The latest poll in the MA-Sen race is out, and it’s a doozy. The poll, jointly commissioned by UMass-Lowell and the Boston Herald, shows Elizabeth Warren opening up an impressive 49-42 lead over Scott Brown. The same pollster found Brown with a narrow 41-38 lead a little over two months ago.
Among the terrible bits of news for Brownie contained in the poll’s details:
- Since the last UMass/Herald poll, Brown’s favorable rating has slipped 4 points (from 52% to 48%) and his unfavorable has climbed 6 points (from 29% to 35%), for a net movement of -10.
- The central message of Warren’s campaign seems to be working:
Asked who would do a better job of looking out for middle class families, 43 percent of voters cite Warren and 33 percent identify Brown. Nearly half of Massachusetts voters also say Warren would do a better job of regulating Wall Street institutions. And more than a third of Massachusetts voters say they are less likely to back Brown because of campaign donations from Wall Street, a main theme of the Democratic attack against the incumbent.
- Comments like this from independent ex-Brown voters are absolutely devastating, since they show that Scott Brown’s act isn’t fooling people:
“I think she’s got the smarts to do a better job than our incumbent,” said Dick Morrison, a Newton independent who participated in the UMass-Lowell/Herald poll. Morrison said he voted for Brown in the January 2010 special election against Martha Coakley, but is now disappointed in the Republican’s performance. “He’s a fence sitter. If he’s going to be a leader he should be a leader.”
The only ray of hope for Brown is that Warren’s unfavorable rating has risen from 18% to 27%, perhaps partly because of the barrage of special-interest attack ads running against her. But her favorables have also increased (from 30% to 34%), and a 27% unfavorable rating is still pretty good. If she can contain her unfavorables in that vicinity, she’ll be in great shape.
Overall, this poll has to come as a big disappointment to Team Brown, and should serve as encouragement to Team Warren that what they’re doing is working. The message is getting through, folks. Don’t let up.
long2024 says
49% are voting for Warren and she has a 34% favorable rating? That means at least 15% of the voters polled have no opinion/an unfavorable opinion of her and are still voting for her. That 15% must REALLY not like Brown.
stomv says
They moved from 30-18 (+12) to 34-27 (+7). It seems that, generally, it’s easier for your unfavorability to go up than your favorability — one bad impression vs. a number of positive impressions.
It’s still early, but I’d feel better if her favorables were marching upward more quickly.
Laurel says
thus mostly after my Dec 2 post that prompted her campaign to make a pro-LGBT equality statement. Clearly this is information that an important slice of voters was waiting for. You’re welcome. ;P
goldsteingonewild says
.
goldsteingonewild says
Another factor here is how many independent voters vote Obama and “balance it” with Brown.
Of course, it could run the other way: Romnich/Warren.
MA is unusually high at 41.2%.
David says
The good thing from Warren’s perspective is that ticket-splitters tend also to be throw-the-bums-outers, and if they vote Romnich/Warren they can do both! 😀
David says
I have absolutely no evidence to support my thesis that ticket-splitting and anti-incumbent voting tend to go together. It just seems likely to me. So take with whatever quantity of salt you deem appropriate.
Mark L. Bail says
Karl Rove has an ad saying: “Warren: Overseeing your tax dollars on TARP bailouts.”
As Digby writes,