via MassBeacon (a terrific site, btw — visit often): New Rasmussen poll puts the race this way:
- Patrick 35%
- Baker 27%
- Cahill 23%
… and Patrick's approval rating has risen from 39% to 46% — in a month. Whoah — not numbers to be thrilled about, but that change is pretty remarkable; remember that Rasmussen usually skews a few points to the R side.
Now that the realistic alternatives to Patrick are somewhat known to the public, and that he's entered the political fray swinging, Patrick may be shoring up his base and winning back a few persuadables. He's being helped by the maladroit opportunism of Baker (“nat'l health care was bad, real bad”), and the incompetence of Cahill. So far.
Patrick has banked some signature accomplishments in his tenure; he's genuinely taken on the Big Dig Culture and retains his independence; he's a good campaigner; and the field is surprisingly weak. If Patrick were a stock, I'd buy.
This is good news for Deval especially considering that it’s from Rasmussen…and if you think this will really remain a three-man race.
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p>If you’re as suspicious of the viability of third-party candidates in this state as I am, I’d say that 35% is not where an incumbent wants to be at this stage.
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p>Nothing on Patrick v. Ross. Christy Mihos appears to be toast.
That’s significant news, what about 5 or 6%? Wasn’t he in the 30’s in the last poll.
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p>Baker went from 32% to 27%. That’s going to have to worry the folks in his campaign. We’ll see how he responds to the drop.
You’ll have to forgive me for the harsh title.
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p>My mind has just been BLOWN again, looking at all of the empty buildings as I took a short drive to do some errands. You could say that witnessing the dismemberment of all that has been built since the 1780’s gets my goat.
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p>And Baker really is a dirty dog. He’s a rich CEO type, from a health insurance company, who basically wants money made by denying sick people care.
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p>Watch these people with medical problems die becasue they cannot get insurance for care, and tell me that it is moral.
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p>Patrick’s refusal to allow rate hikes is the right thing to do. And I’d be very suprised if he loses in court. Patrick’s stand on this and for this gets him support, and I say good.
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p>Cahill’s campaign is just a temper tantrum, stamping his feet any not being for “them high and fancy”, but proposing nothing that will solve problems. Something of a higher caliber that “nanny-nanny-boo-boo” ought to be considered in a state governor’s race.
is how far right is Baker willing to go. Cahill seems to have gained ground going nutty on health care reform. Does Baker sell his soul and go Tea Party on us for votes?
It seems that since Patrick has become energized, and actively involved in the race for governor, Baker has been pulled back. I’ll be interested to see other polls besides Rasmussen.
Isn’t he?
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p>http://www.intrade.com/jsp/int…
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p>(No volume in this race yet that I can see. Bid/Asked is 34/60.)
Patrick was steady, Baker dropped and Cahill gained.
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p>I guess I’m tone deaf, I felt the recent Baker / Cahill sparring was a draw. But Cahill apparently won on points.
Baker should have won the sparring. A draw is a loss for him and a win for Cahill.
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p>Cahill’s ability to stay in view without looking like a fool will win him points. Mihos–largely absent, but with bad news about not paying bills–might be closer to what folks thought would happen to Cahill.
Patrick has to be happy about this, obviously, but I’ll wait for more evidence before concluding, as Frank Phillips does in the Globe today, that Patrick is recovering.
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p>First of all, it is possible that Patrick got a small favorability bounce in this poll from Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents due to President Obama’s stop in Massachusetts to discuss the flooding along with Patrick. While Patrick will definitely take it, it may be fleeting.
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p>Second, even as poll respondents had a somewhat more optimistic view of the economy and give Patrick better approval ratings, his re-elect numbers remained at an anemic 35%. If this was a two-way race, I’m not sure he’d have a path to victory.
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p>I’m not trying to be a party pooper, but I’ll remain skeptical that Patrick is really recovering pending further evidence. Clearly he has a lot of work to do, and it’s always difficult to change the perception of yourself as damaged goods (though the robust fundraising helps).
is if Baker and Cahill stay above 20 points… thereby keeping both in the campaign as viable candidates for as long as possible.
What I take from this is that most voters, like me, are sick of this Governor but terrified at the alternatives. What a sad state for MA to be in. At this rate I’ll likely be a Stein voter, and I suspect I’m not the only one.
With three candidates (plus Ross, Stein, et al), one can spin it anyway he or she likes.
The anti-Deval vote is the lion’s share of the electorate, and he’s getting on the fact that it’s almost evenly split right now.
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p>I still say Cahill implodes before Oct. 30th.
I think Governor Patrick has played the health insurance premium increase issue exactly right. While the GOP is repeating yesterday’s (or last year’s, or last decade’s) bumper-stickers against taxes, Governor Patrick has deftly shifted the conversation to increased health insurance premiums.
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p>Which hurts small business more, a miniscule increase in sales taxes or the enormous increases in health insurance premiums Charlie Baker’s friends tried to push through? What hurts regular middle-class voters more, a few pennies on each discretionary purchase or thousands of dollars a year in increases for vitally necessary health insurance?
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p>Who’s demonstrating more effective leadership, Charlie Baker whining about people gaming the insurance system (itself hilarious because the fundamental premise of that system is gaming those same consumers) or Deval Patrick saying a loud “NO” to the most recent round of health insurance premium increases?
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p>I think Deval Patrick is the on the right side of a winning wedge issue, I think he’s playing it well, and I think this is just the right time for it.
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p>This is particularly devastating to Charlie Baker, Governor Patrick’s closest competitor.
Only an idiot would come out in favor of higher health insurance premiums right now. I don’t think Deval is an idiot, I just think that he’s pushed away many of his allies and very many casual voters. Deval’s best hope is that Baker and Cahill keep moving away from the electorate.
but the other half is to (a) move forward on policy he campaigned on 3.5 years ago as much as he can in the next few months, while (b) turning back to campaign-Deval, the energetic, charismatic, dynamic man that he is.
Where is Jill Stein? Where is Christy Mihos? Grace Ross? Last I heard they were running too.
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p>I don’t care if they typically poll at single digit percentages. They add fresh ideas into the campaign, and they need to be respected as the legal, legitimate candidates that they are. The media virtual blackout on these candidates simply perpetuates their “curse” of being seen as marginal or spoiler candidates. What is a democracy without its so-called fringe?
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p>I’m fed up with this narrowing of my — our — perception of choices as voters by these “respected” polling outfits. We have one of the most diverse societies, one of the most developed economies in the world. But our political landscape? As if it takes one iota of effort for the pollsters to include these other candidates. Please.
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p>I’m disgusted by the media’s ignorance of the true breadth of our electoral politics. What a joke.
Both Ross and Mihos have to win their respective primaries to play in November. As for Stein, yeah, she should be in the mix of questions.
I’ll vote for whoever Rasmussen tells me to vote for. If we’re picking winners, why not just go all the way and call it a day? Deval Patrick, polling at 35% in a Rasmussen poll in April… that should count as winning. And if we held our elections this way, it would save us hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars! The taxpayers need a break. It’s a horrible recession, after all. Just have private companies do some polling, and voila!
At some point, when the race tightens in September-October, don’t be surprised if Baker and Cahill cut a deal and one drops out of the race, endorsing the other. At that point, your incessant carping and politically foolish demands will have driven Patrick so far to the left that the middle will just implode on him and he’ll be soundly defeated for re-election.
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p>If the governor cannot point to tax revenues and jobs increasing over the next four months, he’s done. Done!
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p>So remember that as your political drivel drives him so far from the middle that he cannot recapture the bulk of that moderate vote come November.
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p>You should call yourselves the “Blue Mass Group Tea Party” for all the good you’re doing state Dems this election cycle.