A new poll out from Suffolk University shows Governor Patrick holding roughly the same margin he’s had over Charlie Baker for several months now, with Tim Cahill in the teens, and Jill Stein in low single digits. In other words, not much has changed. Here are the numbers, with the previous Suffolk poll from May 25 (in parens).
Now (May 25)
Patrick: 41% (42%)
Baker: 34% (29%)
Cahill: 14% (14%)
Stein: 4% (8%)
Undecided: 6% (7%)
So despite millions of dollars spent by the Baker campaign, as well as Washington-based groups like the Republican Governors Association, basically nothing has changed. Patrick’s lead has generally been 6-8 points, depending on the poll, for months, and that’s still where it is today. (While it’s true that Rasmussen’s recent polling has shown the race within a couple of points by including confusingly-defined “leaners,” I don’t see any reason to think that those polls are more reliable than Suffolk’s. Fivethirtyeight has not been updated to include the two or three most recent polls, so his numbers aren’t helpful right now.)
I recall a bit of hoopla over Jill Stein’s unexpectedly high 8% showing back in May. I always thought the 8% number was an outlier, and this new poll suggests I was right. I doubt that Stein’s campaign has lost half of its support since May; I just don’t think she ever had anything like 8% of likely voters in her camp. I also think that Rasmussen’s oddly low numbers for Cahill are suspect; Suffolk’s numbers in the teens seem more likely to me.
Suffolk’s wretched website still has not been updated to include this poll, so for now I’m just going on what’s in the Herald reports. I predict that, when they’re available, the details will show that dangers signs persist for Patrick: fairly high unfavorables, etc. So nobody should be especially comforted by this poll. The good news, though, is that so far the Patrick campaign has been anything but complacent, and all indications are that its aggressive approach will continue, as it should.
As for Charlie Baker, well, the Herald story says it best:
it’s panic time for the former Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO.
but it seems that the polls are consistently moving in the direction of Baker (and away from Patrick), within the margin of error.
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p>Slow movement toward Baker… too slow? Dunno.
The margin has been similar for a long time, and Patrick’s best showings have been in the low 40s, as they are in today’s poll. So … not sure what you’re remembering, but you should check the numbers. Most of them are collected at pollster.com, 538, or realclearpolitics.com.
Rasmussen 9/15 +3D
Rasmussen 9/1 +2D
SH News / KRC 8/29 +6D
Rasmussen 7/22 +6D
Globe/UNH 6/17 +7D
Rasmussen 6/21 +7D
Suffolk 5/20 +13D
Rasmussen 5/10 +14D
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p>That’s a pretty stable trend. By “away from Patrick” I didn’t mean to imply that his absolute numbers are getting worse, merely that the delta is moving away from his favor.
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p>Note that even if you pull out Ras, you get
SH News / KRC 8/29 +6D
Globe/UNH 6/17 +7D
Suffolk 5/20 +13D
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p>which also suggests a trend, albeit with far more uncertainty.
If you take the entire year instead of the blip in the middle (was that during the Weston water main break?) then you get a better idea that this race hasn’t move all that much. In September Rasmussen flipped to leaners, which is a different poll and in no way should be compared to others taken by Rasmussen prior to September.
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p>Suffolk 9/16-19/10 +7D
Rasmussen 9/15/10 +3D
Rasmussen 9/1/10 +2D
State House News 8/29-31/10 +6D
Rasmussen 7/22/10 +6D
Boston Globe/UNH 6/17-23/10 +7D
Rasmussen 6/21/10 +7D
Suffolk 5/20-23/10 +13D
Rasmussen 5/10/10 +14D
WNEC 4/11-15/10 +5D
Rasmussen 4/5/10 +8D
Rasmussen 3/8/10 +3D
Suffolk 2/21-24/10 +8D
PPP (D) 1/7-9/10 +2D
Boston Globe/UNH 1/2-6/10 +7D
obviously there are multiple trends going on at the same time — each of the four candidates ebbs and flows a bit, and the trajectory won’t be defined as a single linear fit.
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p>As for the most recent Suffolk poll, I missed it because it wasn’t on pollster just yet.
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p>Even if we include all the way back, the trend is clear — the gap had widened, and is now narrowing again. Patrick clearly remains in the lead, but with Murray hemorrhaging supporters, it’s not clear how this thing will go next.
is pretty much Rasmussen’s “leaners” definition.
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p>Suffolk has a pretty good track record over the past few races.
I too assumed Cahill’s support was deeper and found that number highly suspect.
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p>The Ras poll (like most others) was meaningless to me: any pollster who does not include EVERY balloted candidate in their questions is skewing the result, by limiting the choice.
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p>I may not support the good Doctor’s position on several issues, but NOT having her included smacks of democratic obstructionism, squashing the opportunity for any alternate ‘ideology’ to emerge in this country, never mind the Commonwealth. Relevant and varying dichotomies upend stagnation, excite the process, and make democracy thrive!
Here’s the thing:
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p>when pollsters include marginal candidates, they nearly always report higher in the poll than they do on election day. If you’re interested in using polling to understand what will happen on election day, it’s not unreasonable to throw out the marginal candidates; it tends to result in more predictive results, because people don’t want to vote for Nader and get Bush instead of Gore (or vote for Perot and get Clinton instead of Dole).
democratic obstructionism?
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p>Okay, so the MoE on that subsample is likely very high and would naturally be skewed toward Baker — one who is familiar with Baker is obviously statistically more likely to have a high opinion of him than one who has never heard of him. It’s logically inconsistent to have a good opinion of someone you’ve never heard of.
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p>That said, this seems to be the number we need to watch — the people who haven’t made up their mind about Charlie Baker. If the Governor continues to run even with Baker among these people, he will be reelected. If not….
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p>What can we do? Work like we’re 5 points behind.
David Bernstein’s latest Phoenix offering provides some food for thought.
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p>Our Governor exudes empathy, in my biased view, but if it is true that he doesn’t come across that way to the average voter, then that’s a real challenge for those of us who want to see him reelected.
Not so much for people with profound disabilities. He’s closing Fernald, and other facilities. He’s a vendor guy, all about privitizing contracts and closing state ops. I’m not feeling the empathy one bit.
“The Mole’s” infection is not spreading.
There are large undecideds, but I found these two questions interesting as they are the bread and butter of Baker’s campaign. This is all that he has been pushing and negative campaigning. After the millions in attack ads and touting his background.
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p>Q13. There are four candidates for Governor. Which candidate will do the best job improving the states economy…
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p>Patrick 35%
Baker 30%
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p>Q15. Which of the four candidates is most likely to create jobs …
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p>Patrick 28%
Baker 27%
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p>Q16. Which of the four do you trust the most…
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p>Patrick 34%
Baker 21%
If Cahill gets down to 12%, people will stop parking their vote there. Someone supporting Deval may be better off giving Cahill $100 than giving it to Patrick.
tell pollsters you support Cahill, and maybe even do some visibilities with him or something.