Cross-posted from Blue News Tribune.
Markos quoted in Washington Monthly:
Two in five Democratic voters either consider themselves unlikely to vote at this point in time, or have already made the firm decision to remove themselves from the 2010 electorate pool. Indeed, Democrats were three times more likely to say that they will “definitely not vote” in 2010 than are Republicans.
This enormous enthusiasm gap … seems to make passing legitimate health care reform an absolute political necessity for Democrats. This polling data certainly should be something for Congressional leadership to consider, as they move along the legislative path.
I don’t like this approach. I’m all for threatening certain things, like withholding donations. But to suggest that healthcare is the only way to salvage the 2010 elections is asking too much.
I prefer Dean Barker’s take at Blue Hampshire.
And if you think about it, the first year of healthcare reform, whatever form it takes (retakes?), will be MORE expensive, MORE bureaucratic, and MORE chaotic. Service may even suffer.
I think this has been the unspoken reality of the foot-dragging: The Democratic caucus doesn’t want to own this outright until the benefits really kick in — probably three to five years from now.
In short, they know — in that conventional wisdom, the grass is never greener sort of way — that the best way to salvage the 2010 elections is to make this go away with the least amount of harm.
It would be nice if they thought about us and not their political future. It would be nice if they damned the torpedoes.
Most likely, the final bill will be tepid, and they’ll claim it’s courageous. But much better, they’ll say, than what the Republicans would do!
I guess I’ve fallen into the enthusiasm gap. But I’ll vote.
I believe it was a contributing factor in our losing the VA gubernatorial race. Democrats also elected Newt Gingrich Speaker in 1994 by staying home. The President and our party leadership have been way to tepid about doing what they were elected to do. Why is it the GOP never seems to have this problem?
And New Jersey, too.
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p>The leadership of the national leadership of Democratic Party always acts as if its base could be counted on no matter what. It’s the independents that must be wooed.
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p>What baffles me now is what story conservative Democrats think they are going to tell as part of their re-election effort.
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p>We did nothing with utmost competence?
I don’t want to see equivalent rhetoric of the Tea Party crowd, though a prophetic voice about the immorality of people going bankrupt over medical bills, for example would be nice. I do want Democrats to act as though elections matter and show there really is a dime’s worth of difference between the two parties. Polls consistently show that on most issues on the merits people are more likely to agree with us, so I don’t buy the assumption that we are a center-right country. I also think leadership and the bully pulpit can be put to better effect to persuade voters.
Democrats just don’t play politics as well as Republicans.
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p>Two items regarding the stimulus bill.* First, why wasn’t it called a Jobs Bill? And why aren’t Democrats making the case for it rather than joining the Great Fret about deficits?
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p>Second, Democrats are guaranteed to lose at the polls if unemployment, something people experience, remains high. They won’t do badly at all if the deficit is high. After all, Reagan and G.W. Bush presided over expansions of the deficit and that certainly didn’t harm them very much at the polls. (Polling also shows that concerns about the deficit are not broadly shared.)
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p>So why then did we not get a bigger more effective stimulus, one better fought for and with fewer concessions to the economic branch of the Flat Earth Society?
* I suspect I am repeating points Krugman has made.
will be called a jobs bill. with any luck, it won’t include useless (stimulus-wise) tax cuts either.
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p>and that’s another bill that we’ll have a hard time winning the next election without. We need lots of jobs fast.
The Research 2000 poll commissioned by Daily Kos would seem to show that Democrats are mildly unpopular and Republicans wildly unpopular:
FavorableUnfavorable
Pelosi41%51%
Boehner13%66%
Reid31%59%
McConnell15%68%
Congressional Democrats41%54%
Congressional Republicans14%70%
(Crosstabs are here: Notice how Democratic the Northeast has become.)
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p>The above would be good news, except the poll also shows an unwillingness of Democrats to show up to vote:
Certain orlikely to voteUnlikely orcertain not to vote
Republican Voters81%14%
Independent Voters65%23%
Democratic Voters56%40%
Public Policy Polling conducted a a telephone poll which shows that it would be better for Democrats to win on Healthcare Reform than lose. They first asked participants who they’d vote for for Congress without a prompt regarding Healthcare reform. They then said suppose it doesn’t pass, who’d you vote for then? Finally, they said suppose it does pass. You will note that it would be much better for Democrats to have it pass than fail.
No HCR promptHCR not passedHCR passed
Democrat46%40%46%
Republican38%40%41%
Undecided16%20%14%
Joe Scarborough said a few months ago that it doesn’t matter how unpopular the GOP gets. What matters is how unpopular the people in charge (us) get. He meant, I think, that there is only one alternative, so once one side can’t win, the other side can.
If either you or I were in charge, you can be sure that there would be robust banking reform, a robust public option, a stimulus fully adequate to the unemployment rate, and a better, clearer policy on Afghanistan.
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p>When you say “the people in charge”, I’m not sure you can say “us” — and this is always important to recognize whenever Democrats are elected.
So the best news is we aren’t hated nearly as much as the GOP – what a winning strategy!
When Obama signs up another 30,000 or 35,000 soldiers to go to Afghanistan, his base will erode even more and independents will lean even more to the right. Of course, then there will be the increase in troop casualties throughout 2010 which will not be pretty. Unemployment will not be dropping for a long time and jobs is the numero uno issue with the electorate. State budgets will be slashed all over the country next year and any new stimulus bill to pay for state workers will be rejected.
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p>The stars are not lining up well for Obama or the Dems in power. Republican candidates will be coming out of the woodwork and donations will be huge.
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p>And Ben NElson will support a filibuster on any HC bill which includes the things the far left insists on. Should be an interesting debate.
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p>PS The Stimulus bill has been a joke and has created far fewer jobs than reported. It should be renamed, but not a jobs bill but a Flush bill for all the money that has gone down the drain.
Does the right support withdrawal from Afghanistan?
It’s still sad to see the Republicans twist themselves into knots in order to pin their mistakes on Obama. By the time they finish, the Iraq War and the Recession will be the result of failed liberal policies.
It’ll rank right up there with the “Roosevelt Depression”.
Republicans will for sure blame Obama just as Democrats have blamed George Bush for “everything” that happened during his 8 years (and beyond). Even the upcoming Senatorial loser Capuano is mentioning Dick Cheney’s name in his ad continuing the blame game. People should stop concentrating any energy on Bush/Cheney as it really is getting so “last year”. Olberman can stop with the “xxx days since George Bush declared victory…” and Maddow can stop looking for blood from former Republican bogey-men.
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p>We are seeing now how Obama has an agenda and it is very probable that the Democratically controlled Congress is not following Obama’s agenda. But we (Republicans and many independent voters) will be punishing Obama for Congress’s actions. Isn’t this the Washington way? We all know George Bush and the Republicans did not control the house or the Senate from January 2007 thru Jan 2009 but he singularly will bear the blame for everything done during that time period.
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p>Obama should get used to being guilty of failures in Afghanistan, the continuing unemployment rate, the upcoming rise in housing foreclosures, the upcoming commercial real estate collapse, inflation/deflation and the ever blossoming federal deficit. Who “really” is at fault does not matter.
Sorry, John, but I can’t help but compare the approach Americans — of all stripes — took during the Nuremburg trials to the self-serving caterwauling you offer in defense of Mr. Cheney, Mr. Bush, and the rest of the currently un-prosecuted war criminals.
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p>I hear your fervent desire to turn the page and insist that “who is ‘really’ at fault does not matter” — just as I heard similarly fervent pleas after Richard Nixon’s crimes and Ronald Reagan’s illegal operations exposed in ContraGate. G. Gordon Liddy and Oliver North played for your team, not mine, as did Richard Cheney, Alberto Gonzalez, John Ashcroft, Ronald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, and a host of others.
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p>You, and the remaining handful of Republicans, should get used to being blamed for the collapse of the financial system, whether or not President Obama is able to pick up the pieces during the first session of Congress after taking office — particularly given the relentless, unified, and open Republican opposition to everything President Obama attempts. You should get used to it because it was — in fact — your fault. Rightwing Republicans held power and dominated US policy for nearly three decades, starting with Ronald Reagan and culminating in the eight-year debacle of the Bush/Cheney administration. Your team had the ball, and all of us now have to live through the results of what you did with it — no matter how loudly kooks like Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, Glenn Beck, and Lou Dobbs shout to the contrary.
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p>You and your ilk have squandered generations of US progress, while bleating about “taking responsibility” along the way — and now you whine about “blame”. It’s time to grow up, take your licks, and either start helping or get out of the way.
But I also think it is like a team playing a game. Coach speaking… “George screwed up (fumbled, struck out…) but we still have to win the game.” Now the coach doesn’t begin every play with that caveat “Georged F’d up…”, he just tells everyone to do their jobs and win the game. If we want to watch the films of George fumbling the ball to learn then great but I think we move beyond the screwup if winning is truly the end goal. If the goal is continued beating of Republicans then go ahead and blow some more hot air. I think Barney Frank has lots of DNA on his hands about the whole Freddie/Fannie and bank deregulation but I am much more concerned that he and his committee fix the problems we have right now.
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p>Me and my “remaining handful of Republicans” seem to be doing a pretty darn good job of being the minority party. If we are so insignificant then you should be totally unconcerned about the 2010/2012 elections and I sincerely hope you maintain that overconfident feeling for a few more years.
blamed Bush for “everything” that went on under his watch.
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p>You just haven’t come to terms yet with what a bad president he was — and on so many levels. There is a long list of things for which Bush deserves ample blame as I have produced in the past.
Set partisan defensiveness aside, and maybe, just maybe, one may be able to let it register: Democratic officials have laid a lot of blame at the former President’s feet —
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p>and, yes, ole GWB has earned it, and is richly deserving of it – but nearly everything he did, he did with Democratic Party complicity. He WAS a bad President…..
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p>Yet the Democratic Party permitted most, if not nearly all, of his bad policies at a time when it had ample power to stop him. In fact, a great many Democrats cheered him on.
Do tell.
Iraq?
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p>Afghanistan?
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p>$100 billion of unconditional supplementary government spending?
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p>Patriot Act?
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p>The so-called Healthy Forests Restoration Act?
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p>The Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003?
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p>DR-CAFTA?
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p>The so-called Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act?
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p>Laci and Conner’s Law?
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p>Shall I go on?
We are not obligated to defend the actions of centrist Democrats for perpetuity. Do you think any Democrat here agrees with those actions? What would the relevance be if they did?
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p>This is borderline hijacking, trying to reopen debate on the settled question of the Bush presidency.
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Then hijacking shall have to be redefined.
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p>What I noted, and all that I noted, was that JohnD raised a valid point. The question of the Bush presidency may be “settled” – but the question of Democratic Party complicity with that deplorable track record —
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p>Now, that is where the “enthusiasm gap” has roots.
No “noting” involved.
Yes, JohnD has a point. You are taking it in a ridiculous direction.
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p>If I was a traitor in 2002, I can’t be called complicit now. Pick your slander and stick to it, please.
be very very careful agreeing with anything I say. Nothing will get you dope-slapped faster than this blasphemy…
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p>For penance you must watch Fahrenheit 9/11, Sicko and Capitalism: A Love Story while dressed in a Moveon.org t-shirt and donate $500 to Nancy Pelosi’s reelection war chest.
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p>Barring the $500, I’ve done that. Unfortunately, MoveOn will never break free from its shackles of being a Democratic Party sycophant, and Mr. Moore – while I love him – is sadly fairly firmly situated on what may safely be regarded as the “right wing” of my party, that element of the Greens who somehow hold out the hope their activism can push the Democratic Party to the left.
Otherwise, you’re just making blanket unsupported statements. Also ignoring how much Bush & co. demonized the opposition.
The Democrats were absolutely guilty even if only of “looking the other way”. Many will look back at 2009 and also be blaming Democrats for things which were done and things which weren’t.
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p>I have never said GWB did not make mistakes and that includes some large ones. But I don’t think criticizing the Obama administration for the out of control deicit or whatever… should be met with “but George Bush did that in 200x…”. Let’s fix things, that’s all just fix things.
Source
moved left to vote for Obama and the changes he would bring. With Obama essentially following George Bush’s military plans for Afghanistan I think those same independents will move right (back to the center or beyond). I guess we’ll see if this is true in the next elections.
Which, it must be said, favors Republicans, because the GOP base is more reliable than the Democratic base.
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p>2. Lifelong Republicans, so repulsed by the toxicity of their political party, are re-aligning as independents in party registration and self-identification to pollsters.
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p>These two things happen at once make it rather tricky to say with confidence what “independents” are doing, or even who they are.
Teabaggery will not have wide appeal among the GOP diaspora.
There’s some polling out showing that independents have drifted a bit to the right.
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p>And the Afghanistan war has become unpopular. I doubt you could say it’s part of that drift, though. McCain types are still talking about the unacceptability of “defeat”.
like six months ago. A different way of saying this is that the Lieberman approach is toxic to Democratic political success — never mind policy success.
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p>P.S. It’s trollish to argue by labeling things jokes, and, in fact, there are plenty of economists out there who don’t agree with your, um, “assessment” of the stimulus bill.
vis-a-vis the Afghanistan speech. I’m sure a number of you received this email today.
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than to be the person in power? Gov Patrick denounced Romney’s 9C cuts before he took office but Deval has gone on to make far more 9C cuts than Romeny ever did. Obama decried many things during the election such as the Patriot Act, poor support for the Afghanistan war, DOMA, actually supports expanding FISA, Wall St bonuses are bigger and better than ever… so I’m not surprised nor should voters be.
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p>I’m still waiting for this promise to materialize…
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p>I think there is even the possibility that we won’t get healthcare reformed at all.
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p>And… I wonder if Keith Olberman will change his signature closing remark concerning GWB’s quote with a reference to this Obama promise…
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p>Tick, tick, tick…
You and the rest of the Republican rightwing have done nothing but lie, distort, and obstruct every effort to achieve health care reform and every effort to accommodate your “concerns.”
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p>Take your “we” and stuff it back into your teabag.
We is we… me and you. Most things the governemnt does efects all of us (except tax increases for rich people… although that effects the non-contributors since they GET the money from the rich people).
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p>Try to loosen up and get on with it. You and your team aren’t getting what you want and you’re ready to cry and go home. Our plan is working perfectly and pretty soon you’ll be voted out and we can restore fiscal sanity to our country. Tonight will probably put a lock on many races in 2010 and will be a blow to healthcare as well. When people get pissy about someone they usually will get pissy about everything that person supports.
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p>”We” haven’t lied about anything, distorted anything or obstructed anything that shouldn’t be stopped. Of course there will be fringe people (Nazi images of GWB…) who do all that but not the majority of us (the “few remaining Republicans”).
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p>BTW… wtf are you smoking to really believe your side has made… every effort to accommodate your “concerns.”
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p>How’s the tort reform going with healthcare? How is the ability for the evil insurance companies to cross state lines going?
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p>I’ll steal two lines from prominent Democrats and apply to healthcare reform…
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p>and from Colin Powell…
“wtf are you smoking”
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p>Classy.
if we don’t pass fundamental, comprehensive health care, we lose. It’s one of the two or three things people voted us in for.
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p>If we pass health care reform that mandates insurance without a public option, that’s wildly unpopular. If we pass one without a public option, it’s wildly popular.
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p>We need to pass health care reform. We need to take the three year approach and throw it out the window, getting as many benefits as possible out as quick as possible. We need to make sure it’s subsizing enough funds, and we need to get as many people in the exchange as possible, because people can’t afford health care who don’t have it unless the government steps up — and we may not be able to step up as a government without increasing access to the exchange, which will save literally a hundred billion dollars.
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p>If we fail to achieve our objectives, we shouldn’t be surprised that we’d get nailed at the ballot box. Kos’s speaking an uncomfortable truth, but he’s right.
a mandate with an option is wildly popular.
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p>whoops.