Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Super Bowl Open Thread

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What’s everyone doing today?  On Christmas I started a Christmas Day open thread.  Among other things, I wanted to give people who don’t “do” Christmas achance to talk about the challenges of not celebrating.

Is Super Bowl the same?  Eight years ago, when the Pats were first in the Super Bowl, I went to a caucus that was inadvertently scheduled in conflict with the beginning of Super Bowl.  Then I went to a Super Bowl where they took a straw poll on Governor and Steve Grossman won. Yes, I know, I am a political junkie.  

Well I’m not much of a football fan and I think that it is similar to people sitting around on Christmas Day.  I can’t make a phone call inviting someone to a caucus or the Howard Dean event with Steve Grossman, because of the Super Bowl.  

So use the Open Thread to talk about the game, why is Grace running, why Martha lost or whatever you choose.

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  1. I am not a football fan – just never got into it.  My son has friends over to eat good stuff, check out the commercials and generally socialize. My daughter is off watching science fiction movies with some of her friends, my husband is at the church doing accounting and finance stuff.  Me?  Catching up on “this and that” in the home office and socializing intermittently.

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    p>If I get enough done, maybe I will also get some work done on the Tax & Governance Pyramid – a simple chart summarizing what I have figured out.  

    <

    p>You know the food pyramid?  I am working on a graphic about governance and taxes along the same lines.  The base line of the period is what most adults do for themselves.  The next line is local governance; what is its stewardship, and so on up the governance food chain.

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    p>If I get it done in black and white, probably hand drawn, and create a scan of it, maybe one of the gurus here can help me figure out how to embed it and explain what I have analyzed.

        • Teeny tiny kitties vs. a guy whose vocal range is down to less than an octave …. hmmmm….. such a tough choice NOT.

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          p>And memo to ad agencies — there ARE women watching this game. A lot of them. All these ads in which the only salvation for men who have been emasculated by their wives/girlfriends is a product. I guess these companies don’t want my business.

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          p>Oh, and WHO DAT?

    • made me watch this for the entire half time show…except it was the kitten half time show.

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      p>It was STILL on when I left at 10:00.

    • The KISS ad was good if you got the “Little KISS” joke, IMO. Apparently there is also a “Mini KISS” band. I don’t know what the appeal is.

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      p>Saying this as someone in the target demographic and as a big Who fan, in short time they will run out of classic rock acts to put on and we’ll move on to the next stage.  I’m OK either way – if I don’t like it, I can get away from the tube for a while or watch the alternate choices on other channels.

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      p>Beyond recent history, there have been some really horrible half-time shows.  I’ll take the Who (even a very old 1/2 Who) over Up With People any time.

        • Do you want to come to the Howard Dean fundraiser in Boston on Monday?  It would be great to see you again and it should be a fun event.

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          p>Governor HOWARD DEAN in Boston!!!

          <

          p>Please join us for a reception in support of Steve Grossman, candidate for Massachusetts Treasurer. Meet former presidential candidate and former DNC chair. Join activists from across the state.
             $500 Friend
             $250 Supporter
             $125 Guest
             $50 Activist
             Other

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          p>Monday, February 8th at 6:00 pm Boston Park Plaza 50 Park Plaza at Arlington Street Boston, MA

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          p>Donate at http://www.actblue.com/page/st… to be included on the RSVP list. Send an e-mail to KateDonaghue@aol.com if you are bringing a guest.

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          p>If you prefer donating by check, please send your contribution, made payable to the “Steve Grossman for Treasurer Committee,” to “Steve Grossman for Treasurer,” P.O. Box 132, Somerville, MA 02143.  

    • but I look at what the Patriots did against these two teams.  We should have beat the Colts (and BTW, the 4th and 2 call was the right one – just a gamble lost) but we got smoked by the Saints.  Not sure about this whole sentiment over Peyton Manning, but the Saints waxed us.  How you could predict the Colts as the overwhelming favorites was beyond my limited comprehension..

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      p>Great game, all of the Katrina sentiment aside.  They were the better team.

        • He was expected to beat us in the two AFC championships where we beat him, expected to beat us the time they had to come from behind and take on the sacrificial lamb of the bears, they didn’t beat our near-perfect team. Like the dude should have had five rings by now if he was as good as people say he is.

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          p>I still say its the rings that count Brady>Manning

          • Yet if he’d won yesterday and gone 10-8, the coronation would have gone on as planned.  I met Joe Montana, and Peyton, you’re no Joe Montana.

  10. But the key was the disastrous Colts secondary.  It’s as if they didn’t even show up.  No better way to end it though, than a Manning interception run back for a TD.

  11. I spent most of the game wishing I’d bet $25 at the beginning of the season that the first two touchdowns would be scored by a player with the first name Pierre.  I’d be changing my retirement plans right now.

    • Halfway through I revise my comment, so read past the break to read my fixing of my error…

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      p>What were the odds that the Saints made the Super Bowl?  Surely better than 20:1, right?  Let’s even say 20:1.  This site claims in preseason, Saints 20:1 to win 2010 SB.  Surely 20:1 to win in the preseason means the odds to appear are better than 20:1, but we’ll use it anyway.

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      p>Now, given that Pierre Thomas may well be the only guy who could possibly score TDs in a Super Bowl (it’s unlikely to be Pierre Woods OLB), we’ll assume that’s true.  Thomas scored 8 TDs in 2009, and 12 TDs in 2008.

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      p>So, what are the odds that Thomas scores two TDs in a Super Bowl (given that SBs tend to be high scoring)?  Let’s say 30:1, which is really, really too low.  I’d bet it’s more, considering that he did it twice in 2009 and four times in 2008 (29:6, or close to 5:1).  Sure, at preseason there’s a nonzero chance that he doesn’t play in the SB due to injury or other reason, but that’s pretty low too.

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      p>So, really conservative odds are (20:1 x 30:1) = 600:1.  $25 on that bet pays $15,000, minus a vig.  A nice take to be sure, but not enough to change retirement plans.

      <

      p>

      <

      p>BUT WAIT!

      <

      p>

      <

      p>Having re-read, you wrote “first two TDs” and I remembered that Garcon’s first name is Pierre.  This makes it much trickier.

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      p>For one thing, there are three ways to do this: (1) Thomas scores first two TDs of game (against any opponent), (2) Garcon scores first two TDs of game (against any opponent), (3) they each score one of the first two TDs.

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      p>The odds of Thomas scoring 2 TDs is above, though that’s not the first two TDs.  The odds of Garcon scoring the two TDs is likely lower: he only scored 4 TDs in 2009, never two in one game.  But, the Colts were more likely to make the SB: they entered the season 12:1 to win the SB, surely better odds than that to play in the SB.  Let’s say his odds of scoring two are (12:1 x 100:1) which I think is quite conservative, and would therefore be 1200:1.  In either case, what are the additional odds of either of them scoring the first two, given scoring two?  Dunno.  Maybe 10:1?  No worse than 50:1 I’d think; after all if you’re scoring 2 TDs, the odds aren’t terrible that they happen to be the first two.  Not very many TDs are scored in a game… if 7 TDs are scored, you’ve got a 7:1 x 6:1 chance (42:1) of scoring the first two given that you score two of the seven.  If you score more than 2 TDs, the odds are even better.  So, let’s use 50:1 knowing that it too is conservative.

      <

      p>Odds in August of Thomas scoring first two TDs in SB: conservative 30,000:1.
      Odds in Aguust of Garcon scoring first two TDs in SB: conservative 60,000:1.

      <

      p>There’s also the “mixer” — what are the odds that the Colts play the Saints?  Very conservatively, 12:1 x 20:1 = 240:1.  Now, what are the odds that each of these guys score but one (or more) TDs, given their team is playing in the game?  Thomas scored 20 TDs in 29 games in 2008, 2009.  Now, he might be hurt and not play, but the SB is typically high scoring.  Let’s say 2:1.  For Garcon, he’s nowhere near as much of a scorer.  Let’s say 10:1.  The odds that they both score at least one: 20:1.  But, they might not combine for the first two.  Let’s say there will be 7 TDs — then the odds are 7:1 x 6:1 if independent, which is 42:1.  Let’s call it 50:1.  So, the odds that its Saints v Colts, and Garcon and Thomas score 1+ TD each, and they are the first two: 240:1 x 2:1 x 10:1 x 50:1 = 240,000:1.

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      p>Given that these three events are roughly independent, the odds are 30,000:1 + 60,000:1 + 240,000:1 == 13:240,000 ~= 1:18,000.

      <

      p>So, bet $25, walk away with a $0.45 mil.  Remember, those were really conservative odds; I’d bet that it added a factor of 2 or more.  Methinks the range is more like somewhere between $100,000 and $450,000.  A nice take indeed, and certainly enough to alter retirement plans.

      • This is just the kind of odds analysis I was looking for.  You rock!

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        p>The week before the game, somebody took the percentage of males in the U.S. named Pierre and worked out the odds of two guys named Pierre even playing in the same Super Bowl at some very high number.  That’s what got me thinking, even before Garçon scored the first TD, but especially as Thomas got stuffed on the 2-yard line.

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        p>I’ve been expecting to have to live modestly in deferred retirement anyway.

  12. I watched a movie and read the paper, then read the recap online at 10:00 PM. I’ll watch it when it becomes the NFL championship game, and not just another spectacular where the well to do and stars can be seen and bag an event, while the fans who follow the participating teams all season can’t.

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