Let me summarize it for you: The 2012 Senate campaign started in January and deserves our full attention now that November 3rd has passed.
Public Policy Polling put Scott Brown up against Vicki Kennedy, Deval Patrick, Mike Capuano, Steve Lynch, and Ed Markey. Senator Brown is leading against each of these Democrats at the moment, and has high approval ratings. Public Policy Polling calls him
…one of the most popular Senators in the country, with 53% of voters approving of his job performance and only 29% disapproving.
Surely these poll respondents don’t know how hard Senator Fluff is working against the middle class – against an unemployment extension and giving away tax cuts to billionaires. Something tells me that once the voters of Massachusetts begin to look closely at Scott’s Senate record and his handsome model veneer begins to crack, so too will his approval rating.
Here’s hoping, now let’s start working.
I’m not sure about copyright concerns with posting the data, so I’m just going to link to it – PPP article here, crosstabs here.
What are your thoughts? How can we get started today to elect Democrats in 2012? How are we going to win back Brown’s seat? Who is missing from this poll? Khazei? Tim Murray?
To try and paint Scott Brown as a guy who is actively trying to screw the middle class. I think his choices aren’t good ones and his ideas have weaknesses, but I think it’s also clear that he believes in his ideas, much like the nice guy behind the deli counter believes that he has all the answers to this or that political crisis or how every bartender in Boston thinks they can fix the Red Sox.
<
p>The way to beat Scott Brown isn’t to argue that he hates working people, but to give voters a better, smarter, clearer alternative.
…you have to make the case to fire the guy. Showing who he really is goes a long way toward that.
He pulled himself from consideration for the UMass presidency.
Since Rachel Maddow swears that she’s not running herself…
I know who she is, but nobody outside of the beltway or the ivory tower does. Also I think the new agency and the choice of her to lead it was one of the few bright spots of the Obama administration. Let us hope she stays there awhile and gets great work done.
<
p>Can she kick ass in that agency and come back here to kick ass in local politics? Sure, and I’d be a happy supporter, but for 2012 its just not an option.
Some entity HAS to start spending money running ads attacking Brown for his unpopular stands and his votes against the working people. We have to “dirty him up”, just like the RGA did to Cahill early, and like talk radio does to Democratic candidates 24/7.
Kennedy died with $4.5m in his campaign coffers – maybe that money can be transferred to the DSCC to get the ball rolling. Anyone know what happened to Kennedy’s campaign cash? FEC site isn’t cooperating, but today is a reporting deadline so I kind of expected that…
Perhaps it could be transferred to the Kennedy Library account, thus reducing the appropriation…
Don’t know if there are legal issues involved.
GOP ideology: 10% claim too liberal, 52% too conservative, 32% about right. 59% of moderates think the GOP is too conservative.
<
p>So, want to beat Brown? Every time he carries the GOP’s water and votes with them in unity, report it. Talk about it. Make him one of them. Then, he loses.
Especially in 2012 when nitwit Republicans are going to be spouting off all over America.
<
p>”Call Scott Brown and ask if he agrees with Sarah Palin that…”
“Scott Brown says that Mitt Romney would make a fine president, yet Romney…”
<
p>etc., etc.
It was supposed to be a walk for Coakley too. Is Brown unbeatable like this poll and the Herald and Carr echo chamber make him out to be? Of course not. But any Democrat will not suffice and we need an exceptional candidate that can beat him at his own game and win back working Democrats and independents who defected en masse to Brown. Let us make no assumptions this time, my pants for one will not be caught down this time, and let us hope the party and candidate wont either.
I’m always a little leery of harassing a politician based on a stupid comment from another party member. I know I wouldn’t want to be distracted by being asked to comment on everything another Democrat said. Asking if he agrees with the official platform of either the state or national GOP would be fair game, however.
this far out from November 2012. I expected them to be worse given Brown’s popularity.
<
p>The PPP poll shows Deval Patrick losing to Brown by only 7 points, which isn’t too shabby given Patrick’s relatively high unfavorable numbers. The other tested opponents aren’t known nearly as well as Brown. Given that most Republicans are already decided and for Brown, the key will be to shift the high number of Democratic defectors from Brown (currently 25%-30% saying they’ll vote for Brown).
<
p>The best way to do that? Exactly what stomv stated above. Tie the anchor of the GOP to Brown. Release the statistics of him voting 90% with the McConnell and the Republican leadership (or whatever inevitably high number it turns out to be). Pound him as voting lock-step with the national GOP, despite what he claims. Note that he supports the hyper-conservative Republican nominee for president. Convince Democrats that since the Senate is in danger due to Democratic losses elsewhere, trowing Brown out will help stem the tide.
<
p>These are the types of arguments that got Lincoln Chafee fired from his Senate seat in 2006 despite 63%(!) of Rhode Island voters actually approving of Chafee’s performance in office. Given that 2012 will be a presidential election year, we also have the advantage of strong base turnout. A solid Democratic nominee should be able to beat Brown even if Brown’s approval ratings remain high.
Unfortunately thats just it, Brown is an exceptionally good looking, talented, and charismatic campaigner with working class roots and will be tough to beat. I think the Democrats have their work cut out for them. We cannot assume Obama coattails or a generic Dem will be good enough. We need an exceptional candidate, one to vote for and not just in place of Brown. It needs to be a candidate that has Browns assets, good looks, great speaking style, and working class roots. I have been boosting Murray for sometime but am open to any candidate who has a shot at winning.
<
p>Sadly our Congressional delegation, as talented as they are, are lackluster candidates since none face competitive elections and most are too old. Similarly I think DP got by due to good luck and lackluster opponents, and MA voters tend to punish aspirants to higher office from the Corner Office. Also, which has been left unsaid, Browns victory was a repudiation of the Kennedys and their ‘claim’ to the seat. Keep them out of this one they do more harm than good. This leaves a rather small bench unfortunately. Murray is the only one who fits that profile with built in organizations in Central Mass, name rec across the state, and a ton of money. Other candidates include state legislators (Elbridge, Sciortino, Chang-Diaz come to mind as prominent progressives). New Congressmen Keating. Middlesex DA Gerry Leone, or Boston politicos Michael Flaherty and Mike Ross. All would require extensive campaigning starting NOW to get the name rec out. Tim for Senate has a nice ring to it though.
You would think that MA of all places would have one of the deepest benches of good Dems in the country.
But I don’t see all too many that impress. I suspect because most run in safe districts they are bland and uninspiring candidates, but since Brown faced a competitive election every four years he became a pro at being a good pol.
Brown faced re-election to the State Senate every TWO years.
This is not an independent think-tank polling organization, but a gun for hire.
<
p>I don’t know if I smell Scott Brown, or just garbage.
PPP is run by a Democrat, and they put up online polls pretty regularly to ask their blog readers where they should poll next. You might smell garbage, but that garbage smell isn’t Scott Brown (this time.)
Deval Patrick began running for the 2006 Governor election at the end of 2004. It wasn’t officially a campaign, IIRC, but it was a committee of some sort, and I remember stopping by their offices several times before new years, as well as in the first few months of 2005. We were organizing already.
<
p>To beat Scott Brown, we could really use a strong grassroots campaign. And strong grassroots campaigns take a long time to build. By this time in 2006 cycle, Deval Patrick was already building one. Is anyone starting to do that for the 2012 MA-Senate election yet?
It would be really tragic if they just gave this one a pass. It looks like Capuano is definitely leaning in based on some his votes and his high profile verbal lashing out at Pelosi. In terms of money Murray is sitting on a nice hefty warchest, so is Meehan (leftover from his aborted 04 Senate campaign), so is Galvin (from his many aborted gubernatorial runs), and I would imagine Deval from this last campaign. Any of these names would be solid contenders for the nomination. Murray is the only one who strikes me as a contender for the general.
Meehan’s $5M is from several years running for Congress, often with token opposition. Galvin’s money on the other hand is worthless for a federal race I’m pretty sure. It works in reverse too. Meehan could not have used money accumulated in federal campaigns to run for Governor.
Markey will likely jump in. He has been making himself more visible and my gut tells me he won’t want to stay in the House under the GOP. That said if we do turn it around there are a few chairmanships up for grabs. Frank could also conceivably be tempted now for the same reason. Both endorsed Capuano last time around though so it seems likely they only jump in if he stays out.