Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Heres the Fun! Election Predictions

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I think Capuano has good momentum heading into the election with hard campaigning and criss-crossing the state rapidly during the campaign season.. Coakley started off strong but then fell staight off the wagon with generic commercials and soft support from name recognition without any real substantial news on what exactly she stands for. Khazei has made a great push and has picked up some key endorsements causing some people to take a second maybe even first look at this fine candidate. Finishing last i think will be Pags. He has OVERLOADED the airwaves and the internet with vague advertisements and hasnt had a creative thing to say besides “I agree with Mike”

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  1. I agree that momentum seems to be on his side. I also think that Coakley’s initial strength was name recognition from being on the Six O’Clock News every night, and that her base may not show up on Tuesday.
    Of the two vanity candidates, I’ll give the slight edge to Pagliuca- I happen to think his ads will get him a few more points than Khazei.

  2. 1 – Mike Capuano by a hair, in the wee hours of the morning
    2 – Martha Coakley
    3 – Alan Khazei, closer than expected, siphoning off enough from Martha Coakley to put Mike Capuano on top
    4 – Steve Pagliuca, distant fourth

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    p>I think it’s going to be a late night and razor-thin separation between Mike Capuano and Martha Coakley.

  3. 1-Coakley.  You don’t see too many of her supporters on this site, but they’re out there.  She’s very, very well-liked, and has a solid team behind her.

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    p>2-Capuano.  Another month in the campaign, I think it would be a Capuano win.  A lot of the institution is behind him, as are many activists.

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    p>3-Khazei.  A little momentum, but doubling single digits still doesn’t get you the win.  But I think Bay Staters are decreasingly likely to take a shot on an unproven candidate.

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    p>4-Pagliuca.  The preferred candidate of people who won’t get around to voting.  If you pick candidates based on tv ads, you probably will not get to the polls on the right day.

      • I’m getting around the same, Cap closer to 25 and Khazei closer to 20, based on the Suffolk and Rasmussen polls (since they’re all we have)…

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        p>But I think the real campaign just began this week, so it could change a lot. I can see Capuano or Khazei potentially winning.

    1. Coakley by at least 5%
      2. Toss-up between Capuano and Pagliuca
      3. Khazei not far behind

    • For what it is worth:

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      p>Capuano – 38%
      Coakley – 37%
      Khazei – 16%
      Pagliuca -9

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      p>Momentum is with Capuano, polling has proved it even if slowly. Only candidate that has steadily climbed (Pagliuca did for a few weeks, but he was smoked out). Coakley hasn’t moved anywhere but down or stayed flat. Only way Capuano could have won this race was if she ran a poor campaign and she has done that without a doubt IMO.

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      p>Khazei will come to close to doubling his vote over the final two weeks, but that will bring him to 16 or so.

      <

      p>Pags hasn’t moved and his voters are not coming out.  

  5. I think Coakley has the lead among registered voters, but special election primaries are decided by a small group of voters fueled by passion and organization.

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    p>Gender favors Coakley.

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    p>Organization favors Capuano.

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    p>Passion favors Capuano.

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    p>I think the passionate progressives and the feminists will neutralize each other.  My question is how much effort will mayors and other folks with a local political base put in for Capuano?   Does Boston come out big for Capuano?  Does Capuano do well enough in Cambridge and Somerville to balance out Coakley’s advantage in the rest of Middlesex County?

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    p>My political gut tells me that Capuano will get a narrow win by doing well in urban communities.  Coakley and Khazei are playing to the suburbs, and in that demographic a Khazei surge will hurt Coakley more than Capuano.

    <

    p>My current guess:
    Capuano – 39%
    Coakley – 38%
    Khazei – 18%
    Pagliuca – 5%

    1. Coakley – by at least 5 points, maybe more if tonight’s debate is like last night’s.
      2. Capuano – stalling out and losing his more liberal supporters to Khazei
      3. Khazei – Globe and BMG endorsements get him close to Caps
      4. Pagliuca – fading FAST

    <

    p>Also, word is there was not a single Capuano sign or supporter outside WCVB before the debate last night. Now obviously, those visibilities are all a bit of political stagecraft, but there’s a lot of field organization that goes into getting a presence out for something like that. I think the fact that the Capuano folks couldn’t get ANYONE out there that bodes ill for their ground game as the campaigns shift into GOTV mode. Then again, maybe they’re saving their powder. We’ll see.  

    • “Also, word is there was not a single Capuano sign or supporter outside WCVB before the debate last night.”

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      p>Whose word?

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      p>”Capuano folks couldn’t get ANYONE out “

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      p>Aren’t you assuming the campaign tried and failed?  I don’t know differently but then again. I’m not making the argument. Have you seen one shot or photo in the press of the people standing out in front of WCVB TV?  I haven’t.

      • blurgh,

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        p>You obviously you don’t know much about field. One week out from a special election, you don’t allocate your resources to a visiblity that will be seen by weary commuters who you have no idea what percentage will be voting on Tuesday.

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        p>How many voters did that convince?

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        p>I, like many supporters handed out lit in targeted areas. I also know that the Capuano campaign made phone calls to targeted voters all night long at many locations around the state.

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        p>Standouts? Seriously? They are part of the program and at this point in the game they should be last on the list. To put a ton of resources at that location was a fail IMO.

        <

        p>

  8. Coakley 34%
    Capuano 25%
    Pagliuca 20%
    Khazei 11%

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    p>Capuano and Coakley mixed it up with Pags for a reason during the debate, he’ll have a strong showing.  Like all of the other debates Khazei was ignored.  There is a reason for that, he’ll be in last.  Let’s not kid ourselves.

  9. Thanksgiving was the end of the race. Everybody’s shopping. Or avoiding shopping.

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    p>Coakley’s the only one with any real statewide name recognition and organization. I think the gender issue is also a factor. The “anti-coakley” vote’s getting split between Cap and Khazei. Pags, for a first time, won’t do too bad; but he seems to be fading.

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    p>But turnout turnout turnout.

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    p>My prediction:

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    p>Coakley – 37
    Capuano – 28 (longer race/no holidays this might have been his year)
    Khazei – 25 (Globe bump)
    Pag’s – Whatever’s left. Should have given the money to charity, rather than TV stations and consultants.  

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    p>

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