As I reviewed Tyler O’Day’s Open Thread Post calling for election predictions, in order to confirm my superior prognostication skills (I had the Governor’s race at 49-42-8-1), I noticed an uncannily accurate cluster of predictions submitted by the usually quiet kloechner (hereinafter “K”, or “Special K”)
Although K was a bit optimistic about Patrick’s final margin of victory (50 to 39), he/she was just about “spot on” about Grossman, Bump et al. While K had all the Ballot Questions going “No”, his/her predictions were qualified by saying Question 1 would be close and the others would fail by 10+, which they did.
As for the Congressional races, other than foretelling bigger margins of victory in the less contested races, K didn’t miss a beat. Special K had the Keating race at 48-42-6-3-1, almost exact to the eventual totals, 47-42-6-4-1.
So kudos to kloechner, a rare BMG commenter but a prolific rater. In the future I pray you will choose to share more of your political insight with the less astute among us.
I was shocked as well as I reviewed my prognostications vs. the actual results with my wife last night. Speaking of which, I’ll need to write more, since most folks find my love of politics to be a bore. I was especially shocked by how close I was in my own district, since I just moved here from the 4th about a month ago. Well, to be honest, I was doing some research before the move. Anyways, I will try to be more active, especially since I would prefer to focus on my home state and local issues (the national politics are too insane for me).
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p>Still working on a clever signature.
kloechner: The Predictions Prognosticator
I also realized my accuracy was due to detaching myself from most campaigns (especially since nobody I’ve actively volunteered for has ever won, didn’t want to jinx us). I have turned some of my previous non-voting friends into primary voters though, but I don’t have a very large network. This led to most of my “volunteering” being on Twitter. You can probably tell from the Secretary’s race prediction who I was actively volunteering for.
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p>As far as being a prolific rater, this has more to do with my thin skin than anything else. After I made a snarky comment that was 3 rated by one of the RMG people here, I went on a tear. In most cases this was probably justified, as it mirrored the ratings of most members of the site. I also tried to be fair when the RMG people made somewhat rational arguments.
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p>Anyways, I must give some credit to Nate Silver for my Congressional predictions (but I also tried to factor in some other things like cell phone only folks and non-English speakers). He did not break out the Ind candidates though, so that was me.
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p>Once again thanks for breaking me out of my shell a bit, and I hope to get some form of introductory diary up at some point in the near future. Any delays will likely be due to my job search, etc.