A helpful reader has informed BMG that today’s Rasmussen poll‘s favorability ratings are surprisingly, well, favorable for Governor Patrick. And surprisingly weak for Charlie Baker.
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Net | |
| Patrick | 53 | 45 | +8 |
| Baker | 47 | 50 | -3 |
| Cahill | 32 | 61 | -29 |
Remarkable, really. Governor Patrick’s net of +8 is, I think, the highest it’s been in quite some time. Maybe the facts that more than 60,000 jobs have been created this year in MA, and that our unemployment rate continues to be below the national average, are resonating.
As for Baker’s net of -3, and his unfav at the critical 50%, well, that’s testimony to the fine team of professionals, headed by Tim O’Brien, that brought you Kerry Healey’s spectacular 2006 campaign.
Even more than the horse-race numbers, the fav/unfav numbers – which bolster last week’s Suffolk poll’s finding that Patrick’s fav/unfav was slightly positive (+3) and Baker’s was slightly negative (-2) – are a big, shiny red flag for Team Baker. If, at this point in the race, more people dislike you than like you, it’s going to be tough to make up that deficit in the polls. It’s a bit late to be claiming that people will love the big lug once they get to know him better.
The favorables add up to more than 100 between the three candidates. Let’s say that:
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p>32% find Cahill favorable and Patrick favorable — but prefer Cahill. 29 out of 32 of those percent also find Baker unfavorable.
21% find Patrick favorable, and Cahill and Baker unfavorable.
47% find Baker favorable, and 45 of those 47 find Patrick unfavorable. Of those 47, 40 find Cahill unfavorable.
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p>Add it up: all the candidates get their fav/unfav numbers. Now, if everybody votes for their favorite guy, you get:
Baker 47
Cahill 32
Patrick 21
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p>Wow!
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p>Of course, this isn’t the way it is. The 32% who find Cahill favorable don’t all consider Cahill their first choice, nor do they all find Patrick favorable at all. This is why, when push comes to shove, Cahill supporters are going to jump ship. That they’ll do this almost ensures Patrick wins, whereas if they all stayed on the sinking S.S.Cahill, Baker would have a much better “probabilistic” shot at winning.
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p>The lower Cahill goes, the worse for Baker.
Where are you getting Patrick’s 21?
It’s testament to the campaign that Governor Patrick has run. When he’s out there, on the trail, just talking to people about what we can do to make things better, just connecting with folks — he just shines.
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p>He’s been positive, disciplined and passionate. In the current climate, with millions in negative ads thrown at him and a disgruntled public, he’s actually grown in the voter’s esteem. How many incumbent politicians have been able to pull off that trick in this cycle?
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p>Whatever happens, and with a few weeks to go I feel good about the race (knock wood, cross-fingers, knock doors, make calls, etc…). He and his team have a huge amount to be proud of. They have run a campaign true to the candidate, without desperation or trickery or backdoor shenanigans.
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p>This was no small feat. The outsider’s mantle that swept the Governor into office was no longer available after four years in office. This had to be different type of race, much more nuanced in messaging, but building on the Governor’s natural strengths as a communicator, his accomplished record and his continued belief in old fashioned organizing. It shows how much a strategy really matters in these things. Stick to it and execute well. They’ve done both.
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p>By contrast, the Baker folks have been all over the place. New slogans, new slime every month or so. They take every opportunity to score cheap points on the story of the day and yet does anyone really know what Baker is about, other than attacking his rivals. Doesn’t give you confidence he can get anything done in office now does it?
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p>The Loscocco cross-over had to be the most mishandled endorsement in state history. Then they role out former AG Reilly and all I can think of is how similar the Loscocco affair was to Reilly’s lieutenant governor fumbles with Marie St Fleur and Chris Gabrieli. Maybe that is why Reilly endorsed Baker: they were both one-time sure-thingers. But as these foibles prove, they both kind of suck at politics.
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p>All the while, Governor Patrick and team have stayed on course, letting the other folks make the mistakes. Its going to be a tough two weeks. But from what I’ve seen to date, I feel good about our chances (knocking wood and doors again…) and the Governor’s campaign.
you may know i lean conservative with libertarian bend. i don’t love the governor’s policies but i don’t dislike him on a human level, i believe he’s sincere in his desire to make this a better place in tough times, but here’s the point. charlie baker hasn’t reached me. he hasn’t connected. i’d like to see some passion, some intellect, something for which i could respect him. where’s teddy roosevelt or bill weld when i need him? that’s what i want in this election, passion and core values, not just more campaign rhetoric. so what do i do on election day?
Does that bother you, or do you not see it.
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p>Personally, I think Baker’s campaign — in particular, his refusal to stand against the Tea Party candidates like Hudak and Perry who scare a lot of independents — have hurt him with moderates (the people he needs to win) and contribute to his high unfavorables.
Care about specific policies? Who’ll be best able to implement them in coordination with the legislature?
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p>Care about executive gov’t efficiency? Who’ll be able to manage the executive branch to ensure maximum performance for minimal cost?
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p>Care about visable/vocal leadership? Who connects with you?
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p>Care about making a political statement about Ds and Rs? Vote for a D or an R — or explicitly don’t vote for a D or an R.
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p>Hell, hand in a blank piece of paper.
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p>Do make sure you vote though.