions:
    ME: No (gay rights win)
    WA: Yes (gay rights win)
    Kalamazoo: No (gay rights lose)

    • Murphy over Connolly. The ballot position this time favors Murphy. In the preliminary, it favored Connolly, and the swing between the two amounted to about ten votes per precinct city-wide.

      <

      p>And as for Newton, I think you’re about right, but it could go the other way by the same margin.

      <

      p>And I’ll add two more:
      Brockton Mayor:
      Balzotti 58
      Harrington 42

      <

      p>Quincy Mayor:
      Koch 55
      Phelan 45

      • He raised a lot more money than Murphy and appears to have a much bigger sign presence every where I have been. I have gotten several fliers and calls for Connolly but nothing from Murphy. I think that Connolly will come in first with a good margin.

    • Mayor of Boston:
      Menino 59
      Flaherty 41

      <

      p>Boston city council:
      Connolly
      Murphy
      Pressley
      Arroyo

      <

      p>Newton Mayor:
      Balser 51
      Warren 49

      <

      p>NJ-Gov:
      Corzine 46
      Christie 44
      Daggett 10

      <

      p>NY-23:
      Hoffman 48
      Owens 47
      Scozzafava 5

      <

      p>Ballot questions:
      ME: Yes (gay rights lose)
      WA: No (gay rights lose)
      Kalamazoo: No (gay rights lose)

  4. Change things up on me, why don’t you…hm…City Council…hm…

    <

    p>Connolly
    Murphy (duh)
    Arroyo
    Pressley

    <

    p>I’d love to have Tito Jackson on Council, but I don’t know if his supporters will make it to the polls.

  5. Menino did last minute, negative drops in Southie, Charlestown, Dorchester and Brighton last night. No attribution to his campaign, but slamming Flaherty. Late night (8:30pm to my house)Robo calls from Ralph Martin declaring that Flaherty was going to do last minute negative attack ads (Funny, that is what he did with those drops) and don’t believe them, Menino is moving the city… zzz zzzz

    <

    p>Why did he do this? Because he can’t stop the slide. Good Luck MFF.

    <

    p>Flaherty 51
    Menino 49

    <

    p>Connolly
    Ayanna P
    Felix
    Murphy

    <

    p>Balser – 55
    Warren – 45

    <

    p>Corzine – 46
    Christie – 42
    Daggett – 12

    <

    p>McDonnell – 58
    Deeds – 42

    <

    p>

      • Alex,

        <

        p>Our campaign did nothing of the sort.

        <

        p>From the beginning, we have only distributed literature and materials that speak directly to the issues facing our city. We have not once criticized the Mayor personally. The only criticisms asserted by us have been of his failed policies and leadership decisions; as evidenced by our failing schools, increased dropout rates, and escalating youth violence.

        <

        p>I can assure you that we are not dropping literature that is, in any way, negative. Our neighborhood specific pieces are designed to inform voters of our plans to make Boston better.  Furthermore, our campaign always puts our name on anything and everything that we distribute.

        <

        p>Sincerely,

        <

        p>Natasha Perez
        Communications Director,
        Flaherty for Mayor Committee

        • I would likely support Flaherty for Mayor if I lived in Boston but, I live in Somerville (I’m also registered in Somerville and have been for the last ten years). Which makes me wonder why I received mail from the Flaherty campaign. It was adressed to me or current resident so it wasn’t like it was sent to my old address (from ten years ago when i was registered in Allston) and got forwarded. Just wondering why the waste of campaign funds.
          Good luck at the polls.

          <

          p>Oh, for a prediction: I predict that Joe Curtatone will take the Somerville Mayoral election in a landslide.
           

          • My wife and I have different last names so we generally get two copies of every Flahery mailing, and sometimes a third copy addressed to the previous owner. Over the course of the campaign we probably have gotten twenty mailings from Flaherty, far more than any other candidate. Of course, after the first couple fliers, you stop reading them, but it is quite impressive how much stuff they have sent out.

        • “Negative” just means that it is primarily attacking one’s opponent as opposed to promoting oneself. It does not necessarily imply a personal attack (whatever that means).

          <

          p>There is absolutely no doubt that Flaherty has spent a lot more time attacking Menino and saying negative things about him – fair or unfair – than Menino has done toward Flaherty. You don’t see Menino putting up giant posters with unflattering pictures of Flaherty all around town, but that is what Flaherty has done.

          <

          p>Not to say that Flaherty has not done plenty of positive promotion of his candidacy as well, of course.

          <

          p>I think it is perfectly reasonable for Flaherty to have attacked Menino, and it doesn’t bother me, but it is not really true to say that he has not gone negative.

        • Ms. Perez,

          <

          p>If you are choosing to define “negative” as a “personal attack”, then you certainly have not issued any negative lit.

          <

          p>However, the idea of positive and negative, IMO, exist outside of the spoken or written word itself.  The lit does feature quotes highlighting what you mentioned above, but they exist within the context of a black and gray colored page with an ominous looking photo of the mayor.  Draw that in contrast to the last few sections of the bi-fold, which feature bright colors and smiling faces; highlighting what a Flaherty administration can do.  The visuals are important in creating two different profiles in the readers mind, one negative and one positive.  While you may not be speaking personally about your opponent, the intent of the criticism is to cast their performance in their elected roles as negative.  Now if the criticism had come in context of the more positive aspects of the lit, that instead would have intended to leave the reader with only one positive profile of Councilman Flaherty.

          <

          p>I believe we have a difference in semantics.  

  6. Boston
    Menino   54%
    Flaherty 46%
    (Agreed on the kudos to Flaherty for making a race of it, without being an obnoxious bomb-thrower)

    <

    p>Plus Ayanna Pressley tops ticket among newcomers.

    <

    p>NJ Gov
    Corzine 51  
    Christie 43
    Daggett  8

    <

    p>VA Gov
    No idea

    <

    p>NY-23
    Owens     51
    Hoffman   46
    Scozzafava 3

    <

    p>

  7. Boton Mayor
    Menino   54%
    Flaherty 46%

    <

    p>New Jersey Governor
    Christie 48%
    Corzine  46%
    Daggett  6%

    <

    p>New York 3rd District
    Hoffman   53%
    Owens     44%
    Scozzafava 3%

    <

    p>Ballot questions:
    ME: Yes (gay rights loss, 51% to 49%)
    WA: Yes (gay rights win)

    <

    p>Just don’t ask me how I feel about these predictions.  I don’t feel great about these possible results, that’s for sure.

  8. Given my poor predictive abilities, I won’t even attempt to guess at numbers; I will offer a few observations and hopes, however:

    <

    p>Boston: who cares? You people! Here we have hot contests going on, with a chance to elect (or see defeated) some really good, progressive Mayoral candidates in Worcester, Springfield, Northampton, Pittsfield, and North Adams (and probably other cities that are outside my own parochial sphere), and all you want to discuss is Boston! Not even Balser?

    <

    p>I’m rooting for O’Brien in Worcester, Sarno in Springfield, Bianchi in Pittsfield, and Alcombright in North Adams. (With apologies to all my good friends in Northampton; I just haven’t been following the race there!)

    <

    p>So, here’s hoping that all of my picks win; I think they all have an excellent chance, but I think there is a chance in at least some of these races for a disappointment.

    <

    p>And, I didn’t even mention some really interesting City Council races in Pittsfield, and especially Springfield, which is switching from an all at-large Council to Ward Representation. The Council is going to look VERY different (and, thankfully, much more like the demographics of the city!).

    <

    p>NJ: Corzine will pull it off, imho, and Christopher’s words. Daggett was never a serious contender, and people supported him as a protest against Corzine, to be sure; but when this blue state looks down the gun barrel at the prospect of a GOP Guv, I think they’ll pull the lever for the Dem. If you look at the last poll recorded on RealClearPolitics, for example, you can see that as Daggett’s numbers have fallen, Corzine’s have improved. Either way won’t be a surprise, but I’d bet on Corzine at this point.

    <

    p>VA: The surprise of the day would be a Deeds win. Ain’t gonna happen, I would say. However, this is not one the wingnuts can take credit for, since McDonnell as much as told Palin and her buds to stay away. It’s more about local issues, the candidates themselves, and how the campaign was conducted. No national lesson to be learned here, I think, though obviously the GOP will brag about it.

    <

    p>NY 23: I live on the NY border, in the Albany media market, so hear more about this race than any other. It has been truly bizarre. If Owens could win, that would be SO great — it would stop the Palin/Pawlenty train in its tracks! I’m not optimistic, though. All the polls I’ve heard about or seen suggest that the District will remain with the GOP (as it has for 100+ years). So, I’m predicting a Hoffman win, and hoping I’m wrong!

    • They may stay conservative, but thanks to the Club for (Democratic) Growth & Co., the GOP has officially lost that district — and I wouldn’t mind seeing Scozzafava win it back as a Democrat in November ’10.  All the better for us.  It’ll be interesting to see where the Daggett vote goes, but the guy is a former Republican, in many ways a Hoffman that never caught on.

      <

      p>Nationwide I think the Republicans will have a lot to crow about tonight, and will be nigh intolerable tomorrow morning…until the Hoffman Trust starts looking for other places to torpedo the Republicans.

      • I’m afraid I have to agree with your last comment. There will be a lot of crowing and credit taken where none is due. Ah well, we had our fun last year!

        <

        p>As to NY 23, so far as I know, Hoffman is a Republican. NY is a funny state — you don’t have to be a member of a party to run on their line. In fact, many candidates run on more than one party line. In any case, the fact that he was endorsed by the likes of Palin, Pawlenty, Gingrich, and Co. sorta makes him GOP by default, despite what you or I might think about their place in the Repuglican Party. You think he’s gonna caucus with the Dems?

        <

        p>You say Daggett is “a Hoffman that never caught on.” Again, sorry, but I have to agree with you. Don’t forget, however, that NJ and NY 23 are VERY different places. A GOP win in NJ would be HUGE compared with them simply hanging on to a seat they’ve held in an obscure far-north District for decades. In fact, an Owens win would, I think, be as significant for the Dems nationally as would a win in NJ for the GOP. And, probably a huge blow to Palin & Co. as well.

    • Sad to say, I think Marjorie Decker is going down.  Simmons, Davis, and Maher all seem like safe bets for reelection.  Reeves, too.

      <

      p>My neighborhood is full of Sullivan signs, FWIW.  I predict he and Cheung will be additions.

      <

      p>http://www.rwinters.com/vote/

      • Ran into her this morning, have seen signs all over the city for her for weeks now- a campaign run like you didn’t even have to write it in!

        <

        p>Sullivan is all over my neighborhood (my downstairs neighbor has a sign in our yard). I agree about Davis and Simmons…what about MINKA! ?  

        •  Her “Minka is a FRESH voice.  Minka is a MOM.” tagline just doesn’t resonate with me.

          <

          p>FWIW, Marjorie’s sign campaign seems to have missed my corner of the city entirely.  

        • This evening saw a sharp uptick in both voters and sign carriers in my neighborhood.  I just rode past three voting sites on my way home.  All three had folks carrying large Decker signs.  Also small gangs of Toomey and Sullivan supporters, plus some Simmons, Davis, and Mahrer folks.  

          <

          p>There was one lone M!NKA sign carrier up on Cambridge street.

        • I’m very happy to have been wrong on this one.  My partner and I both wrote her in, but still didn’t expect her to win.  Excellent news.

          <

          p>Here are the full results:  http://www.wickedlocal.com/cam…

          <

          p>I was right about Simmons, Davis, Maher, Sullivan and Cheung.  

          <

          p>I’m somewhat surprised Grassi lost for school committee. He’d held a post there for 16 years.

    • so I care, and a lot of others at least work in the City, but you are right that if you only want to talk about races where a progressive is going against a non-progressive then Boston would not be very interesting.

      • Of course, Boston is the Hub, we all know that! I even lived in Boston for a number of years, visit there often, and love the city.

        <

        p>I just tire of the Boston-centric nature of our polical discourse, as though no one outside of I-495 matters.

        <

        p>btw, I forgot to mention that I’m a big fan of Mayor Mike Bissonnette in Chicopee, and I hope he gets re-elected. Agawam is a mess. There are also contests in Easthampton and Holyoke.

        <

        p>And plenty of progressives running for City Council in all of these places that I’ve mentioned here and in my previous comments.

        <

        p>I’ve got my fingers crossed that the Obamamentum is with us!

  9. I predict the following:

    <

    p>– In a stunning, not to mention inexplicable, turn of events Hamid Karzai is declared the winner in both the New Jersey and Virginia Governors races. He refuses all talk of a run-off and surprisingly, his bags and family already packed, shows up at the governors mansion in NJ at 7am, Tuesday, Afghanistan time.  Welcome to New Virginia-stan.

    <

    p>– Mayor Menino will be re-elected and Michael Flaherty will sue to prevent the release of the final tally in an attempt to preserve a slim margin of future viability.  One month from the date of the election, Menino will be hospitalized when it is (finally) realized that he does not know how to turn his campaign auto-pilot off.

    <

    p>– Hoffman will win the NY-23 race but will promptly and publicly resign minutes after giving that last few “neener-neener neener”s of his acceptance speech. His stated reasons for resigning are slavish devotion to Sarah Palin and boredom. We’ll learn all of this, of course, via his Facebook page.

    • Meninio staff has already e-mailed the final results. In a nod to the new millennium, you’ll be able to find out how you voted online starting at midnight tonight. 😉

  10. Mayor of Boston:
    Menino 61
    Flaherty 39

    <

    p>Boston city council:
    Connolly
    Pressley
    Murphy
    Arroyo

    <

    p>Newton Mayor:
    Warren 53
    Balser 47

    <

    p>NJ-Gov:
    Corzine 46
    Christie 48
    Daggett 6

    <

    p>NY-23:
    Hoffman 47
    Owens 51
    Scozzafava 2

    <

    p>Ballot questions:
    ME: Yes
    WA: Yes
    Kalamazoo: No  

  11. MAYOR
    Menino   53%
    Flaherty 46%

    <

    p>NJ GOV
    Christie 44
    Corzine  44.5
    Daggett  9.5

    <

    p>VA GOV
    McDonnell 56
    Deeds     43

    <

    p>NY 23
    Owens     49
    Hoffman   45
    Scozzafava 5

    BROCKTON MAYOR
    Balzotti 54
    Harrington 45

    <

    p>QUINCY MAYOR
    Koch 52
    Phelan 47

  12. Boston Mayoral
    -Menino 59%
    -Flaherty 41%

    <

    p>Boston City Council
    -Connolly
    -Pressley
    -Murphy
    -Arroyo

    <

    p>Newton Mayoral
    -Balsar 53%
    -Warren 47%

    <

    p>NJ-GOV
    -Corzine 45%
    -Christie 43%
    -Dagget 12%

    <

    p>NY-23
    -Owens 50%
    -Hoffman 45%
    -Scozzafava 5%

    <

    p>Ballot Questions
    -ME: Yes
    -WA: Yes
    -MI: No

  13. New Jersey:

    <

    p>Corzine: 50.5
    Christie 47.5
    Daggett   2.0

    <

    p>I don’t expect the Florio expect to affect Corzine.

    <

    p>Easthampton:

    <

    p>Mike Tautznik 60
    JP Kwicienski 30
    Marge Pendergast 7
    The 4th guy     3

    <

    p>Northampton:

    <

    p>Bardsley 54
    Higgins  46

    <

    p>Agawam:

    <

    p>Cohen: 75
    The other guy 25

    <

    p>Being arrested in a fight at a strip club..no thanks

    <

    p>Maine: No on 1 wins. I vacation in the unpopulated parts of Maine, not near any cities, and the folks I’ve met during the last 10 years there are decent people who I trust to do the right thing.

    <

    p>  

  14. Bos-May.
    Menino   55%
    Floon 45%

    <

    p>NJ Gov
    Corzine  45
    Christie 43
    Daggett  12

    <

    p>VA Gov
    McDonnell 57
    Deeds     43

    <

    p>NY-23
    Hoffman   49
    Owens     45
    Scozzafava 6

    <

    p>If I had to big one race I feel most confident in, it’s NJ. That state always flirts Republican, lands Democrat. This race will be no different. Christie is a crook and too many people found out about it.

    • I picked owens to win in my post, I’m just projecting my hopes.  I actually should’ve gone with my better judgement, as you did, and picked Hoffman.  Hell, it’s a win/win either way for me.

      • Though, honestly, Owens would have always been a thorn in the caucus if he had won. On the other hand, Hoffman is going to be another crazy Republican in the caucus who’s toxic to the vast majority of America; his winning, over the long run, may actually be helpful.

        <

        p>The more loons like Bachman and that crazy lady from SC who thinks Matthew Shephard’s murder wasn’t a hate crime and that health insurance reform is worse than all the terrorists… the better for the Democratic Party. People like Hoffman (and the nuts who propelled his unlikely election) ensure that young people, women and minorities pull the lever for Democrats across the country, which will bring large Democratic majorities for generations to come.

        <

        p>Better yet, the people who put Hoffman in power — or will, in just a few hours — are going to feel spurned on and start challenging quasi-moderate Republicans across the country (or at least those who are mildly polite with Democrats), which will also ensure large Democratic majorities for generations to come.

  15. than Deeds?

    <

    p>I’m almost routing for the route to be as big as possible. Blue Dogs need to learn at some point that you can’t out-republican Republicans.

    <

    p>One last point of commentary: These off-year elections are absolutely meaningless in the greater picture. They say nothing about a changing landscape. NY-23 should never have been so close for dems and Deeds, being one of the worst candidates ever, could not have possibly won that race. If the MSM keeps with the meme that these elections mean anything, either way, beyond the actual offices… they need to be called on it early and often.  

    • I was working for a campaign in VA while the Dem primary was going on and the Deeds situation was insane.  His momentum to the top was seemingly based on no one being solidly in any camp and then jumping on the Deeds bandwagon after the Post endorsement.  I’m still not sure we’ve seen anything like it before.  He clearly wasn’t prepared to run a campaign against an excellent candidate like Bob McDonnell.  However, I’m not quite sure McAuliffe or Moran could have beaten him either.  McDonnell ran a great campaign.

      • He is a solid, articulate progressive, brother of Congressman Jim Moran, and is actually from Concord, MA.  I agree with your assessment of the Post endorsement and just wish it had worked the same magic when it endorsed in the general.  It’s possible Moran could have beaten McDonnell.  When we were trying to get votes for him one of our selling points was that polls at the time were showing him as the only Democrat beating McDonnell in head-to-head matchups.  McAuliffe’s energy and financial resources probably would have at least made that race closer too.

  16. New York 23rd CD Election ResultsNovember 3, 2009 at 9:38 pm by Irene Jay Liu
    New York 23rd Congressional District

    <

    p>Bill Owens (D, WFP): –  22,845, 49%
    Dede Scozzafava (R, I): –  2575, 6%
    Doug Hoffman (C): –  21,246, 46%

    <

    p>If this holds up, this could be HUGE!

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