Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Senate ad watch: Pags goes negative(ish)

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As predicted in today’s Globe, Steve Pagliuca released an ad today that is probably the most aggressive of the campaign thus far.  It’s on health care, calling out Capuano and Coakley by name over their stated intention not to support a bill that includes Stupitts on final passage.  And it has the telltale “ominous voice” reading it, instead of Pags himself, whose voice appears only at the end when he “approves this message.”  And in other advertising news, Alan Khazei explained his ad with the kids by saying “I don’t want to run political ads during the holidays … I don’t think people care about that. Let’s do something different.”  Interesting — maybe there will be a new one after Thanksgiving weekend?  We shall see, I guess!

Here’s Pags’ new ad.

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  1. but I really don’t think it will work in this sort of election when the turnout will be low and almost entirely very active liberals.  

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    p>In the “who are you endorsing?” sort-of poll in a recent post, Pagliuca still has zero (of 53) votes.  If he doesn’t have at least a few supporters amongst the BMG regular readers, he’s not going to have a good day on the 8th.  

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    p>If he was really a threat in this race, one of the other candidates could easily create an ad highlighting Pags’s ties to Romney and his absolutely indefensible donation to Bush in 2000.  Not to mention an ad casting him as anti-choice.

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    p>I am sure he will try to attack on this issue again in the remaining debates/forums, but as the Greater Boston debate showed, neither Capuano nor Coakley will let it slide.  

    • Doug Rubin and the other paid Pag staff who have posted here to assure us that the Bain Co.-Pro-Romney-anti-Kennedy-investment guy is indeed just your average progressive Democrat.

      • to this

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        Pagliuca said recently that the Kennedy ads showing the bitterness of laid-off workers were unfair because they distorted the entirety of Romney’s body of work. An examination of Bain’s record, and Pagliuca has been a key member of Bain since its early days, shows that Bain made big profits out of six formerly healthy companies it helped drive into bankruptcy (Stage Stores, Ampad, GS Technologies, Details, KB Toys, and Dade). During the credit boom from 2005 to 2007, Bain bought 22 businesses. Moody’s Credit Rating Service in November said 10 of those companies, including Clear Channel Communications and Guitar Center, are either distressed or in default, 45 percent of the total.

    • I hadn’t heard anything either way.  Unless you just mean that he is de facto less pro-choice because he is unwilling to reject a health-care bill that contains Stupak-Pitts?

      • By saying that he’ll vote for a health care bill that includes an anti-abortion amendment, he strengthens the hand of the anti-abortion forces.

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        p>That’s why Martha Coakley and Mike Capuano ended up on the same page.

        • Despite supporting Capuano I actually take the Pagliuca/Khazei position on this.  While other Senators can get away with taking a wait-and-see attitude, MA is the only state that is simultaneously electing a Senator during this process.  As such candidates here don’t have the luxury of holding their cards close that their would-be colleagues have.  I find what they are saying more honest than the potential alternative, which is to say no-way, no-how, no-Stupak only to have it in the conference report and then having to choose between breaking their promise or scuttling reform.

          • I don’t think it’s a “luxury” to make a hedged answer to a hypothetical question today and “refine” that answer when the final bill comes down. The analogy of the new-car price negotiation is apt here — no would-be purchaser who states, at the beginning of the negotiation, that they’ll pay list price is ever going to get anything lower.

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            p>I think it’s clear that both Mike Capuano and Martha Coakley are solidly pro-choice and solidly pro health-care reform — the rest of their exchanges were, after all, essentially “just politics.”

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            p>I see no similar evidence to persuade us that Steve Pagliuca is either pro-choice or pro-health care reform. He did, after all, give to the Mitt Romney campaign. Mitt Romney was also “pro choice” — when it suited his short-term political agenda. We all know how that turned out.

            • …was that both Coakley and Capuano ultimately said that they would vote against any final conference report that contained the Stupak language.  I would never say it because I don’t mean it and if you develop an early reputation for not following through and your threats you won’t be very effective either.  Being evasive would mean saying that they would wait and see which I thought is what Capuano said originally, but then bactracked.  I’m happy to be corrected if I’ve mischaracterized anything a candidate said.

              • I don’t mean to be snarky, I mean that the effect of your approach — as Steve Pagliuca is demonstrating — is to play into the hand of your opponents.

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                p>We saw AQ playing the US right-wing in a similar way after 911. They correctly concluded that the prior administration would react by curtailing human rights, constitutional protections, and America’s long-standing commitment to due process. They adroitly manipulated the administration and its right-wing supporters to accomplish their ends — with enormously effective success.

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                p>It’s political jujitsu — using an opponent’s momentum against them — and it is devastatingly effective unless the opponent is well-versed in handling it.

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                p>Both Martha Coakley and Mike Capuano ended up on the same page because they both get this. Steve Pagliuca does not (or doesn’t care).

                • …is the “hedging” or the “evasiveness” became the story.  I personally completely get the wisdom behind saying that I wouldn’t absolutely commit until I saw the final bill, but that’s different from advancing overall themes and certainly different from saying I would never vote for something I may have to bite the bullet and vote for in the end.  I don’t think you were with us then, but when Ogonowski ran against Tsongas in the CD-5 special in 2007 he got roundly criticized for not giving straight answers and was dubbed “I-don’t-know-ski” by many here.  If the press keep pushing and candidates keep hedging then the narrative becomes, “Candidate X is dodging and not answering the questions.  Why should we choose someone who won’t give us a straight answer?”  I’ve never known that to be to a candidate’s advantage.  Just for the record, I may not be an elected official myself, but my graduate degree IS in campaigning.

                • At the end of the day, both candidates said they would not support health care reform if the final bill included a Stupitts-style anti-abortion amendment.

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                  p>Isn’t that about as straight as it gets?

                • just not the one I would give if I were running.  In other words, I would support the package as being an overall improvement on the status quo even with the language.  If they really end up being confronted with this situation I would hope they vote for it.  (There’s no way of knowing whether their tough bargaining rhetoric will actually work.)  Ultimately it may be the case that only Capuano in his House capacity actually has to cast a vote as I believe the goal is still to pass by the end of the year, which would be prior to seating a new Senator.

  2. What a nice holiday surprise, a negative ad from Pags.  Wasn’t he the one who said Thanksgiving was his favorite holiday?  Guess he’s thankful he has enough money to throw away on ads that are meaningless.   Bet the cost of that ad would buy quite a few Thanksgiving dinners for the homeless, what a waste.

    • Homeless people are starving every single day of the year, don’t use them as a martyr for your cheap political shot.

  3. I just saw a fantastic Capuano ad on a few minutes ago, one I haven’t seen before, so I’m guessing its new (that said, i don’t watch tv, so I could be wrong).  

    • Happy Thanksgiving, BlueMass.

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      p>In between footage of American hispanos marching against hate (Lou Dobbs’, explicity), the Capuano campaign airs their ads promoting our U.S. Congressman’s bid for Kennedy’s (now Kirk’s) Senate seat.

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      p>It’s all the same good visuals we get from the English language ads. They have done an audio overdub in Spanish. All visual text remains in English. Mike endorses the ad at the end, in English, the language we know best.

    • I do not understand this ad.

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      p>Why is he talking about the former vice-president a few weeks out from the election?  How is this ad helping those undecided (who are most likely more concerned with the economy and healthcare)?  MAYBE a few Coakley supporters love his progressive record and switch, or maybe some Khazei supporters will change based on Khazei’s lack of viability.  But there is no way that increase will hedge the effects of those showing up and voting for her because of the name recognition.

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      p>It has been my impression that those who are most moved by this ad are already supporting him.

  4. Frontrunners Coakley and Capuano have said they will oppose a final health care reform bill if contains something similar to the Stupak anti-choice amendment.  Pagliuca and Khazei have said they would support the bill under these circumstances and would potentially be the much needed 60th vote.  I happen to think it’s an important factor in a Democratic primary in Massachusetts.  I think something needs to pass as an important first step.

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    p>Side note: I recently re-registered as a Democrat to vote for Alan Khazei in the primary.  But I’m only 90% committed.  I could sway a different way on December 8th.

    • I recently re-registered as a Democrat to vote for Alan Khazei in the primary.

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      p>You don’t say what your previous status was, but anyone in Massachusetts who is registered as unaffiliated with any party (officially “Unenrolled” or ‘U’ in the voter file) can choose any party ballot for a primary election.

    • What the actual results of the Stupitts language would be are in dispute, but if some studies are to be believed, a bill with that language is definitely not worth passing.

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      p>http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo…

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      In other words, though the immediate impact of the Stupak amendment will be limited to the millions of women initially insured through a new insurance exchange, over time, as the exchanges grow, the insurance industry will scale down their abortion coverage options until they offer none at all.

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      p>I sound like a broken record by constantly mentioning what I hear from friends, but amongst my friends, Pags is not helping himself with this position.  He is just securing his spot as the least pro-choice candidate in the race.

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      p>Coakley already had their votes, but she further endeared herself to my friends who work in the women’s health non-profit world after her stand on this issue.  And a few friends went from undecided to Capuano after Coakley said she would not have voted for the House bill because they viewed it as a wrongheaded political move.  

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      p>The Pags position is also incredibly un-nuanced.  Capuano has pushed him on it, but Pags dodged during the Greater Boston debate about whether he would support a bill with no public option.  It seems that Pags is willing to support any bill called health care reform.  

      • Capuano has pushed him on it, but Pags dodged during the Greater Boston debate about whether he would support a bill with no public option.  It seems that Pags is willing to support any bill called health care reform.

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        p>Pags is for 890 billion dollar insurance company bail-out, which is what we’ll get if we don’t get a public option.  Surprised?  

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        p>The public option also produces a substantial cost savings, in the order of a hundred billion.  

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        p>The bill’s got a few problems. It soaks people with pre-existing conditions for up to 400% of standard premium so that while the insurer cannot deny them coverage, it can price them out of the market.  

  5. as a response.

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    p>Courage (film clips of our troops)
    It takes many forms.  Like standing up for what is right especially when it is not popular (clip of Cap speaking against the Patriot Act).

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    p>Like moving an imperfect Health Care bill forward, to keep health care reform alive (same clip of Nancy Pelosi).

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    p>Even when you know your political opponents will use it against you (cue a clip of Martha saying she would not move the bill forward, and I really want the clip from Greater Boston where Pags shakes his finger at Cap).

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    p>I’m Mike Capuano and I approved this message, because I know, and I’ve demonstrated, that to be the next Senator from Massachusetts you have to have the courage to do what is right even when it is unpopular.

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    p>To me this is the defining difference in this race.  It is what separates Capuano from his opponents.

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