I was down in NOVA volunteering on the campaign and it was one of the most negative I have seen. For the first time that I can remember I saw a negative ad from the Democratic candidate first. (In addition to issue agreement, part of why I’m a Democrat is I don’t like the GOP’s attitude which seems to be to go negative early and often.)
Creigh Deeds is not very articulate, though I’ve heard he does have a stuttering issue not completely in his control, and couldn’t seem to present a coherent agenda, especially on transportation and how to pay for that. McDonnell focused on job creation and the usual GOP talking points about low taxes and minimal regulation. He did not campaign on cultural issues, but his legislative record is one that reflects his association (both alum and board member) with Pat Robertson’s Regent’s University. Several years back he wrote a thesis about the family which slammed the notion that women should be in the workforce and that was fodder for the Deeds campaign, though even some Democrats thought Deeds had overplayed that hand.
As a volunteer with several campaigns worth of experience and a masters degree in Political Management to my name, I also saw many internal inefficiencies in the co-ordinated campaign, some of which could be ameliorated if more money were available, but much seemed simply a matter of lacking common sense. As I mentioned in another comment, the Governors races don’t say much about Obama; Congressional races I think generally say more about POTUS since they are part of the same system, whereas state races have their own issues.
Pity it didn’t work out.
Both of your analysis of the deficiencies in the VA Democratic effort and also why its completely irrelevant to President Obama. A significant number of Obama voters crossed that still support the President crossed over to support McDonnell, according to most exit polling I’ve seen. In my view Deeds benefited from the collapse of the Moran operation and the Anybody-but-Terry vote and never really reunited the party. Also his record as a centrist was similar to McDonnell’s and when the candidates take similar positions on the issues voters would seem more likely to go with the more positive, upbeat, articulate candidate and it seems that McDonell was by a mile.
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p>Also I agree with your analysis that congressional elections matter more, which is why the most Republican district in the Northeast voting for a Democrat is incredibly important. In my view the Mainstream Media really failed in its analysis by focusing on gubernatorial races where unpopular Democratic candidates lead to those losses as a referendum on Obama, while the real story is that a PVI R+8 district rejected a candidate from the Palinite-wing of the party. THAT is the real story, how the Republicans have ceded an entire region to Democratic dominance by shutting moderates out of their party. The dominance of the Religious Right in the GOP will be just as detrimental to that party as the dominance of the New Left in the 70s and 80s was to our party. The GOP will be shut out for at least two cycles-and thats the story.
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p>Lastly the thesis attacks on McDonnell were unfair in my view. My thesis is focusing on the relevance of Burkean conservativism to modern political thought and will shed little light on my personal political views, I just like reading Burke and could write about him forever. Similarly I recall Jim Webb having a sexist Naval Academy thesis and that does not disbar him from public service IMO. McDonnell is a Catholic so he and Pat Robertson would actually have a lot to disagree on, what is more troubling is not that he attended Robertson’s university but that the states top lawyer came out of a law school that only received its ABA accreditation in the 2000s. Even if he is privately sexist it would be political suicide for him to advance his agenda considering he also won the woman’s vote handidly.
some of the issues you saw in the coordinated campaign?
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p>Which ones were money issues and which ones were common sense?
Money could have paid for a bit more technology and a few more people, but like I say that was the lesser factor. Common sense includes recording and entering data correctly, staying in communication with local party organizations, doing a better job recruiting, motivating, and training volunteers, and getting administrative work done in a timely fashion.
The NY-23 (where the republican party in northern NY state has obvious and serious internal problems—or they are very corrupt —or both) are now the laughingstock of the nation. The democrat candidate didn’t win. The republicans committed suicide and the ballot was screwed up. If the 5% who voted for the nonexistent republican candidate had voted for another candidate the election would likey have different results—but who knows.
At least for the 70% who told polsters that he wasn’t a factor. The remaining 30% split just about in half between voting for Deeds to support Obama and voting for McDonnell to oppose him. Obama’s own approval rating in VA is pretty close to the percentage of vote he got in that state one year ago.
The Republicans committed suicide by shooting their best and most viable candidate in the foot and running an out of state ideologue in a district composed mostly of moderate military families. He also failed to name the district’s largest employer and failed to grasp its local nuances. Also I am sure the republican candidate’s endorsement of the Democrat did little to sway Republican voters to choose him over a third party extremist.
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p>McDonnell and Christie won because they ran as moderates, pragmatists, and adopted Obama style campaign themes, and in Christie’s case even argued that Obama would support him if he could. They both ran away from Bush-ran towards Obama, and ran against really inept candidates-this is why they won. The teabaggers destroyed a candidate who could have won in the NY-23 with a similar strategy. Also Congressional races are more indicative of the national mood than Gubernatorial ones.
I for one will vote against Deval next fall, not because I hate the President, in fact I am still a strong supporter, but because I am tired of Deval’s inept leadership.
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p>If the GOP wants to return to power it ought to follow the McDonnell/Christie roadmap and ignore the Hoffman one. The Hoffman model is a road to defeat relegating the GOP to a small and vocal minority party that agitates loudly but can’t affect change. The other model is one where Republicans by de-emphasizing social issues, focusing on bread and butter/law and order themes on the economy and government, and adopting Democratic talking points about hope, change, and reform can actually win elections. Following Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck will not.