Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

The Facebook poll

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Please bear with me.  

I have been looking at the number of supporters the candidates have on their facebook pages.  I think they give a somewhat useful insight into the Senate race.

As of 11:00am, the number of facebook supporters per candidate was:

Martha Coakley – 5,463

Mike Capuano – 3,790

Alan Khazei – 3,193

Steve Pagliuca – 797 (ouch!)

A few caveats.

1. Martha Coakley had about 1500 supporters before any other candidate announced.  

2. Some facebook users are supporters of more than one campaign.

3. Khazei’s campaign and its focus on younger voters may be an issue.

What is the point?  I’m not sure, but I think the rate of change in supporters is reflective of the relative momentum of the campaigns.  The number of facebook supporters for both the Capuano and Khazei have been growing at a much faster rate than the other campaigns. I don’t think that is surprising.

I have not been following this with anything close to scientific scrutiny, but it appears that the Capuano and Khazei campaigns are growing at a rate of about 100 supporters per day.  The Coakley campaign is growing at a rate of about 50 supporters per day.  Pagliuca’s campaign is growing by a few supporters per day.  

This is probably a sillier indicator of the race than the Globe reader poll, but what do others think?

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Comments

  1. This is just as unscientific as the online Globe poll because it’s not done with a simple random sample and is only completed by people who seek out the Facebook page and sign up, so there’s a response bias.

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    p>While I understand your argument that the rate of growth in FB supporters may roughly indicate momentum toward a specific candidate, it’s too weak to draw anything from.  Clicking “Become a Fan” on a Facebook page or voting on the Globe website is much easier and passive than knocking on doors, putting up signs, or phone-banking in support of a candidate.  It’s even easier than actually voting in a real election.  Now of course, responding to a scientific poll is also easier than these things, but at least those are done scientifically by obtaining a random sample of the electorate and reaching out to people systematically (not having them come to you), so assumptions can be made from those.

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    p>With all that said, you would think spending gazillions of dollars on TV and online ads would give Pags more than 1,000 Facebook fans…ouch is right.

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