Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Special Election Open Thread – Predictions WINNER ANNOUNCED

By

Predictions?

NBM: Lida Harkins? Peter Smulowitz?

MSE: Michael ALbano?  Dennis Benzan?  Sal DiDomenico? Tim Flaherty?  Dan Hill? Denise Simmons?

For NBM, let us do percentages.

For MSE, try picking the order of finish.

Also, let us know your plans…

Please share widely!
fb-share-icon
Tweet
0

Comments

  1. I’m trying to get a little interwst in this thread.  So I have decided to offer a prize!  If you have an appropriate event or cause, I will feature it in the “renowned” Democratic Dispatch.  Who ever has the best response is the winner.  Points for each race, and for style.  I’m the sole judge.

  5. MSE

    <

    p>1. DiDomineco (28)
    2. Flaherty (23)
    3. Simmons(19)
    4. Benzan(13)
    5. Albano (10)
    6. Hill (7)

    <

    p>Whomever wins will enter the State Senate in Mid May amongst a bruising budget battle which will see local aid cut to cities and towns, including the cities and towns that represent the district.  The winner and new senator will be unable to do anything about it, but will share some of the responsibility of the budget.

    <

    p>This would put Denise and others, but particularly Denise, in a good position to run again, build on the momentum and name recognition from this race.  An added benefit would be that both Sal and Tim have relied heavily on financing from unions and other special interest groups (lawyers for Tim).  Since MA political fundraising limits are based on a calendar year, it will be hard for them to match their fund raising levels from this race in November as the same donors will not be available to them.

    <

    p>All in all, this sets up well for the runners up in November.

    <

    p>One potential thorn in Denise’s side could be Marjorie Decker who withdrew this time, but could come back into the race in the fall.  She would have the potential backing of her union supporters and could have a formidable warchest from which to build a strong campaign.

    <

    p>Sets up as a great election where today’s winner takes the seat and, at the same time, has a large target placed on their back for the fall.

    <

    p>NBM

    <

    p>1. Harkins (56)
    2. Smulowitz (44)

  6. I wouldn’t want to wager a thing on these predictions, but they are fun to do anyway.

    <

    p>NBM:
    Smulowitz 52
    Harkins 48

    <

    p>Harkins has a huge institutional advantage, but Smulowitz is young, smart, and determined. Most people in the state seem to want some new blood in the State House, so her long record and familiarity may actually be working against her.

    <

    p>MSE:
    1. DiDomenico 31
    2. Flaherty 30
    3. Albano 17
    4. Simmons 10
    5. Benzan 8
    6. Hill 3

    <

    p>I don’t know, I almost think it’s a tossup for 1 and 2. DiDomenico has the overall district advantage but maybe Flaherty has been gaining.

  8. MSE:

    <

    p>DiDomenico (33%)
    Flaherty (26%)
    Simmons (22%)
    Albano (12%)
    Benzan (6%)
    Hill (1%)

    <

    p>NBM:

    <

    p>Smulowitz (70%)
    Harkins (30%)

    <

    p>DiDomenico’s support is solid in the Northern part of the district. If you go past Everett to the north its DiDomenico  signs everywhere.

    <

    p>I think Flaherty’s support it soft. A lot of people who would prefer to vote for the true progressives ( Albano and Simmons ) are voting for him just on the perception that he’s the only Cambridge candidate who can win.

    <

    p>That whole ‘triple eagle’ spiel rubs a lot of us the wrong way. But the perception is that he’s the only one from the southern half of the district who can win.

    <

    p>I’ve been hearing more about this theory that if DiDomenico wins, that the #2 and #3 finishers will be in a strong position to challenge in November. This will benefit Simmons as it will get people who are thinking of jumping to Flaherty to stick with Flaherty.

    <

    p>Flaherty is the machine candidate. His indicted former speaker and casino lobbyist father is a big part of his campaign and a big part of his financing. A win for Flaherty is a win for the lobbyists and for the back room insider dealings that are shoving a casino bill down our throats without so much as a public debate.

    <

    p>I think Smulowitz will win big in NBM. Harkins is the insider machine candidate there. More than 50% of her funding is lobbyists ( esp. for casions and tobacco – that’s right – tobacco ). Today’s big news is the lack of debate on the casino bill. Its going to hurt her. Moderates in NBM are voting for Ross, liberals going hard for Smuly. Where does that leave Harkins? In the dog house.

    • 1) Sal is more of a machine candidate, since he has about half the labor support, and supports DeLeo’s casino+slots, whereas Flaherty supports casinos only.  He is the ultimate insider, and even bragged about it in the debate

      <

      p>2) No way is Simmons getting more votes than Albano.  She has no support outside the People’s Republic of Cambridge, as should be expected.

      <

      p>3) It’s easy to think that this is a progressive activists’ race, but really, seniors and other less progressive people will be voting as well.  And there will probably be quite a few Irish guys from BC

      <

      p>4) From what I’ve been hearing, Everett is relatively low, and Cambridge and Boston are high-this helps Flaherty

      • There is the big statewide machine, and the little Everett machine. For sure DiDomenico has the support of all the political people in Everett. They haven’t had a senator from there for 30 years so they are all behind him. But how small does a machine have to get before its genuine grass roots? I’d say DiDomenico is on that line. Each of those local Everett city councillors and union poeople represent a constituency of like 100 people.

        <

        p>Flaherty represents atatewide political interests. He’s the favored candidate of state level lobbyists PAC’s and unions.

        <

        p>I agree that Cambridge is more politically active than Everett and I’m sure turnout there is higher per capita than the rest of the district. But Cambridge is just 20% of the electorage, and its being divided three ways. The rest of the district’s turnout may be relatively low – but its coming out for DiDomenico. The question up north is not “who are you voting for?”, but “are you voting?” because 9 of 10 people up there only know about DiDomenico. Saugus is a very long way from Cambridge. They don’t know and could care less about Flaherty or Simmons.

        <

        p>If the seniors turn out, and they indeed skew right, they are going for DiDomenico.

  9. I love that everyone gets worked up about signs. So many people see yard signs as a symbol of support but, let’s face it, they’re little more than a representation of how much money the campaign spent on . . . wait for it . . . signs! Signs keep supporters happy and help with name ID, but they are not a real field strategy.

    <

    p>If you’re a highly targeted campaign, if you have a tight margin, if you think turnout will already be high, if you’d rather that turnout stayed low – there are a million scenarios in which a campaign should not waste money, time, or volunteer efforts on signs. Most importantly, the proliferation of lawn signs tells you nothing about what’s happening on election day.

  13. He wasn’t my pick in the primary, but he ran a good race and I sure hope he can beat Ross.

    • it was always going to be…

      <

      p>you should strongly consider volunteering at least a few hours for Smulowitz. If I could drive an hour each way to get there to help him on two different days, I think someone in the district who was a Lida supporter but wants to ensure a strong democrat wins can at least volunteer for those two hours I was driving there and back to help đŸ™‚

Archives