Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Suffolk Poll: Coakley Maintains Lead

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This may explain the urgency with which Mike Capuano’s BMG supporters are spinning mannagate.

http://www.bostonherald.com/ne…

While the poll shows Coakley on a roll with 44 percent of the vote in the primary to succeed the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, the results were a boost for first-time candidate Steve Pagliuca as well.

In just under two months, the Celtics [team stats] honcho and Bain Capital exec has ascended to second place with 17 percent of the vote – thanks to a self-funded, $4.5 million television ad blitz.

U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano, the former Somerville mayor, is stuck in neutral, statistically tied for second place with 16 percent. City Year founder Alan Khazei trails with 3 percent. The remaining 20 percent were undecided. The poll surveyed 600 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

and then the reality sets in:

In other words, Pagliuca’s followers are less likely to show up for a little-known primary than Capuano’s.

“If turnout is 25 or 30 percent, it looks like Capuano and Coakley are better positioned than Pagliuca,” Paleologos said.

http://www.bostonherald.com/ne…

Special elections are all about GOTV and having built a statewide organization, AG Coakley has the field covered.

Some bad news for the anti-gaming crowd in the poll as well:

Do you support casino gambling in Massachusetts?

Yes: 57 No: 37 Undecided: 7

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Comments

    • Sports arenas.

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      p>Commuter rail lines.

      <

      p>Pretty much any change from the status quo gets NIMBYed.

  2. I would hardly say that Coakley has the field covered; she has the majority of the activist base in her camp.

    <

    p>The grassroots are somewhat less than interested.

    <

    p>Consider (from the Herald piece):

    <

    p>

    An astounding 93 percent of Democratic voters couldn’t pinpoint the exact date of the Dec. 8 primary – and 73 percent didn’t even know in which month the primary will occur, according to a 7News/Suffolk University poll conducted over four days beginning Nov. 4.

    <

    p>and:

    <

    p>

    The results portend a painfully low turnout for the first open Senate race in nearly a quarter-century, and who wins the critical Democratic primary could depend on which voters actually show up.

    <

    p>At this stage I’ll go ahead and eat some words. When I made some early predictions, I presumed that Capuano would go around the activists directly to the field.  Nothing in the poll coverage would indicate that he’s done so.  

    <

    p>The poll indicates that there is no field worthy of the name working for any candidate.

    <

    p>There’s further bad news, based on the Channel Seven coverage:

    <

    p>

    Can the state afford its near-universal health care?

    56 percent say no.

    And when you get a chance next November to repeal the recent sales tax hike, 59 percent of you say you’ll take it.

    <

    p>I haven’t seen the marginals and crosstabs yet(the poll wasn’t on the Suffolk site, and the Channel 7 link didn’t have this specific poll), but it will be interesting to read the whole thing through.

    <

    p>

  3. Voter turnout efforts could be HUGE.

    Attorney General Martha Coakley continues to cruise in the U.S. Senate race but there’s one potential glitch: Most voters don’t know when the special election will be held, a new poll shows.

    An astounding 93 percent of Democratic voters couldn’t pinpoint the exact date of the Dec. 8 primary – and 73 percent didn’t even know in which month the primary will occur, according to a 7News/Suffolk University poll conducted over four days beginning Nov. 4.link

  4. Democratic primary voters say Pagliuca, not Coakley, is running the best campaign,

    and that Capuano, not Coakley, is the candidate most like Ted Kennedy,

    The winner of the Democratic primary will likely be the next senator (but we knew that.)
    link

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