Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

So, can Coakley be caught in the last week?

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Clearly she has not won a huge following here at BMG.  But, and no disrespect to us, we are not exactly representative of the primary electorate are we?  Nevertheless, polling shows the race tightening some, with both Capuano and Khazei making up some ground.  Coakley still however holds a significant double-digit lead.  Turnout will be huge of course.  Khazei and Capuano of course take votes from each other as well as her.  So what do people think, can she be caught?

Now, personally, I really friggin hope she is caught.  I started out watching this campaign with a pretty favorable impression of her.  But her campaign has left me empty and to be truthful this is the first real race she has run as her DA and AG races were cake walks over cupcakes and never provided much to judge her by.  He tenure as AG has been solid if unremarkable and she is no doubt competent (but that is a low bar). The cautious and uninspired campaign she has run doesn’t give me a lot of confidence she will be a real player in the Senate.  And I know people say it took years for Kennedy himself to develop into the legislative powerhouse he became.  Yeah, that’s true.  But we don’t have years to wait for our next Senator to develop.  I want a leader now!

So like many here, I LIKE MIKE.  He most possesses that Kennedyesque combination of progressive passion matched to political/legislative nous.  And I care a lot about the state of our urban communities: areas that need economic renewal, jobs, transportation and housing.  Capuano get’s that stuff better than anyone in this race and most people outside it.  He’d add that perspective to a Senate where few members have a background in municipal government.  

Anyway, I’ve been out of town a lot with work these days so I am not up to speed with the ground game, which should matter given the turnout will be important.  I hope she’s caught, but can she be at this late stage?

 

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Comments

  1. I feel almost exactly like you.  Started out with a favorable impression of Coakley.  Now, feeling very turned off by her safe, cautious frontrunner’s campaign.  While that approach may have helped her maintain her lead in polls, it probably isn’t really energizing voters.  Mike Capuano’s passionate performance in the debates, on the other hand, hopefully will.  If a poll comes out showing Capuano continuing to close the gap, I think he’ll pick up some last minute support from Khazei voters who prefer him to Coakley.  There’s still a lot of work to be done, but I’m feeling more and more optimistic every day.

    <

    p>PS-  Wouldn’t it be great if the electorate were more like us, though?

  2. I have seen this as a two way race for a while now, so it doesn’t surprise me that Capuano is preforming close to Coakley. I am surprised by two developments, that 1) Khazei has gone from polling somewhere around the margin of error, to being head and shoulder above Pagliuca (No polling to back it up, but endorsements, and media attention seem to say so) and 2) Coakley has completely stalled. Not a single media endorsement as a front runner? Nothing positive in the press except that Beam thinks shes hott?  

    • She lost 7 points in two consecutive weeks (three and two weeks ago) and 14 point in the week ending Tuesday.

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      p>79% are undecided.

      <

      p>I think the winner is the one who gets the vote out Tuesday.  

  4. She will not be caught. There is good reason why she has been the frontrunner from the get go. Voters in Massachusetts respect, admire and TRUST her…no backslapping, no smoke blowing, just intelligent, competent straight talkin’ Martha…guess that’s what they want. Anyone who watched last night’s debate got a glimpse into why she is still the frontrunner and will continue to be.

    <

    p>Mike, Steve and Alan…you are all good men…but she is one strong woman who will be our next US Senator.  It’s time.

  5. Has anybody in the mainstream media done anything to analyze the notion of base and geographic voting in prior elections as a means of trying to get a clear picture of what is likely to happen next week?

    <

    p>Let’s take a quick peek:

    <

    p>Jan. 2008 – enrolled voters (last #s I could find on Sec. State site. I will use them and make the assumption they are with 5%+- of present figures.)

    <

    p>STATEWIDE

    <

    p>4,010,313 total

    <

    p>DEM:   1,475,769 36.80%
    U:     2,018,746 50.34%

    <

    p>BARNSTABLE COUNTY

    <

    p>164,250 total

    <

    p>DEM: 43,656 26.58%
    U:   90,181 54.90%

    <

    p>BERKSHIRE COUNTY

    <

    p>86,930 total

    <

    p>DEM:  32,061 36.88%
    U:    44,806 51.54%

    <

    p>BRISTOL COUNTY

    <

    p>330,614 total

    <

    p>DEM:  126,202 38.17%
    U:    166,687 50.42%

    <

    p>DUKES COUNTY

    <

    p>12,419 total

    <

    p>DEM:  4,326 34.83%
    U:    6,490 52.26%

    <

    p>ESSEX COUNTY

    <

    p>463,817 total

    <

    p>DEM:   153,658 33.13%
    U:     247,342 53.33%

    <

    p>FRANKLIN COUNTY

    <

    p>47,683 total

    <

    p>DEM:    14,378 30.15%
    U:      27,651 57.99%

    <

    p>HAMPDEN COUNTY

    <

    p>275,060 total

    <

    p>DEM:    108,676 39.51%
    U:      125,937 45.79%

    <

    p>HAMPSHIRE COUNTY

    <

    p>95,805 total

    <

    p>DEM:     36,622 38.23%
    U:       48,842 50.98%

    <

    p>MIDDLESEX COUNTY

    <

    p>895,365 total

    <

    p>DEM:     342,034 38.20%
    U:       446,302 49.85%

    <

    p>NANTUCKET COUNTY

    <

    p>8,213 total

    <

    p>DEM:     2,242 27.30%
    U:       4,396 53.52%

    <

    p>NORFOLK COUNTY

    <

    p>434,518 total

    <

    p>DEM:     157,015 36.14%
    U:       220,161 50.67% 4

    <

    p>PLYMOUTH COUNTY

    <

    p>315,133 total
    DEM:     93,045 29.53%
    U:       174,323 55.32%

    <

    p>SUFFOLK COUNTY

    <

    p>392,327 total

    <

    p>DEM:     211,428 53.89%
    U:       147,703 37.65%

    <

    p>WORCESTER COUNTY

    <

    p>488,179 total

    <

    p>DEM:     150,426 30.81%
    U:       267,925 54.88%

    <

    p>Of other interest, here’s Capuano’s vote totals from his 1998 primary win. Very telling – look how low the turnout was:

    <

    p>HOUSE DISTRICT 8
    Parts of Boston and suburbs — Cambridge; Somerville, Watertown, Belmont, Chelsea)

    <

    p>*Michael E. Capuano (D)                           18,874  23.2%

    <

    p>Raymond L. Flynn (D)                             13,948  17.2%

    <

    p>George A. Bachrach (D)                           11,930  

    <

    p>John T. O’Connor (D)                             10,679  13.1%

    <

    p>Marjorie O’Neill Clapprood (D)                    9,965  12.3%

    <

    p>Christopher F. Gabrieli (D)                       5,526   6.8%

    <

    p>Charles Yancey (D)                                3,954   4.9%

    <

    p>Susan M. Tracy (D)                                2,573   3.2%

    <

    p>Thomas M. Keane Jr.(D)                            2,120   2.6%

    <

    p>Alex Rodriguez (D)                                1,683   2.1%

    <

    p>TOTAL VOTES:  81,252

    <

    p>Last from the Cambridge Civic Journal website, an instructive look at who votes (based municpal, ‘off year’ elections) in Cambridge, a truly progressive community.

    <

    p>1999

    <

    p>58,666 total registered
    19,161 voted
    33% turnout(45% of “active” voters)

    <

    p>2001

    <

    p>56,973 total registered
    17,688 voted
    31% turnout(40% of “active” voters)

    <

    p>2003

    <

    p>55,831 total registered
    20,958 voted
    38% (51% of “active” voters)

    <

    p>2005

    <

    p>56641 total registered
    16202 voted
    29% turnout (39% of “active” voters)

    <

    p>2007

    <

    p>56339 total registered
    13721 voted
    24% turnout (35% of “active voters”)

    <

    p>My observations and takeways:

    <

    p>1.  How important is Middlesex County? The argument can be made that Coakley and Capuano will rise or fall here. I suspect that Capuano will do very well in the southern portion of the county and Coakley, through her Tsongas support, will do well in the northern portion.

    <

    p>2. Suffolk, by virtue of its high concentration of Dems, will play a significant role. My question: Where will Menino be? With Capuano or Coakley? The team that has the strongest field operation in this county will reap rewards. Menino’s field organization is legendary – when he chooses to use it. Who will he get behind?

    <

    p>3. 8th Congressional Distric is huge for Capuano. Assume a similar voting # (say 70,000 total), Capuano will need to get a lion share of this, perhaps as many as 70% of the overall total. If he can pull 60%, he would gain a sizable base to work from (42,000). It’s not outrageous to see him getting 50,000 votes here.

    <

    p>4.  Other key counties include Essex (where Capuano has campaigned heavily and where he is supported by Tierney and Markey), Worcester (where Coakley is widely supported by the politcal establishment EXCEPT for Guy Glodis, whose family machine is legendary in CMass), and Norfolk, which is arguably Coakley country. But will Norfolk turn out?

    <

    p>My prediction:

    <

    p>Vote turnout will be an anemic 13-15% statewide. I base that on the time of year, the continuing decline in electoral interest outside major national or statewide elections, and the high # of undecideds, which to my way of thinking, means a high # of people who do not vote on Dec. 8th.

    <

    p>As such, with roughly 520,000-600,0000 people heading to the polls, the winner apparently will need some 35-40% of the vote to succeed (based on the polling data we’ve all heard or read.) IMHO, the winning camp will need to ID and GOTV to the tune of 200,000-220,000 people. When the votes are counted, I expect this to be the story.  

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