And if that ship sinks? What if Brown's win was an anomaly based on a lame Dem opponent and not as he describes it “an overwhelming people's movement — at one of the most important times in American politics”?
Indeed, we have a widespread MA GOP felt sense of a good future about to become great for them. As GOP nominee for commonwealth treasurer, Karyn Polito told the Herald, 'The whole pulse of the party is in the freshness of the new faces you see here today, young people energized. It’s very obvious to me the whole complexion of the party has changed.” Likewise, they quoted Delegate Adam D. Waitkunas as, “All the energy is behind Charlie.”
We can say they are overdue for getting to feel that positive. While like national Republicans, the locals have never had a problem bragging, running down the Dems, or making impossible predictions of victory, I have to wonder what the letdown will feel like if Baker comes up short.
Dumb claims
Unfortunately for the GOP, both Brown and Baker are playing the same weak hand, if their speeches are an indication. In Baker's, for example, he cites easily refutable misinformation and disinformation about current and past governors' budgets and taxes.
That is doubly unfortunate in his having been secretary of administration and finance for two Republican governors in a row. Not only does he know better about the deficits, surpluses and expenditures, he carries a lot of baggage here. For example, he was the leading adviser on the Big Dig finances; he likes to pretend now that no one listened to him. That won't fly. Likewise, bragging about Governors Weld and Cellucci balancing budgets by cutting taxes, he exposes himself as proponent of hidden taxes in terms of outrageous, unwise inflation for deferred infrastructure maintenance and building. We are still paying our way out of the Big Dig and tax-cut scams.
Then in his last job as head of Harvard Pilgrim, Baker led a turnaround…but at enormous cost to citizens. His health-care giant fired employees left and right and jacked up premiums non-stop for a decade. He should be on the voters' wanted poster for health-care profiteers. As CEO, he set the pace for unaffordable health care.
We have a lot of debates, a lot of campaigning, a lot of advertising and a lot of spin to come. Maybe it'll be like Tinkerbell and if enough people keep believing, Baker will fly. I predict not.
So back to the question, if our local elephants have vested all in Baker, how low will they fall if he fails, how hard their landing? Well, I wouldn't want to see it or hear the whining.
Cross-Post: This also appears at Marry in Massachusetts.
He has already fallen into the same hole the former Congressman from MA who were ‘surprisingly’ elected in the 94′ wave fell into. To have to be moderate enough to win in MA and conservative enough to get national GOP money, which is much more important for congressional and senate races than local money. Its an impossible tight rope, and just like Torkeldson and Blute, the name of Brown will fade into obscurity. Already the tea party is pissed he votes more with the ‘RINOs’ like Snow and less with them. Independents will likely turn back to the President once this banking reform gets through, which like health care, shows that the Democrats are on the side of the people while the Republicans are on the side of the plutocrats.
Where first elected in 1992 and then re-elected in 1994.
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p>So they won the same year Bill Clinton was winning his first term. That year, the GOP picked up 10 seats nationwide, what many later recognized as a harbinger of the coming GOP wave in 1994.
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p>But don’t let the facts get into the way of your narrative.
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p>Winning the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia, as well as Scott Brown winning in Massachusetts, all flukes.
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p>Nothing to see here. Carry on. Take a vacation. Go to the Cape to say, December. Nothing to worry about.
Well, as prognosticator, Brown is one of many GOP sorts calling a sweep of open seats this fall, leading to certain Presidential victory in 2012. I remain to be convinced the alleged backlash against health-care reform will be a catalyst for such. I lean more toward to big non-partisan pollster and pundit types who say that, particularly for 2012, the elephants have nothing.
You’ve conveniently ignored other elections post Nov 2008 which have gone the way of the Dems.
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p>Since Nov 2008, there have been six special elections to the US House:
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p>Scott Murphy, NY-20 March 31, 2009
Michael Quigley, IL-05 April 7, 2009
Judy Chu, CA-32 July 14, 2009
John Garamendi, CA-10 November 3, 2009
Bill Owens, NY-23 November 3, 2009
Ted Deutch, FL-19 April 13, 2010
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p>All of them are Democrats. The six wins resulted in a net +1 for the Democratic party.
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p>So look, it’s pretty clear that the Democrats have overperformed in Virginia over the past 8ish years (two govs, two Dem senators, a 6-5 advantage in the House, and their ’08 EVs) as compared to Virginia in the 1990s, which was decidedly scarlet red. That pendulum has swung back a bit, but NOVA continues to expand in population, bluing the state. Long term prospects: advantage Democrats.
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p>New Jersey: blue politics. Not dramatically blue: the House delegation is 6-5, for example. I’ve yet to hear anyone on either side of the aisle mutter “as goes New Jersey, so goes the nation”.
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p>Massachusetts: I won’t rehash. I’d also take the Democratic candidate for senate 2012 with 2:1 odds in your favor, right now.
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p>
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p>So if you want to use statewide elections of three states which don’t actually behave like most states as an indicator, be my guest. I know, it feels good to win after getting crushed in 2006 and 2008. Savor the few victories you’ve gotten. But lose the smugness. You simply haven’t earned it.
I really didn’t see those “young people” Polito spoke of.