Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

The latest from FiveThirtyEight: we can have a great day in MA on Nov. 2, if we work for it!

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Here’s what 538 is showing for the MA-Gov race – and note that these numbers don’t take into account the fallout from Loscocco-gate, which seems likely to help Patrick.

Projected Results Chance of Win

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For some reason I can’t get the MA-10 graphs to embed, but here’s what 538 is showing in that race:

  Projected Result Chance of Win
Keating 51.6% +/- 8% 75.2%
Perry 46.0% +/- 8% 24.8%

These numbers are pretty good.  Cause for a victory lap?  Absolutely not – things could change very quickly in either race.  But they mean that, as of now, we have a very good chance at keeping both the corner office and the congressional delegation 100% blue.  So, far from sulking at home, despondent at the prospect of a Republican takeover, everyone should be doing what he or she can to turn these predictions into reality.  And it’s pretty easy, really: give money, and give time.

Volunteer for MA-Gov or MA-10.

Donate:

Deval Patrick (MA-Gov) $
Bill Keating (MA-10) $

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Don’t put it off.  Just do it.

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Comments

  1. you need some buffer zones… Massachusetts has to be one of them.

    <

    p>The “more” can’t really come from us, but certainly the “better” can, and it’s safe to say that the democrats in each of the races running is “better” than the Republican by a long shot.  

  2. Nate Silver is a lot smarter than me…but in this climate, with Cahill imploding and with Brown winning the 10th by 20 points only 9 months ago…does anyone give Patrick or Keating a comfortable 75% chance to win?  Sure Perry has the character of the pathological lair that he his and  Baker has come under the spell of Tim O’Brien who delivered a complete disaster for Kerry Healy…but we got a boat load of work to do.  I’m doing what I can for Keating–control of Congress is imperative in my mind–and we all have to work our asses off to put these races in the win column.  

    <

    p>I’m glad the supreme number cruncher thinks we’re looking good.  But it’s the door knockers, phone bankers and donors that make these races winners…not statistical regressions,  

    • Yes – that is exactly right.  The point of this post is to tell would-be door knockers, etc. that they are not in a losing battle.  They are in a tough battle, yes, but it’s a battle that can be, and should be, won.

    • “Outside the margin of error” generally means 95% chance the winner is correct. 75% means we’re in a better spot than Baker, which is clear, but no means a lock.

  4. I’ve done canvassing for Keating.  When people say they like Perry because he talks about lower taxes, I respond that the only candidate in the race who actually did lower taxes is Keating (he wrote the Estate Tax Cut that went into effect under Weld and sponsored laws that led to increased income tax relief for single parents).

    <

    p>When people respond by saying “I didn’t know that.”  My reply is “That’s why I’m here.”

    <

    p>Races like this are won on the ground with a little help from a lot of people.  It’s important not just for Keating but for all Dems.

    • I’m a Perry supporter and it’s not in my interest to help the other side here but the wanna-be political analyst in me cannot resist: if you understand the tenth district, which voted overwhelmingly for Scott Brown, then you understand that Keating’s camp would be much better served by focusing on convincing voters that Keating is moderate, or even conservative – the 24/7 mudslinging will just energize Perry’s already hyper-charged base and turn other people off. “Nancy Pelosi” really is a four-letter word down here. The sooner you learn that and campaign accordingly, the better off your candidate will be.  

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