Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Patrick Continues To Climb In Newest Gubernatorial Poll

By

A poll released this morning by Rassmussen a right leaning polling agency has put Deval Patrick at 45 percent! Charlie Baker had 31 percent and after the ad assault by the RGA Tim Cahill has dropped to a shaky 14 percent. This shows that the Democratic Organization is doing its job in the State and reaching out to voters. This is what Rassmussen spun about the poll.

Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick has gained ground over the past month and now earns 45% of the vote in his bid for reelection against Republican Charlie Baker and independent Tim Cahill. That’s a 10-point jump from a month ago and the Democratic incumbent’s best showing in surveys stretching back to June of last year.

If we keep moving forward and show the voters of Massachusetts what the Democratic Corner Office and Legislature has done we will cruise to victory in November. This old tricks of the State GOP will stand no more.

Please share widely!
fb-share-icon
Tweet
0

Comments

  1. DatePatrickBakerCahillother
    5-124531231
    4-635271426
    Change+10+4-9-25

    Takeaways:

    • Cahill is feeling the effects of the initial RGA attack.  I expect these numbers will rebound as the battle is joined from the other side, but in the long run this is a microcosm of the effect of Tim’s lack of money.  A third-party candidacy is simply not viable for six months with these numbers.
    • Other/undecided plummeted from one poll to the other.  One reason may be Mihos supporters who refused to commit in April, but the idea that only 99% of the voters in this race are committed is…surprising.
    • Deval’s numbers improved, but he’s still at a -2% performance approval rating and under 50%.  
    • If there’s ever a reminder that polls are snapshots, not predictors, this is it.  

    • Frankly, Tim Cahill in the race helps Patrick substantially.  That the RGA just spent big money attacking Cahill means they didn’t spend it attacking Patrick.

      <

      p>BTW — you have your Cahill numbers backwards in your otherwise handy-dandy chart.

    • As stomv noted, you’ve flipped the Cahill numbers, and as a result the undecideds are also incorrect.  Today’s poll has undecided at 10%.

        • Sorry about that…lost track amidst all the td tags.

          <

          p>Seems like insofar as Cahill is losing support, it’s going as much to Deval as Baker, which probably isn’t what the RGA wanted.  However, those would be voters rather easy to pick off.  

          • Cahill lost 9 — it seems to be breaking more to DP than CB.  In April, DP < CB + TH.  Now, DP = CB + TC.

            <

            p>It would seem that even if 100% of the remaining TC support went to CB that DP would be in decent shape.  Still, I think that Governor Patrick does best as the IND and GOP throw bombs at each other and the Governor keeps announcing more jobs, better infrastructure, and the like.  My sense is that the lower the overall turnout, the better off Governor Patrick will be, depending on union rank-and-file behavior.

            • Cahill lost nine, undecided five.  That makes it hard to see who’s going where.  Patrick is benefiting from the current spatting, especially as it can only lower Baker’s favorables, which is good for Deval’s long game.  However, I think the worst thing for Deval is for Cahill to be sidelined early on; the Treasurer could pick up a couple of defenders over the next couple of months.  

    • Jill Stein will be on the ballot in November, giving voters the choice of someone who stands for single-payer health care, fair taxes, an end to corporate welfare in the commonwealth, and sustainable economic development (as opposed to, say, casinos).

      <

      p>A poll that doesn’t include Stein isn’t worth the time of day.  Her 3% of the vote in the ’02 governor’s race and her 18% in the ’06 secretary’s race can not be taken lightly.

      <

      p>Rasmussen’s polls are misleading, and anyone who thinks Stein will not be a factor in this election is very much mistaken.

      • Jill Stein … sustainable economic development

        <

        p>Yup!

        <

        p>

        A poll that doesn’t include Stein isn’t worth the time of day.  Her 3% of the vote in the ’02 governor’s race and her 18% in the ’06 secretary’s race can not be taken lightly.

        <

        p>Sure it can.  JS got 3.5% in 02.  GR got 2.0% in 06.  Figure JS will get 3.5% again this year.  So what?  Who’s it going to come from?  A few from DP, a few from “blank”, a few from “otherwise woulda stayed home”.

        <

        p>There’s absolutely no reason to think that JS is going to get more than 3.5%.  In fact, Tim Cahill may suck away some of the Jill Stein vote, solely because he too is neither Democrat nor Republican.

        <

        p>

        <

        p>To put it another way, based on her 2002 candidacy, how, pray tell, will Jill Stein factor in this race?

  2. What’s the saturation on the RGA ads?  The only TV I’ve been able to watch are the NBA/NHL playoffs and some baseball in the background while plotting my various schemes.  I can’t say as I’ve seen any of the ads on the TV.  Are they getting any play beyond internet chatter?

    • I listen to about 20 minutes of WBZ radio in the morning and hear an ad just about every day.

      • They’re awful. If I wanted to hear some angry blowhard yelling about a non-Republican, I’d listen to Dennis and Callahan. The RGA’s ads are even more grating than “1-877-KARS-4-KIDS”.  

    • They directly take on Cahill and indirectly swipe Patrick.  (“Massachusetts has already lost four years…”).  As usual, Republicans attack early and often.  While I of course agree with Democratic positions I was turned off by GOP m.o. even before I chose a party.  Last years gov race in VA was a notable exception, but part of the reason I’m a Democrat is due to GOP tendency to go negative.

      • Seems like a gamble for the RGA, though.  I guess they are hoping that they can turn Cahill into an also-ran as early as possible so they can take on Patrick more or less one-on-one.

        <

        p>Still they cover this in campaigning 101 — in a three way race, when candidate A attacks candidate B, candidate C comes away the winner.  It’s not rocket science.

        • 1) Too early to celebrate Deval, but he is improving

          <

          p>It is again incredibly telling that in a solidly Democratic state of ours the Governor is still losing the election in the sense that the majority of people are voting for someone else. I do have to give him credit for coming back on message and really doing his job properly, the tone deafness to political perceptions and public opinion that his first two and a half years exhibited has finally ended, as has the uneasy alliance with the top dogs in the leg. Deval the Governor is starting to sound like Deval the candidate again, this old Deval supporter is even starting to feel hopeful again. Let us hope his actions continue to match his rhetoric and he can rebound. When he acts like a progressive his numbers go up, let us hope he has learned that lesson.

          <

          p>2) Cahill already slipping

          <

          p>He has made the mistake of spending most of his money early, and he has alienated a lot of his potential supporters by drifting to the right. With these investigations coming up and less money coming his numbers will likely continue a decline.

          <

          p>3) Baker incompetent

          <

          p>Baker just does not know how to run a campaign. No move he has made has seemed to work or pay off. An LG pick that alienated his base without winning over any swing voters, lame ads, consistently negative ad and rhetoric, no positive name recognition boosting advertisements yet, and tacking to the middle during the primary and taking to the right during the campaign-the exact opposite of what you want to do.

          <

          p>Things are looking good for Deval so for, he should be worried though if Cahill has to drop out and Baker hires competent staff-both seem unlikely at this juncture.

          • It is again incredibly telling that in a solidly Democratic state of ours the Governor is still losing the election in the sense that the majority of people are voting for someone else.

            <

            p>You mean unlike 1990?  1994?  1998?  Or like 2002?  It turns out that our solidly Democratic state has a deep and consistent history of voting for someone else.

            <

            p>In that sense, “it” isn’t telling at all.

            • Since in those years we had fairly lackluster candidates that got crushed by their Republican competition and Patrick was the most recent governor to have a landslide since Dukakis in 1986, who went up against a much weaker opponent btw. It is telling that someone who had almost 60% of MA behind him started off this year with 60% against him. He still has a long way to climb and he has moved me from lean Green back to the undecided column. Here is hoping he keeps his mojo intact and builds on these recent successes.  

  4.  herself…..

    <

    p>

    Rasmussen in its most recent poll reported the following results in this year’s gubernatorial race:
    In a four way race with Grace Ross as the Democratic nominee: Charlie Baker (R) 32%; Grace Ross (D) 27%; Tim Cahill (I) 16%; Not sure 25%. Grace Ross had 24% favorable and 27% unfavorable with 49% of respondents still unsure.

    “We are very gratified by the showing in the Rasmussen poll. Nor are we surprised by the 27% showing in a three-way. And that is with 49% not having formed an opinion of my candidacy – lots of room to grow! This was
    reflected in the incredibly favorable response when we were out collecting signatures across the political spectrum. There is huge potential on the ground among unorganized voters,” Grace Ross responded today.

    “In addition, the ceiling among voters created by unfavorable percentages are critically important in a race. We are worried about Patrick’s 47% unfavorables and we think other Democrats should be worried too. We really need to fight for the enactment of strong legislation to benefit the regular people of Massachusetts going into this November election that demonstrates that the Democratic party can again be about our lives not just big money.”

    <

    p>What say poll readers & analyzers?

      • Pledged to vote for the Governor in the primary and general as a matter of fact.

        <

        p>I do count myself as Grace’s long time friend and colleague in various social, economic and racial justice campaigns. I did sign her nomination papers and do hope she gets enough  signatures to qualify for the ballot, and gets the 15% in the convention.  

    • A Ross challenge is a good thing in my view, it keeps Deval on his toes and allows his campaign to get seasoned experience, it should also suck away a lot of the energy and momentum that might go to Jill Stein in the general. A lot of her supporters will be holding out until after the Democratic primary. Baker getting a pass from the GOP has made him a weaker, not a better candidate. Ditto Deval if Ross doesn’t get on.  

Archives