Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

PREDICTIONS OPEN THREAD

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Senate will be Dem controlled 52/48

New Majority leader should be elected

GOP holds 12 seat Majority in House

Foley over Evangelidis by 5,000 votes

Ford crushes Caissie in Governors Council

Dems hold strong majority in both houses of State Legislature

All 3 Ballot questions fail!

Now everyone else take a crack at it!

Winners get bragging rights!

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  1. Patrick by 4%.

    <

    p>Coakley by 17%.

    <

    p>Galvin by 15%.

    <

    p>Grossman by 2%.

    <

    p>Mary Z. by 5%.

    <

    p>Dems lose one Congressional seat in MA — Tsongas.

    <

    p>Q1 wins.  Q2 and Q3 lose big (10 plus points).

    <

    p>Republicans gain no seats in State Senate (and may lose one) and pick up meaningless 5-10 State House seats.

    <

    p>Nationally, democrats get slaughtered (but hold the Senate).

      • If you are banking on Tsongas to be the one to lose her seat you will likely lose that bet. Anyone who lives out here can sort of see that. Golnik just isn’t resonating – or, campaigning very hard… The Dem coordinated campaign on the other hand is out in force.

  2. Think it’ll be an anxious night, but with generally positive endings for the Good Guys.

    <

    p>Gov:
    Patrick 47
    Baker 45
    Cahill 5
    Stein 2

    <

    p>Treas:
    Grossman 51
    Polito 49

    <

    p>Auditor:
    Mary Z 52
    Bump 48

    <

    p>Coakley 55
    NotCoakley 45

    <

    p>Frank  59
    Bielat 41

    <

    p>Perry 52
    Keating 48

    <

    p>Q1 No 54
    Yes 46

    <

    p>Q2 No 59
    Yes 41

    <

    p>Q3 No 58
    Yes 42

      • I was push-polled by his campaign, because most of the family are Independents.  When I gave the pollster answers they didn’t like (they asked the same damned questions over and over again, just in a different way) he hung up on me!  Way to win votes!

    • the auditor’s race.   I think a couple factors give Mary Z a boost — Globe endorsement and payback from Glodis supporters, but I think Bump has run a decent campaign and she looks OK – up in my mostly republican area.  

      <

      p>I had guessed Bump wins by 2% or so.   Now I am wondering.    

      • It’ll be tight, but I am guessing Bump will win. She has had some serious campaign chops.

        <

        p>That said, there will be severe undervotes in the downticket statewide races.

      • If you’re going to protest Democratic cronyism, wouldn’t you vote a Republican into the watchdog position?

        <

        p>Frankly, if the candidate weren’t so loopy, I could be talked into it myself.  Add on the anti-Deval/pro-Glodis wing in the Party, and that might be enough.  Plus, our fine state doesn’t have a proud history of electing women.

  3. Patrick/Murray by 9%
    Grossman by 7%
    Bump by 3%
    Coakley by 20%
    Galvin by 30%

    <

    p>51/1(Lieberman)/1(Sanders)/47 Senate. Sestak’s pulling the upset; Reid’s one of the casualties, though.

    <

    p>My real prediction is for the Dems to lose the House, but my wishful thinking is going to kick in and says we hold a 2 seat majority. There’s going to be so many close elections that there will be enough seats decided by 2-3% that if we win more than we ‘should’ through a stronger GOTV and some last minute wake-up calls and excitement from things like the Jon Stewart rally, I think it could make all the difference in the world. So even though I don’t think this prediction is as likely as I want it to be, I’m going to make it nonetheless. All the prognosticators have said we have about a 1 in 5 chance of keeping the house — and I do think we have the better ground game, which may slightly improve those odds.

    <

    p>The ballot questions scare the hell out of me, because I think 1 and 3 win.

    <

    p>1: wins
    2: fails
    3: wins

    <

    p>I’m less confident on my prediction of one than I am three, and boy do I wish it was the other way around.

    <

    p>

  4. Patrick: 48%
    Baker: 46%
    Cahill: 5%
    Stein: 1%

    <

    p>A good deal of the Cahill’s and Stein’s support evaporates at the polls, ultimately benefiting Baker somewhat but not enough.

    <

    p>The Republicans very narrowly pick up one state-wide race: Connaughton as Auditor. Otherwise, the Democrats sweep the remaining statewide races and all ten congressional seats (though Grossman, Keating, and Tsongas all win quite narrowly). All three ballot questions fail. The Republicans make marginal gains in the state House and Senate, but nothing the MA GOP can crow about given their other losses statewide (Connaughton being their one bright spot).

    <

    p>Nationally, it’s a different story as the Republicans have a great night, winning the House and picking up big gains in the Senate. However, there’s a sense that it could have been better (given the hugely high expectations), because Democrats manage to eke out several of the closest House and Senate races. Ultimately, the Republicans pick up a net of 47 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate.

    • the ballot questions fail…and I agree. If only because in general, ballot questions seem to – even dumb ones that you’d think people would vote for out of a sense of personal convenience and trivial consequences – like the liquor in stores question. I was shocked that didn’t pass. LOL

      <

      p>New Englanders are notoriously resistant to change, I think, even change that they might like, or be convinced they want (like “tax cuts”).  

      • True, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there are a healthy number of people who, like me, default to voting “no” on all ballot questions unless they are particularly compelling. Even if it’s a policy I’d like to see enacted, I’m likely to vote no anyway because I think ballot questions are the wrong way to make policy.

        • I think there’s a time and a place for ballot questions. There’s a risk-adversity that comes with being in office that often prevents politicians from acting on the sorts of things people want. Or, worse, there’s entrenched lobbyists who kill issues people want to see passed.

          <

          p>The best, recent example is dog racing, something that most politicians understood was bad, but were reticent to do anything about because a) they don’t want to be seen as job killers and b) there were powerful special interests that made it a very, very, very difficult issue to act on legislatively. I can say with 100% confidence that had we not had the ballot initiative process, there probably would have been at least some form of dog racing here in Massachusetts 20, 30 and even 40 years down the line.

          <

          p>Of course, the ballot initiative process can be abused. I’d like to see some changes to it. For example, a mechanism to prevent and/or discourage paid signature collecting would do wonders to make sure that it wasn’t special interests pushing these kinds of things through — just grassroot movements. I’d also be up for banning tax questions from the ballot question process. I’m sure there are other things we could do to improve the system, but I don’t think we should get rid of it and I don’t think people should vote no on things they otherwise support, if what they support is important enough to them that they’d have a strong opinion and they feel well informed.

      • good sense prevails on ballot questions in this state — if there’s enough grassroots action on them.

        <

        p>The liquor one failed, I think, because it was basically one corporate interest (super markets) versus another (packies). In other words — not an issue around which a grassroots campaign can be galvanized. The packies were able to sell themselves as “Mom & Pop” shops (kind of absurd given what they sell), which made people reticent.

        <

        p>I think the Qs on the ballot this year have all enjoyed at least some popular, grassroots support among democratic activists — essentially telling people to vote no on all 3. In the case of liquor, I think they’ve largely been successful making the case that liquor should not be treated with the same sales tax exempt status that food, clothing and prescription drugs are treated with.

        <

        p>Therefore, the very same lobbyists who defeated the super markets last time around could very likely be defeated this time around. Thankfully, people aren’t stupid and will certainly listen, if we are able to create a movement with which we can make the case to them.

        <

        p> ….Or at least that’s the way I see things.  

  5. Gov- Patrick/Murray by 3%

    <

    p>Treasurer- Grossman by 6%

    <

    p>Auditor- Mary Zzzzzz by 2%

    <

    p>Atty General- Coakley by 9%

    <

    p>MA Congressional- All stay blue. Keating by 1%, Frank by 6%, McGovern by 9%

    <

    p>Questions 1, 2, and 3 all fail.

  6. Statewide races will be tight, and Congressional maybe a little tighter than usual, but never underestimate incumbency even in a year such as this.

    <

    p>GOP picks up the US House, but with very few seats to spare.  US Senate will stay Democratic, but Schumer should be elected Leader IMO even if Reid keeps his own seat.

    <

    p>Once this election is in the history books it won’t be long before we start hearing rumblings from Dems interested in challenging Scott Brown.

    • Good observation on that last point!

      <

      p>And I’d be glad to start hearing those rumblings… I want that campaign to start as early as possible to build momentum.

  7. Constitutional Offices

    <

    p>Patrick by 3
    Polito by 2
    Galvin by 14
    Coakley by 15
    Connaughton by 4

    <

    p>Ballot Questions

    <

    p>Question 1 : 46/54 Yes/No
    Question 2 : 52/48 Yes/No
    Question 3 : 41/59 Yes/No

    <

    p>Beacon Hill

    <

    p>Senate – Remain at 5 seats
    House – Pick up 9 – 13 seats

    <

    p>Congress

    <

    p>Capuano in a landslide in his last election before running for Senate in 2012

    <

    p>Perry and Keating in a recount with Perry by 0.5
    Frank by 2
    Lamb by 3
    Golnik by 1
    Tierney by 3

    <

    p>Post Election Predictions

    <

    p>Fresh off a resounding defeat of Question 3 newly elected Gov Patrick will propose a “temporary” income tax increase to 6% to help balance the budget.

    <

    p>Severe downturn in ad revenues at local media outlets.

    <

    p>2012 Thoughts

    <

    p>Presidential Election spending will top $5 billion if campaign finance reform not enacted.

    <

    p>Congressional and state legislative districts will be redrawn to reflect any gains made by conservative in 2010.  Multiple lawsuits ensue.

    <

    p>Ballot Questions galore on 2012 ballot including : multiple income tax rollback; multiple sales tax rollback; “progressive” income tax

    <

    p>Pension funding becomes a major issue in advance of GASB rule changes to take affect in 2013 reflecting significantly higher liabilities and requiring more funding.

      • Not from Worcester, but a progressive friend told me today that they are traveling on business and will not be voting.  Probably the first time in a long time I can recall them not voting.

        <

        p>Got me to thinking about the dynamics of Lamb v McGovern. And in no particular order:

        <

        p>1) How will dissatisfaction with incumbents affect McGovern?
        2) Lamb, to many, is not an offensive conservative candidate as evidenced by an almost endorsement of his candidacy last week by the Globe (yes McGovern was endorsed but nice words were said about Lamb)
        3) Polito v Murray turnout.  Will more people supporting the campaigns of Polito and Evangalidis turn out than those supporting Lt. Gov Murray?

        <

        p>Its also been pretty low key compared to some of the other races (Perry v. Keating and Tierney v. Hudak) which can lead to a surprise result.

        <

        p>I know, not a completely solid basis for my opinion, but thinking about potential upsets and this one came to mind.

      • I’ll eat my house and my hat…and I will know that the people in his district have truly lost their minds and the best Congressman any constituent could ever hope to have.  Not going to happen.

  8. well Patrick appears to be doing.    A month or two back I thought they were acting like they didnt want to win.     I take it back — they really seem to know what they are doing.    

    <

    p>Patrick 4%
    Tierney 3%
    Tsongas 2%
    Harriet Stanley 12%

    <

    p>Bump 2% by my guess but I am wondering, since a lot of people here seem to predict a win by Connaughton.    Is it the combination Globe endorsement combined with disaffected Glodis people?  I think the debate I saw was pretty even.    

  9. Governor
    Patrick   48
    Baker     42
    Cahill      8
    Stein       2

    <

    p>Treasurer
    Polito        50
    Grossman  49

    <

    p>Auditor
    Bump      52
    Mary Z    48

    <

    p>Attorney General
    Coakley    59
    McKenna   41

    <

    p>Worc. Co. Sheriff
    Foley      53
    Evangil.  47

    <

    p>Ballot Q. 1
    No        53
    Yes       47

    <

    p>Ballot Q. 2
    Yes       51
    No        49

    <

    p>Ballot Q. 3
    No        54
    Yes       46

    <

    p>Tyler O’Day
    Him     100
    Other kids in high school: Try and catch up

  10. Have you heard the “slap” ad? Really effective.

    <

    p>The other questions go down.

    <

    p>Agree with sab on Barney’s numbers.

    • I am not in favor of the sales tax increases or the addition of the sales tax to alcohol.  In that vein I would be a person you would expect to cast a Yes vote on 1.

      <

      p>I was firmly in that camp until I started seeing the “slap ads” and read the release put out by IHR as reported in another post on BMG http://vps28478.inmotionhosting.com/~bluema24/d…

      <

      p>I also read Amber’s passionate argument for why we need to support the treatment of those struggling with addiction.  She is far closer to the front lines than I and I have come to respect her opinion in these matters (may not always agree, but respect nonetheless).  

      <

      p>I do find the ad to be off putting and in poor taste.  However, I am torn because I also have friends who own a store that sells alcohol near the NH border and their business has been significantly harmed.  They have gone from 4 full time and 6 part time employees to 2 full time and 4 part time in an effort to keep the business afloat.  They will be lucky to break even this year and need to determine if they will try and stay in business or look to do something else.  As the business has been in the family for more than 50 years, this is not an easy decision.

      <

      p>So do I vote yes to help businesses, mostly small family businesses, that have been thrown into turmoil without much thought or concern from Beacon Hill or do I vote to support addiction treatment knowning I will put people out of business?  Not an easy choice.

      • I wasn’t aware of the counter-campaign, and I don’t really want to get into it at the moment, but tying the question to alcohol abuse and divorce feels like overreach to me. The radio version I heard was one man slapping another — slapstick, at its most literal.

        <

        p>So I stand by my point. The ad is effective.

        <

        p>

      • I needed to make a grocery store/beer run yesterday and decided to hit New Hampshire for the beer.  In my case that involved a round trip of 4 miles.  The 12 pack of beer was priced at $11.99 at the NH beer store and MA grocery store.  In NH though it really cost 11.99.  In MA I would have added bottle deposit of .05 X 12 or .60.  I would also have paid sales tax of .75. That’s a total of $1.35.  I burned roughly .40 in gas so I saved 95 cents.  That’s for one 12 pack of beer.  

  11. Gov:
    Patrick 46
    Baker 47
    Cahill 6
    Stein 1

    <

    p>Treas:
    Grossman 52
    Polito 48

    <

    p>Auditor:
    Mary Z 54
    Bump 46

    <

    p>Coakley 60
    NotCoakley 40

    <

    p>Frank  52
    Bielat 48

    <

    p>Perry 53
    Keating 47

    <

    p>Q1 No 53
    Yes 47

    <

    p>Q2 No 53
    Yes 47

    <

    p>Q3 No 49
    Yes 51

    <

    p>House picks up 60 GOP seats
    Senate picks up 8 GOP seats

  12. Patrick by 5%

    <

    p>Grossman by 3%

    <

    p>Connaughton by 6%

    <

    p>Coakley by 15%

    <

    p>Keating beats Perry 51%-49%

    <

    p>Frank by 5%

    <

    p>The rest of the Delegation wins by relatively comfrontable margins.

    <

    p>All the Questions fail. Q1 52-49. Q2 & Q3 lose by 20%+

    <

    p>US Senate 51-49 Democrats

    <

    p>US House GOP holds 16 seat Majority

    <

    p>Also Obama’s Approval Rating is back over 50% by April with all the Tea-Baggers mouthing off in Congress.

  13. Patrick & Murray by 4
    Galvin by 16
    Grossman & Coakley by 12
    Connaghton by 4

    <

    p>Pretty much in line with others’, but I think Stein does better than predicted (to 3 or 4 percent) at Patrick’s expense.

    <

    p>Why? Not because Stein has done well on the campaign trail this year–she hasn’t. However, Patrick’s winning, so it’s “safe” for Green boosters and protest votes to register their feelings by voting for Stein.

    <

    p>Let’s hope this dynamic does not backfire!

    <

    p>Oh, and all the ballot questions go down–but 3 is close.

  14. Gov
    Patrick 46, Baker 40, Cahill 12, Stein 4:  Cahill number provides a ready made to those who want one for the bigger reasons for these results, Deval’s skill at getting people to (at least) like him and the Baker2010 campaign being the 2nd worst in recent memory.  

    <

    p>A.G.
    Coakley +9

    <

    p>Treasurer
    Grossman wins in a bitter recount, thereby earning the worst of repub vitriol in the nea-to-mid term future (fortune smiles on current and future Gov. Patrick once again).

    <

    p>Auditor
    Connaughton 52, Bump 46, Fortune 2:  Nat Fortune seemed competent, smart and likable the debates he was in.  He could possibly make a big splash for the Greens in a future election, if the physicist learns that it is a requirement in statewide election to spend money in order to make much of a difference.   Another notable dynamic here is that, if either side, the green candidate may actually be drawing from the repubs, as Connaughton seems to have (fairly or not) established more good government cred than Bump.

    <

    p>10th Congressional
    Keating 51 Perry 45 Sheets 3 Lewis 1:  It is only this close because of the level of intensity within Perry’s support and the (underreported) fact that there are two formerly prominent democratic official running as independents drawing supports from likely dems (especially former Mayor and Congressman Sheets, from Quincy)

    <

    p>4th Congressional
    Frank +13:  Beilat will be back for more races.  Regardless of office, he needs to figure out how to give real answers to questions on social issues…or run in another state.

    <

    p> 6th Congressional
    Tierney +7:  Too bad for repubs their candidate was such a weirdo.

    <

    p>Ballot Question
    1,  yes +7:  Because many people feel they already pay enough tax and don’t think this one necessary.
    2,  no +16:  Because it’s confusing and many of the proponents seem kooks.
    3,  no+9:  Because it goes too far.

    <

    p>Nationally, repubs will regain the House of Representatives and dems will narrowly keep control of the Senate, thereby making Joe Lieberman on of the most important people in America (shudder).  
           

  15. Patrick/Murray by 3%

    <

    p>Coakley     58
    Not Coakley 42

    <

    p>Galvin by 25%

    <

    p>Mary Z    53
    Bump      43
    Nat        4

    <

    p>Grossman   52
    Karen P    48

    <

    p>Barney by 13%
    Tierney by 7%
    McGovern by 10%
    Tsongas by 5%

    <

    p>Keating by 2%

    <

    p>Nationally, the Dems lose the House majorty by 10 seats
    and keep the Senate by 3 seats

  16. National: gop gains 53 house seats and 7 senate seats. Next dem minority leader is a blue dog, bc dems want pelosi out. Reid loses in nv, leading to schumer as majority leader. Dems miraculously pick up senate seats in 2012, partly as a result of having real leadership.                                             State: patrick 50, baker 42 cahill 5 stein 3. Baker camp sends out a press release congratulating their guy on finally breaking 40% in an independent poll and releases their own election results showing baker up by 20.                              Grossman 52, polito 48.                                             Bump 50, connaughton 47, fortune 3. Fortunes numbers in the latest suffolk poll are too high, and like stein’s the fall when people realize its a close race. Globe endorsement shaves a point off bump’s advantage. Glodis supporters, loyal dems that we are, come out in force for bump.                           Secretary: galvin 50 campbell 30 henderson 20. Googoos like henderson, but come on. Dude doesn’t even bother to vote.          Ag coakley 67, mckena 33.                                         10th cd: keating 49 perry 48 lewis 2 sheets 1.                     4th frank 57 bielat 43. Bielat does not come back to run for another office bc he goes to jail for campaign finance monkey business.                                                           Tierney 59 whoseit 40.                                            Rest of the delegation reelected by 20+. Capuano launches bid for senate but is brought down early by a corruption scandal. Nothing is ever proven but it weakens his campaign fatally.                                                            Gop loses a state sen seats, picks up 13 state reps, sends out a press release about how the voters overwhelming support allowed the gop to have 14.5% of the house, which rounds up to 15%, making them a real party, just like kamal jain but not christy mihos.

  17. Patrick/Murray by 2%
    Coakley by a mile
    Galvin by many miles
    Grossman by 3%
    Connaughton by 2%

    <

    p>MA-10: Keating 44%, Perry 42%, Lewis 11%, Sheets 3%

    <

    p>State Rep: Perry’s Sandwich seat turns blue with a Lance Lambros win, Rhonda Nyman retains her late husbands seat for the Dems, Josh Cutler takes out Republican Dan Webster on the South Shore.

    <

    p>Looking forward to a good night.

  18. They seem to think Dems have it in the bag, at least for Gov. and Congress.  They appear not to do other statewide.
    Below are the predicted spreads with chances of Dem winning in parentheses.  One flaw appears to be that for US House only Dem and GOP nominees are acknowledged candidates, and Stein is not included in the Governor models.

    <

    p>Governor: 48-43-8% (80.7%)
    CD1: 66-32% (100%)
    CD2: 72-26% (100%)
    CD3 http://elections.nytimes.com/2… 72-26% (100%)
    CD4: 56-42% (96.7%)
    CD5: 62-35% (98.6%)
    CD6: 58-40% (98.2%)
    CD7: 68-30% (100%)
    CD8 – no opposition
    CD9: 76-22% (100%)
    CD10: 50-48% (54.7%)

  19. Gov:
    Patrick 46
    Baker 44
    Cahill 7
    Stein 3

    <

    p>Treas:
    Grossman 49
    Polito 51

    <

    p>Auditor:
    Mary Z 52
    Bump 48

    <

    p>Coakley 58
    NotCoakley 42

    <

    p>Frank  49
    Bielat 51

    <

    p>Perry 49
    Keating 51

    <

    p>Q1 No 48
    Yes 52

    <

    p>Q2 No 55
    Yes 45

    <

    p>Q3 No 56
    Yes 44

    <

    p>Tsongas 48
    Golnik 52

    <

    p>Patrick positive, Baker negative, but either is capable of being a decent Gov.

    <

    p>Polito and Mary Z, not a bad idea to have a couple of Republican statewide to keep things honest.

    <

    p>Barney too wrapped up in the real estate melt down.

    <

    p>Perry too scary.

    <

    p>Tsongas, out of touch with suburban areas of District.

    <

    p>BTW I didn’t list McGovern as he will have no problem on Tuesday!

    <

    p>

  20. I’ve been looking at modeling the polls, looking at correlations with days before the election, percent undecided, and LV v RV.

    <

    p>First, the control. Putting the 2006 poll numbers in, I get Healey 32.7%, Patrick 57.7%, Mihos 7.6%, and Ross 2.0%, with an estimated error of 3.5% for Patrick and Healey. The results were 35.4%, 55.7%, 7.0%, 2.0%, so the error was 2.7% low for Healey, 2.0% high for Patrick and 0.6% high for Mihos.  

    <

    p>In this election we get:
    Baker 40.5% +- 2.5%
    Patrick 46.9% +- 2.5%
    Cahill 9.5% +- 1.9%
    Stein 3.2% +- 1.1%

    <

    p>Assuming a similar skew as the 2006 results, I think a more realistic result would be: Baker 42.5%, Patrick 45.5%, Cahill 9%, Stein 3%

    <

    p>On the other big races, I think Bill Galvin and Martha Coakley get re-elected. The only potential GOP pickups are Mary Z and Jeff Perry, and those are prety slim. Maybe a small shot for Polito.  

  21. MA-Gov/MA-LTGov

    <

    p>Patrick/Murray  50%
    Baker/Tisei     39%
    Cahill/?         9%
    Stein/Purcell    2%

    <

    p>MA-AG
    Coakley  60%      
    McKenna  38%
    Other     2%

    <

    p>MA-Tres

    <

    p>Grossman 54%
    Polito   46%

    <

    p>MA-SOC

    <

    p>Galvin     59%
    Henderson  21%
    Campbell   19%
    Other       1%

    <

    p>Note: I hope for Henderson, but Galvin wins by ignoring debates again.

    <

    p>MA-Aud

    <

    p>Bump        47%  
    Connaughton 45%
    Fortune      6%
    Other        2%

    <

    p>Green-Rainbow gets recognized again (we need RCV!)

    <

    p>Dems hold all MA Congressional Seats
    MA-01 Olver 70% Gunn 28% Other 2%
    MA-02 Neal  72% Wesley 25% Other 3%
    MA-03 McGovern 74% Lamb 24% Other 2%
    MA-04 Frank 58% Bielat 38% Allen 2% Jordan 1% Other 1%
    MA-05 Tsongas 64% Golnik 33% Other 3%
    MA-06 Tierney 60% Hudak 38% Other 2%
    MA-07 Markey 69% Dembrowski 30% Other 1%
    MA-08 Capuano uncontested
    MA-09 Lynch 70% Harrison 23% Dunkelbarger 6% Other 1%
    MA-10 Keating 48% Perry 42% Lewis 6% Sheets 3% VanNes 1% (Conservative indies and moderate dems might abandon Perry for Lewis and Sheets)

    <

    p>Q1, Q2, and Q3 lose (Q1 is close, others lose by 10+)
    GOP makes no gains in State House, loses one seat in State Senate

    <

    p>Now for the hopeful part:
    US House: Dems maintain narrow edge (219-216), all losses are Blue Dogs (good riddance)

    <

    p>US Senate: Dems maintain 57-43 edge
    Lose: ND, AR, IN
    Gain: AK

    <

    p>Other predictions:
    Polling is dismissed as junk science (hopefully for good). Nate Silver will be forced to re-evaluate his algorithms, and will become even more accurate.
    Negative ads bankrolled by anonymous wealthy donors continue after the election.
    MSM media continues to fail at life, but continues to make bank from the negative political ads.

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