Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Online poll shows Khazei ahead

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Granted that this is an online poll and is not scientifically valid, but for a race that everyone believes will have very low turnout, a sample size that’s approaching 2,000 could be significant, and could mean that Khazei has some real momentum after the Globe, BMG, Clark, and other endorsements…

See Boston.com poll

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    • As it is in fact a poll.

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      p>Now a poll using proper scientific methods?  No.

      <

      p>However, I’ve got $20 that says more than a few Capuano and Coakley supporters will take the time to vote after berating someone for suggesting this poll is in anyway valid or reflective of the race.

    • Someone gave me a “needs work” because I pointed out that this isn’t a real poll. Wow, people are pretty sensitive around here  

  2. “Sample size” my sweet fanny.

    <

    p>Candidate-itis strikes again. Take two grains of salt and try again in Wednesday morning.

    • Any tech-astute “online voter” knows how to cast as many votes as they choose…hats off to the Khazei kids, they were persistent and kept the ball rolling as long as it took to get this outcome and get BMG to bump it to the front page…in this particular poll i know at least 3 people who voted more than 20 times and got bored.

      • At Boston. com link included with above posting, they put a caveat on their own poll:
        “Boston.com’s surveys are not intended to be a scientific sampling of local or national opinion, but rather, a quick and informal way for you to record your views on a variety of subjects. Although the surveys are designed to record just one vote per person, savvy users may find a way to vote more than once. So take that into consideration the next time you see Spam outpolling turkey as a favorite Thanksgiving Day meal.”

  3. All it shows is that of those online Globe readers who are willing to click polls and tech-savvy enough to find hem (or be emailed links to them by friends), Khazei’s winning in a race where all the candidates were on the ballot at the same time.

    <

    p>Now, none of this is any skeptical view on whether or not I think Khazei can win. I wouldn’t have endorsed him if I didn’t think he could win. However, I’ve always tried to be open and honest about my thoughts and opinions on BMG, often to a fault, and I’m not going to stop that now.

    <

    p>All that said, I’m certainly happy that a lot of Globe readers have proven to be Khazei supporters. While the Globe’s subscription numbers have gone down, it still has lots of readers, probably as many as ever online. Khazei could certainly use as many of their votes as possible.

  5. I bet this race, because it’s the Twitter era and because it’s a special election with boring candidates that hardly anyone cares about, will have more actual voters who are internet users than most races, so an on-line poll might be more accurate than usual.

    <

    p>And those endorsements might have given everyone permission to go off reservation and support the unknown guy instead of the expected picks, more than a Capuano or Coakley endorsement would have swung anyone.

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    p>I am going to make a prediction that the election matches this poll.  It’s obvious now, the whole saga has been a setup to give us Senator Khazei to succeed Kirk in running Kennedy’s office.  Capuano and Coakley are only dutifully filling temporary roles of “expected boring picks” to help catapult Obama’s and Kennedy’s puppet into the seat, like he’s John Kerry II.  Pagliuca is probably running just to pay the media bills for the election, and will be rewarded with something later on.

    • You mean because Massachusetts can only be represented by Senators whose last names begin with “K,” perhaps.

      <

      p>I’m surprised Khazei hasn’t cited this when confronted with “legacy of Kennedy” questions, as a matter of fact.

    • that can say that. Good for him.

      <

      p>I don’t believe the number of voters who are internet users has increased enough (so far) to make an online poll such as this more valid. Unfortunately for Khazei, this sample could not possibly be an accurate representation of the people most likely to go to the polls on Tuesday. I don’t think my Mother and her friends have ever voted in an online poll.

    • I’ll bet the only people who found this poll were the Khazei folks who voted for Khazei, removed the Globe poll cookie, rinse, repeat.

      • I was just wondering if the results reflected the article to which it was attached…running this survey next to a Khazei endorsement would attract a different audience and elicit a different response than if this were on the front page.  I just can’t figure out to what article(s) this poll is attached.

  7. Granted that this is an online poll and is not scientifically valid

    <

    p>But that’s the whole ballgame right there. I have nothing against Khazei, but it’s a simple fact that online polls such as this one are quite literally worth no more than would the Globe’s reporting on “deep background” that “some guy says that Khazei is going to next Tuesday.”

    • But I don’t understand why a campaign of this nature would choose to spend valuable money this close to the election.  This isn’t a normal election where even minimal cross tabs can be analyzed to adjust their strategy.  This race is unpredictable.  I would hope they are spending their money on GOTV operations.

      • I’m not suggesting Khazei or any other campaign commissioned this poll, i’m speaking to the nature of the race and polls in general.

  9. Kind of a crazy thought here, but maybe New England’s leading news organization shouldn’t run unscientific polls.  

  10. Has anybody in the mainstream media done anything to analyze the notion of base and geographic voting in prior elections as a means of trying to get a clear picture of what is likely to happen next week rather than rely on polls that show a tremendously high number of undecideds (ergo, likely non-voters)?

    <

    p>Let’s take a quick peek at the numbers.

    <

    p>Jan. 2008 – enrolled voters (last #s I could find on Sec. State’s site. I will use them and make the assumption they are with 5%+- of present figures.)

    <

    p>STATEWIDE

    <

    p>4,010,313 total

    <

    p>DEM:   1,475,769 36.80%
    U:     2,018,746 50.34%

    <

    p>BARNSTABLE COUNTY

    <

    p>164,250 total

    <

    p>DEM: 43,656 26.58%
    U:   90,181 54.90%

    <

    p>BERKSHIRE COUNTY

    <

    p>86,930 total

    <

    p>DEM:  32,061 36.88%
    U:    44,806 51.54%

    <

    p>BRISTOL COUNTY

    <

    p>330,614 total

    <

    p>DEM:  126,202 38.17%
    U:    166,687 50.42%

    <

    p>DUKES COUNTY

    <

    p>12,419 total

    <

    p>DEM:  4,326 34.83%
    U:    6,490 52.26%

    <

    p>ESSEX COUNTY

    <

    p>463,817 total

    <

    p>DEM:   153,658 33.13%
    U:     247,342 53.33%

    <

    p>FRANKLIN COUNTY

    <

    p>47,683 total

    <

    p>DEM:    14,378 30.15%
    U:      27,651 57.99%

    <

    p>HAMPDEN COUNTY

    <

    p>275,060 total

    <

    p>DEM:    108,676 39.51%
    U:      125,937 45.79%

    <

    p>HAMPSHIRE COUNTY

    <

    p>95,805 total

    <

    p>DEM:     36,622 38.23%
    U:       48,842 50.98%

    <

    p>MIDDLESEX COUNTY

    <

    p>895,365 total

    <

    p>DEM:     342,034 38.20%
    U:       446,302 49.85%

    <

    p>NANTUCKET COUNTY

    <

    p>8,213 total

    <

    p>DEM:     2,242 27.30%
    U:       4,396 53.52%

    <

    p>NORFOLK COUNTY

    <

    p>434,518 total

    <

    p>DEM:     157,015 36.14%
    U:       220,161 50.67% 4

    <

    p>PLYMOUTH COUNTY

    <

    p>315,133 total
    DEM:     93,045 29.53%
    U:       174,323 55.32%

    <

    p>SUFFOLK COUNTY

    <

    p>392,327 total

    <

    p>DEM:     211,428 53.89%
    U:       147,703 37.65%

    <

    p>WORCESTER COUNTY

    <

    p>488,179 total

    <

    p>DEM:     150,426 30.81%
    U:       267,925 54.88%

    <

    p>Of other interest, here’s Capuano’s vote totals from his 1998 primary win. Very telling – look how low the turnout was:

    <

    p>HOUSE DISTRICT 8
    Parts of Boston and suburbs — Cambridge; Somerville, Watertown, Belmont, Chelsea)

    <

    p>*Michael E. Capuano (D)                           18,874  23.2%

    <

    p>Raymond L. Flynn (D)                             13,948  17.2%

    <

    p>George A. Bachrach (D)                           11,930  

    <

    p>John T. O’Connor (D)                             10,679  13.1%

    <

    p>Marjorie O’Neill Clapprood (D)                    9,965  12.3%

    <

    p>Christopher F. Gabrieli (D)                       5,526   6.8%

    <

    p>Charles Yancey (D)                                3,954   4.9%

    <

    p>Susan M. Tracy (D)                                2,573   3.2%

    <

    p>Thomas M. Keane Jr.(D)                            2,120   2.6%

    <

    p>Alex Rodriguez (D)                                1,683   2.1%

    <

    p>TOTAL VOTES:  81,252

    <

    p>Last from the Cambridge Civic Journal website, an instructive look at who votes (based municpal, ‘off year’ elections) in Cambridge, a truly progressive community.

    <

    p>1999

    <

    p>58,666 total registered
    19,161 voted
    33% turnout(45% of “active” voters)

    <

    p>2001

    <

    p>56,973 total registered
    17,688 voted
    31% turnout(40% of “active” voters)

    <

    p>2003

    <

    p>55,831 total registered
    20,958 voted
    38% (51% of “active” voters)

    <

    p>2005

    <

    p>56641 total registered
    16202 voted
    29% turnout (39% of “active” voters)

    <

    p>2007

    <

    p>56339 total registered
    13721 voted
    24% turnout (35% of “active voters”)

    <

    p>My observations and takeways:

    <

    p>1.  How important is Middlesex County? The argument can be made that Coakley and Capuano will rise or fall here. I suspect that Capuano will do very well in the southern portion of the county and Coakley, through her Tsongas support, will do well in the northern portion.

    <

    p>2. Suffolk, by virtue of its high concentration of Dems, will play a significant role. My question: Where will Menino be? With Capuano or Coakley? The team that has the strongest field operation in this county will reap rewards. Menino’s field organization is legendary – when he chooses to use it. Who will he get behind?

    <

    p>3. 8th Congressional Distric is huge for Capuano. Assume a similar voting # (say 70,000 total), Capuano will need to get a lion share of this, perhaps as many as 70% of the overall total. If he can pull 60%, he would gain a sizable base to work from (42,000). It’s not outrageous to see him getting 50,000 votes here.

    <

    p>4.  Other key counties include Essex (where Capuano has campaigned heavily and where he is supported by Tierney and Markey), Worcester (where Coakley is widely supported by the politcal establishment EXCEPT for Guy Glodis, whose family machine is legendary in CMass), and Norfolk, which is arguably Coakley country. But will Norfolk turn out?

    <

    p>My prediction:

    <

    p>Vote turnout will be an anemic 13-15% statewide. I base that on the time of year, the continuing decline in electoral interest outside major national or statewide elections, and the high # of undecideds, which to my way of thinking, means a high # of people who do not vote on Dec. 8th.

    <

    p>As such, with roughly 520,000-600,0000 people heading to the polls, the winner apparently will need some 35-40% of the vote to succeed (based on the polling data we’ve all heard or read.) IMHO, the winning camp will need to ID and GOTV to the tune of 200,000-220,000 people. When the votes are counted, I expect this to be the story.  

    • Thanks for your observations, manny. One of them I wanted to add to.
      You said:
      “4.  Other key counties include Essex (where Capuano has campaigned heavily and where he is supported by Tierney and Markey), Worcester (where Coakley is widely supported by the politcal establishment EXCEPT for Guy Glodis, whose family machine is legendary in CMass), and Norfolk, which is arguably Coakley country. But will Norfolk turn out?”

      <

      p>I agree Essex County may be critical. Capuano has Cong.Tierney but Tierney does not have a solid field organization and has done almost no campaigning for Mike here….at one Democratic event he never mentioned his name, just talked about his own work in Congress

      <

      p> Coakley is supported by DA Blodgett, Peabody mayor Bonfanti, Salem Mayor Driscoll, Senator Fred Berry and all local Reps except for Ted Speliotis in Danvers (but Danvers is low voter turnout compared to cities) Down in Gloucester Capuano got the unpopular mayor while Coakley is supported by the very popular Rep Ferrante and the Fishermen family organization…In Lynn Coakley has Rep Steve Walsh working hard on her behalf…(the new Lynn Mayor is Republican and out of it)

      <

      p>In the Northern Essex area Coakley has Niki Tsongas, Rep Harriette Stanley, Senator Baddor. The Lawrence Eagle tribune endorsed Pagliucca which was appropriate because they are a Republican-business oriented publication.

      <

      p>If Essex County is a bell weather, I think it will be a strong day for Coakley. She polled very well here in the AG race and Hillary Clinton rolled up her highest numbers in Essex County in the Dem. Presidential Primary.

      <

      p>As for Worcester…Jim McGovern and Joe O’Brien and Guy Glodis are with Capuano…Tim Murray is staying wisely out of the fray…but Central and Western MA folks like to vote for candidates who know more than a fly by about their part of the state…Coakley grew up in Western Mass and that gives her an edge and she polled strong statewide in Central and Western Mass in the past AG race. People already know her there, she’s not the new face in town.

      • Central Mass and Western Mass into the same grouping?  Do you know how far North Adams is from Worcester? It’s not just geographically distant but culturally and politically as well.

  11. The ratio of Dems to U is so pronounced. Obviously, there is likely to be a disproprotionately higher turnout in terms of registered Ds than other counties.

    <

    p>Capuano must earn a high %age in Suffolk. Or he is cooked.  

  12. Their work on Capuano’s behalf will be a measure of how his team will do next year in the State Auditor run (presumed candidacy, that is.)

  13. Any poll where the individual polled makes the choice to participate, and nothing is done to assess a balanced spectrum of the electorate, produces a result that may feel good to the top choice, but says nothing of value about the race.

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