With just five weeks to the election, Republican Charles D. Baker has pulled even with Governor Deval Patrick in a gubernatorial race shaped by anti-incumbent sentiment and unusually high excitement among Republican voters, according to a new Boston Globe poll.
The poll results also suggest that independent Timothy P. Cahill is pulling voters equally from Baker and Patrick, raising questions about the conventional political thinking that his candidacy is undercutting Baker’s chance to defeat the governor in the Nov. 2 election.
Folks need to volunteer, donate, and work for the best, not just hope for it, to coin a phrase, or Charlie Baker, after running perhaps the worst political campaign since, well, Kerry Healey, might just be the next Governor of the Commonwealth.
UPDATE (by David): As an indication of how difficult it is to sample voters and to gauge “likely voters” correctly, a poll taken nearly simultaneously with the Globe poll shows Patrick maintaining roughly the same lead we’ve seen for months. A Western New England College poll taken Sept. 19-23 (the Globe poll was taken Sept. 17-22) shows Patrick leading Baker 39%-33%, with Cahill at 16%, Stein at 3%, and 9% undecided or refused to answer. (The Globe’s undecided number was much higher, at 14%.)
Which raises an interesting question: which poll is “right”? Has Baker really closed the gap that most polling has said continues to exist? Or is the Globe poll off by a few points, and is the WNEC poll the more accurate reflection of where the electorate is right now?
It’s impossible to know for sure. So the best thing to do is follow Bob’s excellent advice.
progressiveman says
…did some yesterday…will do another two hours today after the Pats game. I am not going to stand still.
tudor586 says
One of the downsides of constant polling is that margins of error guarantee fluctuations that do not reflect underlying movement in the race. The margin of error in the Globe poll actually brings it into synch with other polls. Nate Silver is predicting a 4 point Patrick win, with Cahill finishing at 9%. That prediction is not inconsistent with the Globe poll when you factor in margin of error.
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p>There are a couple of interesting details in the poll’s findings. First, Patrick is seen as more likeable than Baker by a 2-1 margin. Patrick’s supporters are more definite in their preference. 39% have a negative view of the tea party–a much larger percentage than have a positive view. Baker is still not closing in on the 40% or so he would need to win. Taxes are not the big issue on people’s minds–jobs and the economy are. And Cahill is pulling from both candidates equally, so Baker’s strategy cannot consist of raiding Cahill’s supporters.
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p>Of course, the biggest hurdle Democrats face is the enthusiasm gap. Our strategy needs to focus on ginning up our base as much as reaching the undecides.
doug-rubin says
Today’s poll in the Boston Globe, showing Governor Patrick with a 1 point lead over Charlie Baker, is exactly what our campaign needs to win on November 2nd.
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p>Here’s why.
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p>Many of us who care about creating good jobs, investing in public education, providing affordable health care, and supporting clean energy say we learned our lesson from the Scott Brown race. We say we will never take the threat to these issues, and the values we share, for granted again. Yet there are some out there who still need a wake up call, a reminder, about what’s at stake in this election.
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p>Today’s Boston Globe poll provides that for us.
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p>The choice we face in this election is clear. Governor Patrick and Lt. Governor Murray have chosen to face this economic crisis with a balanced, responsible plan of budget cuts, new revenue, and serious reforms. This has allowed them to invest in what makes us great — job growth, education, health care and clean energy, while producing 4 straight balanced budgets. And we are seeing the results — no state is creating jobs faster than Massachusetts (65,000 new jobs this year), and we are first in the nation in education, health care, and clean energy efforts.
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p>Charlie Baker and Tim Cahill oppose the policies and decisions that have allowed Massachusetts to come out of the recession better than other states. They want to take us back, not move us forward.
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p>Today’s Globe poll makes it clear what we have been saying all along – the campaign for Governor is close, and will only be won if all of us get engaged and active now. While the poll results are different from three other public polls that were released this week, all of which show a larger lead for Governor Patrick, it does not mean we should dismiss the results of today’s Boston Globe poll.
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p>Instead, it means we need you to get engaged in this campaign today. That means joining us as an organizer, talking with your friends and family about the choice we face in this election, putting up a lawn sign, coming to a Friend Bank at one of our 25 campaign locations around the state, or making a financial donation to the campaign. It means committing today to take November 2nd off to help get our supporters out to vote.
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p>It means taking action now.
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p>If you do so, we will win on November 2nd, and keep Massachusetts moving forward.
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p>Thanks,
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p>Doug Rubin
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p>Senior Strategist, Deval Patrick Campaign
lfield1007 says
Doug Rubin’s original email had a link that has been lost in translation. Here is the URL: http://devalpatrick.com/get-in… Follow that URL to find a list of Canvasses and Friend Banks, and how to become an organizer.
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p>Two canvasses today not listed: Medford, meeting 1 pm at 80 George Street; Somerville, meeting 2 pm at the Mt. Vernon Restaurant, 14 Broadway.
david says
Here’s the right link: http://bmg.ma/bREUxr
amberpaw says
Of those who took a Democratic Ballot in the primary, more than 127,000 left Deval Patrick’s name blank. Since they are folks who voted in the primary, whoever these folks are, they are VERY likely voters.
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p>So recapturing as many of the 127,000+ likely voters who blanked Gov. Patrick is an important task. I don’t think there was any “exit polling” to find out why these voters “left the Governor blank.” These folks are real prospects, in the category a marketer would call “recent former customers” and I believe the “blanking voter” is a critical group to reclaim.
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p>Whether a poll to locate a group of these folks and “find out why” is worth doing is a Doug Rubin question. Our household currently includes two college students, and a friend of our son’s who is honorably discharged military, but unemployed, as well as our recently graduated son, as well as my husband and I.
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p>My husband and I voted for Deval Patrick, filled in the ballot for him. The veteran did not bother to vote; he feels none of the candidates were worth the effort. My daughter’s friend, who lost her apartment and is staying with us also could not be motivated to go back to where she is registered to vote. I don’t know why. I will offer her a ride in November, if she hasn’t moved her registration.
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p>My daughter did not fill in the blank for Deval Patrick because she feels he has abandoned public higher education in Massachusetts and she feels disappointed. My son left Deval Patrick blank to “send a message”. I will try and collect those four votes, but I don’t own those votes – they do.
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p>I wish I could say that most voters, even in our home, care about “the green economy”, or incremental reforms on Beacon Hill, or the rhetoric of hope. They don’t seem to care about those issues and successes. They seem to be more concerned about funding for the public university, college, and community college system, housing access for their age group, how horrible the required student health insurance is, and jobs jobs jobs for young people just starting out.
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p>Reclaiming those 127,000 blanks may well be the “make or break”, as well voter turnout among Democrats, many of whom are not currently feeling energized and hopeful. A guilt trip, or trying to shame them won’t get them out the door; actually, only hope based on currently believable plans and programs will get those voters out to vote.
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p>I will vote for Deval Patrick. I will do so not because I agree with all of his positions and programs; I don’t. I will do so not because I feel heard and valued; I don’t. I will vote for Deval Patrick because the Baker slash and burn program would make our current difficult household situation, and state situation, so much worse.
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p>None of the other four voters in this household are interested in Baker either, though. They told me he is just a phony rich guy who would help other rich guys get richer and does not care about them, at all.
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p>Just a survey of four potential, but not currently likely voters though all of them voted for Deval Patrick in 2006, they tell me. I wasn’t in the booth, and the disclaimer is that my communication skills are not perfect.
amberpaw says
He said that he wasn’t going to, but did because the other Gubernatorial candidates are SO bad, and he is very concerned with the way the State and country are going, he says he will always vote for the best candidate available even when he isn’t thrilled.
christopher says
…is how many blanked the Governor, but not other uncontested races. The Tsongas campaign also seems concerned about blanks and I would like to ask the same question about her. While I go ahead and vote for the only person in the race, I suspect that there are plenty of people who just don’t bother since blanks can’t win. This doesn’t mean they won’t vote for a candidate when they actually do have a choice to make.
yellowdogdem says
The same poll shows a horse race for Auditor too, with Suzanne Bump with only a small lead over Mary Connaughton:
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p>
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p>That’s not much different from the Suffolk poll that had Bump ahead by 2 points. It’s nice that Bump is ahead, but there’s obviously much work to do in the next 37 days.
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p>
swampyshanty says
This emphasizes the importance of getting out the Democratic vote and showing support for all the Democratic candidates. We can’t just assume that the races at the bottom of the ballot will go to the Democrat by default as they have in the past. The Globe story talked about the enthusiasm factor among Republicans and the relative lack of it among Democrats. We need to work for all the Democrats on the ballot. This race is not going to get much media attention and both of the candidates are relatively unknown.Bring a Bump sign to your next visibility.Install a Bump lawn sign at your house and a “Bump”-er sticker on your car.
somervilletom says
Today’s Globe piece offers an example of implicit media bias that I think needs to be exposed:
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p>
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p>The implicit assumptions here are that
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p>The truth is that Deval Patrick has handled the catastrophic near-collapse of our nation’s economy as well or better than any other governor in any other state. In fact, it is equally likely that a voter focus on the economy will be good for Deval Patrick — if the media will report the truth about how well Massachusetts is doing. In fact, is is equally likely that voters who focus on the economy will be repelled by the policies of the GOP, because the policies that Charlie Baker now advocate are the very policies that destroyed the economy — if the media will report the truth about those policies.
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p>The truth is that the recovery is happening faster in Massachusetts than in most other states. Look at the handsprings that Frank Phillips and Michael Levenson performed to crowbar these positive facts into their anti-Patrick viewpoint:
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p>So much for the “liberal media bias.”
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p>This entire piece is permeated with an implicit message that “Republicans are better for the economy than Democrats” — despite clear evidence that the contrary is true.
kbusch says
The truth may set you free but, by itself, it doesn’t tend to win elections.
The problem with such articles in the Globe is not that they misjudge the horse race. The problem is that they focus on the horse race to the exclusion of the content of the campaign.
kbusch says
Bartels, Econometrics and Presidential Elections, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer 1997. (Referenced by Krugman)
jackgatelycom says
There is really no comparison. The Globe poll uses almost entirely likely voters. The Western New England College does not, recently we also had the Suffolk Poll which sampled registered voters. Rasmussen Reports is the only publicly released poll which samples likely voters only.
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p>It is not more difficult to sample likely voters, it is just more expensive, but is the holy grail of polling. At jackgately.com our research projects feature likely voters only.
timatwnec says
For the record, the WNEC Polling Institute’s latest poll results are based on responses from 402 likely voters. While we also report results for a larger sample of registered voters in the latest release, our horse-race numbers focus on likely voters.
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p>Tim Vercellotti
Director, WNEC Polling Institute