Following on johnk’s post about the generally positive economic news ’round these parts, here is an important detail from the Gov’s office (press release, no link):
The Massachusetts economy added 19,100 jobs in April, the single largest monthly gain in 17 years. The labor force grew for the fourth consecutive month, as construction, scientific, financial and several other sectors reported significant job gains.
That’s worth repeating: “the single largest monthly gain in 17 years.”
And meanwhile, the hilarity rolls along from Team Baker:
“Deval Patrick and Tim Murray must be the only guys in the state who believe Massachusetts isn’t failing under the weight of their disastrous spending and tax increases and lack of sound fiscal management.”
Riiiiight … the only guys, other than the 19,100 people who got new jobs just last month; the three ratings agencies who unanimously praised Patrick’s sound fiscal management (directly contradicting Baker); the business owners who support relief from skyrocketing health insurance premiums; and I could go on and on.
What’s telling, I think, is the increasingly shrill, desperate rhetoric coming from Team Baker. (“The only guys in the state”? Please. That’s just silly.) As the economic news slowly gets better and better, Baker’s chances get worse and worse. It’s always awkward to run against an improving economy, yet that is exactly the hole that Baker seems to be willingly digging for himself. Wouldn’t be my strategy, but hey, I’m not a highly-paid political consultant who has managed statewide campaigns before.
ENOUGH, ENOUGH, I SAY. SING IT BAWRBRA AND DAWNNA:
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…and I want it to STOP! Charlie Baker save us!!!!
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p>Moody’s
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p>Fitch
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p>Standard & Poor’s
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p>Globe quoting Moody’s Economy.com
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p>Globe quoting US Census
Baker doesn’t want to talk about the facts about jobs or anything else.
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p>He doesn’t want to talk about his past deeds at the Big Dig, Harvard Pilgrim, or anywhere else, good, bad, or indifferent.
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p>Patrick has been fighting the health insurance companies to keep premiums down. THAT is big $$$$$$ for businesses and individuals.
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p>Getting about 20,000 jobs last month is impressive. Especially in a recession, and with a higher cost of living that some other states.
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p>Patrick is starting to deliver the goods. At this time, a race to be the governor of Massachusetts is about economics only. All candidates are moderately liberal on social issues, as is the consensus in the state.
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p>Patrick and his team must make sure that the public hears about what’s going on with jobs and health insurance premiums CONSTANTLY.
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p>Repetition and volume of the true message, that Patrick gets JOBS and CUTS INSURANCE BILLS, can beat Baker and his message of “tax cuts,” which lacks believability with many people at this point.
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p>As for, “had enough?” that comment is based on POSITION not POLICY. Any challenger could and probably does say that, regardless of what’s really going on. This is part of typical campaigning.
BOSTON – Thursday, May 20, 2010 – The Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development reported today that the state unemployment rate declined from 9.3 percent in March to 9.2 percent in April. The Massachusetts economy added 19,100 jobs in April, the single largest monthly gain in 17 years. The labor force grew for the fourth consecutive month, as construction, scientific, financial and several other sectors reported significant job gains. The following is a statement from Governor Deval Patrick on last month’s jobs figures:
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p>”With 19,000 new jobs in April, Massachusetts had the single biggest monthly gain in 17 years. We are on the mend and on the move. Since day one, we have focused on investing in the projects and industries that put people to work right now and make the Commonwealth stronger for the long-term. The significant gains we’re seeing in the construction, scientific, financial and manufacturing sectors show that our strategy is working. Still, I understand that positive statistics mean little to the person who is out of work and looking for a job. For them and for our future, we will keep pushing.”
that’s what we are talking about here. Are we on the right path. Sure looks that way.
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p>It makes those who argue that we are going in the wrong direction look completely foolish, the job gains are right in front of their face. I wonder what Baker is going to say in town today.
I worry that the Gov’s political team continues to be ineffective in getting the good news out to the public. The people I talk with can’t name any accomplishments of the Patrick administration. Where is the PR offensive?
Needs to come from you. From us. So when the people you talk with say they can’t name anything the Gov has done, respectfully but firmly correct them. Rather than waiting for someone to drop a million dollar ad buy, we all need to take some responsibility for talking to friends and neighbors. That worked really well in 06, and it will work this year too.
http://www.mass.gov/?pageID=go…
The percentage of the working age population that’s working only went up by 0.07%, essentially flat, because the population’s somehow growing too. That’s actually down from the previous month’s increase, which was 0.20%.
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p>And probably a third or more of the 6,400 added jobs were short-term census jobs.
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p>Hmmm…
Over 16,500 of the newly-created jobs in April were in the private sector – only a little over 2,000 were in the Federal Government, and there was no growth in state government jobs in April.
Look for yourself: http://lmi2.detma.org/lmi/lmi_…
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p>There were a fair number of layoffs offsetting the new jobs. And, as you’ve confirmed, about 1/3 of the net job gain was temporary census jobs.
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p>Do you agree with me that, generally speaking, net job creation is most important?
You can’t state that net jobs are the important number, then say that a 1/3 of NET jobs were census.
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p>If census/fed jobs are only 12% of ALL jobs created (2000 out of 16500), they are ALSO only 12% of NET jobs created too.
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p>You can’t just shift all 2000 fed jobs into the net jobs number like that, it’s completely dishonest. God, please understand basic math and statistics before you post. Before you hurt yourself.
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p>~I~ suck at math and statistics and I know you’re full of shit. Yeesh.
I’m good enough at math to have convinced an engineering school to hand me a diploma… but this ain’t that complex, no eigenvectors or partial differentials needed.
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p>Just think: if the 2000 census jobs hadn’t happened, what would have happened to the net jobs number? Would net jobs have dropped by 2000, or 12% of 2000? The former, of course.
The next shoe is about to drop… the commercial real estate bubble is collapsing. Then comes the sovereign debt crisis spreading outward from Greece, and finally the Federal Reserve bubble, which will burst when foreign nations and investors think the music is about to stop and start to panic.
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p>The problem with running on false optimism is that when the next big downward lurch comes the only explanation out there will be the Republicans’ nonsense that it was caused by deficit spending – which confuses a symptom for the disease. This economic crisis is ultimately caused by an economy which in Kucinich’s words has become a giant funnel for sucking wealth upward, leaving not enough at the base for people to be able to support it with their spending. Any approach which does not have social justice at its center won’t work – and is unworthy of a Democrat.
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p>The problem in Greece, while quite ominous, hasn’t yet had effects beyond other Euro-debtor countries (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain). That said, I don’t think it is fair to say that the crisis is “spreading out from Greece” today. What makes you say otherwise?
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p>I don’t even know what the “Federal Reserve bubble” is supposed to refer to. American national debt? Interest rates have been steady or falling. Whither the panicky investors?
Aussie dollar takes a dive
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p>NZ dollar dives on rising Euro zone worries
Let’s say you’re right (there is definitely some blowback already from the Euro countries in serious debt; and the commercial real estate bubble idea has been kicking around a while).
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p>How, exactly, is this under Patrick’s control? These are both heavily affected by international/federal policies, so yes, they could affect economic recovery across the nation, but we will will be in a far better position than the rest of the states, so many of which are like, in dire fiscal crisis.
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p>However, I think it’s possible that with the increase in consumer confidence, and jobs/business expansion, the “real estate bubble” might slowly deflate a little rather than totally pop, as more businesses will be renting/leasing/buying new office/commercial/industrial space as things roll along. If demand for commercial real estate goes up, it might bridge the gap that exists now.
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p>Also, if we can get our house in order (yes, we are deficit spending now to stimulate the economy, but historically, Democrats have been far more responsible with budgets and I think we will in the next three years see deficits narrow or disappear – especially if we wind down these damned unending wars) here in the US we could weather out any international problems with individual countries which have spent too far down on the credit card.
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p>Honestly, the Eurozone countries ought to put their foot down and have some rules on how far countries can leverage their damn budgets. With a shared money system comes shared responsibility.