Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

The health care / anti-abortion amendment decision tree

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Here are the sixteen possible outcomes of this tree:

  1. Candidate votes against amendment, amendment fails, candidate votes against bill, bill fails

  2. Candidate votes against amendment, amendment fails, candidate votes against bill, bill passes

  3. Candidate votes against amendment, amendment fails, candidate votes for bill, bill fails

  4. Candidate votes against amendment, amendment fails, candidate votes for bill, bill passes

  5. Candidate votes against amendment, amendment passes, candidate votes against bill, bill fails

  6. Candidate votes against amendment, amendment passes, candidate votes against bill, bill passes

  7. Candidate votes against amendment, amendment passes, candidate votes for bill, bill fails

  8. Candidate votes against amendment, amendment passes, candidate votes for bill, bill passes

  9. Candidate votes for amendment, amendment fails, candidate votes against bill, bill fails

  10. Candidate votes for amendment, amendment fails, candidate votes against bill, bill passes

  11. Candidate votes for amendment, amendment fails, candidate votes for bill, bill fails

  12. Candidate votes for amendment, amendment fails, candidate votes for bill, bill passes

  13. Candidate votes for amendment, amendment passes, candidate votes against bill, bill fails

  14. Candidate votes for amendment, amendment passes, candidate votes against bill, bill passes

  15. Candidate votes for amendment, amendment passes, candidate votes for bill, bill fails

  16. Candidate votes for amendment,amendment passes, candidate votes for bill, bill passes

Since all four candidates oppose an anti-abortion amendment, and presumably will vote against it, we can elide the bottom eight. That leaves eight possible outcomes to explore, as follows:

  1. Amendment fails, candidate votes against bill, bill fails

  2. Amendment fails, candidate votes against bill, bill passes

  3. Amendment fails, candidate votes for bill, bill fails

  4. Amendment fails, candidate votes for bill, bill passes

  5. Amendment passes, candidate votes against bill, bill fails

  6. Amendment passes, candidate votes against bill, bill passes

  7. Amendment passes, candidate votes for bill, bill fails

  8. Amendment passes, candidate votes for bill, bill passes

It seems to me that the political ramifications of each of these eight are worth considering — what is the likelihood, what are the consequences, what is the “right” political calculus?

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