367 days ago, I wrote a list of predictions for 2011. Many joined in with theirs. How did we do? Well….huh…
Most annoyingly, after I specifically predicted that Kim Jong Il would not die, he went off and kicked the bucket just in time for 2011. Blah. (Jimc correctly disagreed with me then.) Aside from the safe prediction of new heads of government in Ireland, Australia, and Japan, and a non-indictment of Assange, I blew almost all.
Props due to the following for their input:
warrior02131 predicted that the Red Sox would continue to suck.
liveandletlive: “the Main St economy will continue to stuggle along, while Wall Street and large global corporations will continue to do well”
doubleman: “Chris Christie’s star fizzles.”
jconway: “Bruins beat Canadiens and eventually win Stanley Cup.”
The winningest prediction eddiecoyle: “After redistricting by the Legislature carves up the 4th Congressional District, Congressman Barney Frank calls it a political career and announces he will not run for re-election to Congress in 2012.”
What nobody saw coming European financial meltdown, assassination of OBL, rise of Ron Paul and Elizabeth Warren.
Below the bump: What I get wrong for 2012!
US:
Obama-Biden beats Romney-Perry in Election 2012 by a 276-262 score. Romney wins nomination after “surprising” victories in Iowa and NH; Paulmentum killed in NH and SC. Perry’s endorsement after FL finishes the thing.
Warren beats Brown 54-46; MA and NV are the only red-to-blue flips in the Senate.
Republicans continue to hold the House. Eric Cantor is elected Speaker.
Hillary Clinton remains as Sect’y of State after World Bank presidency falls through. John Kerry relegated to more speeches to bathroom mirrors.
5-4 health care SCOTUS case results in awkward decision to piss everyone off. Kennedy writes own opinion, upholding many of the programs, but sides with majority that declares forced purchase of insurance is unconstitutional
World:
After Pakistani President Zardari is assassinated, the military openly takes over the county.
Putin sacrifices Medvedev to keep power.
Plans to usher Greece out of the Euro are in place; will take effect in 2013. Sarkozy loses re-election. Cameron’s coalition finally fractures.
Karimov and Assad overthrown. King Abdullah of Jordan is in his last days.
Desperate to distract its population about its do-nothing government, the Indian PM will visit Taiwan. A member of the Tata family enters politics and is the putative next PM.
Business/Entertainment:
Winners: Miami Heat, Baltimore Ravens, and some hockey and baseball team.
Netflix value plummets and is bought by another Hollywood player.
China out-golds the US in London 2012, but US wins most overall medals.
Lady Gaga abruptly quits the business, citing burnout.
Unemployment stays above 8% throughout.
Wild Guesses:
At least one Republican Senate nominee is replaced in September or October.
A treasure trove of redhot memos, etc., from Goldman Sachs is leaked, first to foreign media. People are pissed, nothing changes.
Sears/KMart bankruptcy ends another source of major ad revenue for newspapers. One of the following folds: Herald, Telegraph-Gazette, Patriot Ledger. Globe stays afloat on NYT dough.
Lawsuits aplenty over the casino action. Ground is not broken; Kraft buys a more pliable Board of Selectmen in Foxborough.
A nuclear test in Iran. Israel does not attack.
Unemployment will fall below 8%.
There will be a war with Iran.
Mike Ross will win in the Fourth Congressional District.
Elizabeth Warren will defeat Scott Brown.
There will be massive efforts to suppress votes and many states elections will be contested.
SCOTUS will decide that the healthcare law is constitutional.
Obama will narrowly defeat Romney.
The Red Sox will suck.
but I bet he would be leading in the polls if he were still in the race.
I predict in 2012 our economy will become more unstable and begin to fail completely in a slow and methodical way, giving the big investors and insiders the chance to escape the devastation without too much pain and leaving the rest of us holding the remaining bags of worthless goods. People will continue to revolt, but not necessarily by occupying publicly. There will be more outrage over the inflated costs of healthcare, utilities, and food. People will be rebelling behind the scenes. Consumers will close their pocket books and stop buying.
President Obama is going to have to fight hard to win re-election. I’m going to have to carry forward my previous prediction that he will lose the election by a slim margin. Ron Paul will be the next President of the United States. Things will be a-changing. We will be in a great depression for at least a decade and because of that our economies will become more local, poverty will be a way of life for most people. If not poverty then many will experience a sharp decline in their standard of living. It will be a different world. 2012 will be the beginning of this process.
I have other prediction but will have to share them later.
As I’m ready to hit the submit button Ron Paul’s smiling face is staring at me from an advertisement to my right. Amazing how technology can pick up what I’m writing about and help me to sort out what this corporate world thinks I need in my life. Sort of scary….actually.
Surely Huckabee (if he’s game) or Pawlenty (if Mitt is a dummy). Either way I am not so sanguine about Obama’s chances as you. But unless some very bad things happen we will, let’s hope, see.
Mitt chose Kerry “Muffy” Healey to be his lieutenant governor. Healey did all that was ceremonial, but there is no evidence that she was a major player in the Romney administration. If Willard is true to form, Nikki Haley will reprise the Muffy Healey role in 2012.
And a pretty smart choice from His Expediency’s pov too.
Haley would be a very smart choice for lots of reasons.
State
Warren wins by 5% or more.
The Bruins repeat.
Carl Crawford continues to suck.
Tierney wins reelection.
DeLeo’s out.
Howie Carr’s out.
National
Hillary moves on as Sec of State.
We stay in Afghanistan.
Democrats win the House, but lose the Senate. Obama wins reelection and MSM declares it a “Republican” night.
Obama sneaks the climate-killing Canadian pipeline through, but finds a way to try to blame it on the GOP.
Government is essentially shut down for at least 24 hours after the GOP throws another hissy fit.
National Democrats continue to back down on every substantive bill of any importance, symbolic or otherwise, in which the GOP doesn’t like… and many that they do.
Elizabeth Warren routinely embarrasses the party on it, to the extent that it actually has an effect and we start to see hints of the potential for a spine, like letting something die instead of completely caving in, so we can at least blame the other party and take it to the voters.
International
We bomb Iran, because we’re Fing stupid.
NK decides to test the waters, like sink another naval vessel or bomb another SK island.
China is forced to make some serious changes as a country, be it political change at the top or some kind of policy change to appease the populace.
At least one more country gets swept up in the Arab Spring, and it could be the same country for the second time (ie Egypt).
Putin is out.
Democracy continues to die in Europe, and the lines between “liberal” Europe and “conservative” America continue to blur.
Julian Assange ends up in American prison.
Rupert Murdoch’s son gets arrested. Peirs Morgan is fired from CNN, in large part due to the hacking scandal.
Here are my apocryphal predictions — I offer them in hopes that they fail to materialize:
The feds essentially seize control of today’s US internet, citing “terrorism” and “piracy” as their pretext. Techno-dweebs attempt to create a bottom-up alternative, and are aggressively prosecuted for doing so.
Methane levels unexpectedly continue to skyrocket in the Arctic, creating sudden and massive weather disasters. The government, owned by corporate interests, does nothing while the rest of the world recoils in horror.
Iran and Israel go to war in the ME (with the popularly-elected governments of the rest of the ME siding against Israel), and — after much wailing and gnashing of teeth — the rest of the world chooses affordable petroleum over Israel.
Most civil liberties in the US are suspended in response to the “unprecedented threats” to national security. The 2012 election doesn’t matter.
Those 2012 predictions are completely ridiculous . . . they won’t happen until Obama’s second term.
Longtime reader, first time commenter (please be gentle …)
President: Obama wins popular vote, but is defeated by Romney, who wins in the major swing states. Pennsylvania plays huge in 2012.
Senate: Brown defeats Warren by fewer than 7 points. Points that hurt Warren: lack of vigorous D primary leaves her ill-prepared to deal with a difficult general campaign against a solid debater (political debates are much different than talking points in front of a subcommittee); despite his actual record, Brown is still seen by many as a moderate.
MA 01: Neal beats Nuciforo (who was originally primarying Olver), cruises in a more liberal First District in the general.
MA 02: McGovern faces strong challenge from Karyn Polito (Shrewsbury is now in the district) and wins by 10.
MA 03: Tsongas runs unopposed.
MA 04: Mike Ross does not run (he will effectively abandon his counsil seat to run in a race he isn’t convinced he can win). Kennedy’s kid does not run (Kennedys don’t run in races they can lose, he’s young, inexperienced, and will be seen as a carpet-bagger, MA is weaning itself off of Kennedy addiction). Setti and Balser run; a South Coaster runs and wins.
MA 05: Markey runs unopposed.
MA 06: Tierney loses to Tisei by 12.
MA 07: Capuano faces primary challenge from a minority candidate, Capuano wins by 10.
MA 08: Lynch runs unopposed.
MA 09: Keating faces a primary challenge from a resurgent Rob O’Leary, now that the new 9th basically mirrors his old senate seat. Keating squeaks past the primary and faces a token conservative. Keating wins by 12.
US
Obama wins over Mitt. Turnout higher than predicted.
Shortly after election, Hillary Clinton announces she is stepping down; 2016 rumors fly.
John Kerry gets the job but has to suffer a flurry of “Obama really wanted Hillary to stay” stories.
World
European economic woes get worse.
Russia nods to world pressure, has something resembling election monitors, and elects … Vladimir Putin.
North Korean succession is messy. New leader by 2013.
US and China meet, spurring talk of a “G2.”
Business/Entertainment
Google celebrated as heir to Apple, briefly.
A “United Artists” type record label is formed, headed by three or four major bands.
Lady Gaga continues to rule. (sab, you blasphemer!)
I’ll say unemployment nears 7% by Election Day.
Sports
Sox win division, lose ALCS.
The Pack is back (Green Bay) to win the Super Bowl.
Kobe Bryant misses playoffs due to injury. Heat win title.
An active athlete gay marries (doubling down from last year).
Massachusetts
Deval flirts with stepping down, citing family obligations, but really to fuel 2016 rumors. He decides to stay.
All three casinos break ground.
A new speaker is elected, but I don’t know who.
Here’s the skinny on 2013.
State & Region
Scott Brown, on the rebound from his ’12 loss, lands position as spokesdroid for Foxborough casino. Meanwhile developers, approvals in hand, announce they will scale back lavish plans. “You don’t need a palace for a slots barn.”
Supreme Court declines 4-4 to nullify agreement shutting down Vermont Yankee nuke.
Mitt Romney, back “home” and running as a moderate, holds a comfortable lead in polling to fill Senate seat vacated by Secretary of State John Kerry. (About his earlier positions? “Was running for office, for Pete’s sake.”)
Gov. Patrick serves out his term as U.S. Senate refuses to vote on his POTUS nomination (or anything else).
U.S.
House impeaches President Obama for the third time.
Hackers shut down SW electrical grid for 36 hours.
Intrade has Nikki Haley leading Republican pack for ’16
World
Europe halts decline.
Canada imposes export tariffs on Oil Sands gas.
Denmark, one of the four Arctic powers, tests nuclear device.
Remember, you heard it here first.
Had a really long and awesome post last night that apparently never made it onto BMG, but alas here is a (somewhat) recreated albeit condensed version of what I proposed. I totally copies Sabutai’s organization but have somewhat different predictions.
US:
Obama-Biden beats Romney-Thune/or Cantor in Election 2012 by a 270-268 score. I am less optimistic about holding onto Iowa than Sabutai. Nevada will be the Florida/Ohio of this election and Obama wins it by only a handful of votes thanks to Hispanics, SEIU, and Reid. Allegations of vote fraud will permeate across all right wing stations although the mainstream media will accept it since Obama will have won the popular vote by a 51-48 showing with Jesse Ventura and Ralph Nader capturing 1% in total. Paul supports Romney in exchange for a primetime speech that is about as helpful as Pat Buchanan’s was.
Romney pulls a Kerry after IA and NH wins, easily bests rivals. Picks safe, telegenic, but sufficiently fanatical Thune. Otherwise picks Cantor as an olive branch to Boehner and if he feels he can pick up Jewish votes.
Warren beats Brown 52-48; MA is the only red-to-blue flips in the Senate
Republicans continue to hold the House but by a slim 8-10 seat majority, a lot of attrition in the Tea Party caucus. Locally Tisei beats Tierney in an upset, Tisei becomes an independent caucusing with Democrats in 2014 election due to expediency and perceived homophobic slights in his caucus. Senator Chris Shays, Rep. Charlie Bass consider a similar move over ideology. Snowe is primaried but pulls off a Murkowski.
Unfortunately Clinton steps down as SoS, but begins preparations for 2016 race, much like Bush in 2004, Obama’s popularity continues to go down after re-election and Clinton makes a few subtle and soft criticisms to distance herself.
Petraues surprise pick for SoS, Kerry becomes harsh left wing critic of Obama and prepares for 2016 run as a real leftist
5-4 health care SCOTUS case results in awkward decision to piss everyone off. Kennedy writes own opinion, taking down many of the programs, but sides with majority that declares forced purchase of insurance is constitutional (he is that unpredictable).
5-4 decision, with Kennedy in majority, declares fetal pain laws constitutional, emboldens otherwise unexcited Democratic base after Obama strongly attacks it, depresses right wing turnout after Romney’s tepid endorsement.
OH and WI throw out Republican legislators, Sen. Sherrod Brown and Senator-elect Tammy Baldwin run ahead of Obama in these swing states and labor makes one last gasp at relevancy within the Democratic party.
Pelosi retires after Dems fail to take majority, Clyburn backs out for Hoyer but Van Hollen makes a surprise win and becomes Minority Leader.
Boehner promises to step down in 2014 to avoid Cantor knifing.
Reid knifed by Schumer, McConnell knifed by Corker.
World:
Hormuz strait crisis is biggest foreign policy crisis since the Cuban missile crisis, a few tense weeks where war seems inevitable, China unilaterally suspends its purchases of Iranian oil choking that economy and almost triggering another Green Revolution. China wants the US to owe it a favor for later developments.
Arab Spring takes out Assad, Saleh, king of Bahrain, Egypts military junta, threatens Algerian, Jordanian, and Saudi leaders who go father than expected to reform their nations along democratic lines.
Ironically oldest Middle Eastern democracies (Israel and Turkey) become even less democratic internally and less friendly with one another externally. Bibi’s government falls after his far right coalition tries to limit free speech against Jewish state and far right terror attack against Israeli left undermines his authority. Barak comes back as part of his own party’s merger with Kadima and the rational remnants of Likud, only slightly less conservative than Bibi.
Sarko re-elected in runoff with Le Pen. Villepen and Socialists divide center-left and cancel one another out. They rally to their bitter foe to prevent Le Pen victory, which comes shockingly close to occurring.
Merkel does not survive 2012, neither do the governments of Italy, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, or Britain.
In Britain the coalition fractures when Clegg makes concession on ATV and the EU for the sake of ‘unity’, Chris Huhne successfully takes him out, pulls Lib Dems out of coalition triggering snap election in wake of worst riots Britain as seen as part of costly, crime ridden, riot ridden Olympics. David stabs Ed in the back, leads new Labor-Lib coalition to strong victory, though heavily dependent on Lib side to govern.
Canada’s rightward drift continues, eased restrictions on fire arms, ban on partial birth abortions, limited private competition introduced into health care, Gutting of environmental regulations for the sake of Western energy interests. Liberals and SDP merge into single party lead logically by ex-SDP premier turned Liberal MP Bob Rae. BQ ceases to be a national party to focus on rebuilding provincial PQ. Otherwise Harpers government is stable, no election in 2012.
Putin sacrifices Medvedev and United Russia to maintain power, wins re-election but is lame duck as soon as he shows up. Empowered opposition begins to unify around single charismatic figure to be determined later.
Back to China, violent crushing of Tibetan and Uighur populations and Jasmine Spring moves in urban cores. The state starts lavishly spending on rural areas to maintain power base, moves in a more statist direction on economy to mitigate income inequality. Helps US out on Iran (see above) and also forces Kim Jong-Un to make Deng like reforms in exchange for drastically increased aid. China unilaterally gets him to give up nukes in exchange for letting him get placed under their umbrella. Instability and crises diffused, although reunification becomes far less likely and NK is increasingly even more of a province of China.
Sports:
Winners: Bruins repeat, Steelers beat Pats for AFC, Niners upset the Pack, most boring superbowl of all time won by Niners. Bulls beat Heat lose to Thunder. Kobe quits basketball mid season due to personal crisis and injuries. Garnett retires after Celtics fail to advance in playoffs. Allen stays on. Rondo traded in dumb mid-season move. Giants beat Brewers for NL, Tigers sweep a tired and old Yankees in ALCS, beat Giants for World Series win.
Entertanment:
Winners: Midnight in Paris wins Best Picture in upset over the Artist, Clooney wins Best Actor in upset over the Artists star, Fincher wins Best Director for Dragon Tatoo mainly to atone for last years results in same category, Craig gets Oscar nod moves into Connery territory as an actor that escapes Bond. Rooney upsets Meryl and Michelle for Best Actress. Plummer gets honorary Best Supporting Actor statue, Octavia Spenser for the Help as Best Supporting Actress.
Business:
Winners: KindleFire eats into Ipad sales, Facebook and Groupon have huge IPOs that will burst later, tech stocks become hot again inflating a new tech bubble, GM, Ford, and Chrysler have record years, along with VW and Hyundai. Japanese car makers start to look like they are in trouble, particularly Honda and Nissan. Obama uses auto bailouts and Romneys opposition in MI and OH, including great ad contrasting Romney’s Gekko tenure at Bain with his dad’s paternal Fordist tenure at AMC. “Not your fathers Romney”, devastates any attempt by Willard to win MI or Midwest.
Unemployment stays above 8% throughout.
Losers: Mitt Romney, Toys r Us, Kmart, Microsoft
Wild Guesses:
-Tipper and Gore’s divorce reveals creepy sexcapades of VP, tarnishing his reputation forever
-By contrast Bill and Hillary are revealed to have a healthy marriage
-Biden dies early in the second term, Bloomberg surprise pick to replace him
-Holder resigns, writes tell all book about spineless Obama, runs for Congress in NYC and wins, becomes surprising rising star
-Deval tapped to replace Holder, Murray becomes Gov, resigns after blackbox scandal, Prince of Darkness becomes Gov, vulnerable to Scott Brown
-Deleo is knifed, indicted soon after
-Pat Murray seriously considers running for Governor
-Healy makes comeback as new Secretary of State
-Howie Carr goes too far, loses show
-Anderson Cooper successfully outed, along with Lindsey Graham
-Barney Frank gets MSNBC show and its awesome
-Oldermann and Current fade into twilight along with Glenn Beck
-Bob Costas/Olympic anchored NBC Sports becomes serious ESPN rival, more cerebral alternative (the MSNBC to its FOX so to speak), Grantland and Bill Simmons defect to it
-The Hobbit becomes the highest grossing picture of all time in general and adjusted for inflation, wins Jackson another Best Pic and Best Director in 2013
-Mad Men continues to be awesome
-Treme is cancelled but the Wire gets a feature film proposal with principles committed
-Arrested Development returns to HBO
-Conan is cancelled, he fades into obscurity
-Colbert wins actual RNC delegates after also-rans bow out to Romney and bored liberals invade open primaries in droves, forces Mitt to waste some money
Best prediction on the board. It would be must see TV.
Not “POTUS,” which makes no sense.
State
Brown beats Warren 52-48
Pats lose to Baltimore in the AFC Championship
The Bruins repeat.
Red Sox continue to rebuild, fail to make playoffs
Tierney loses to Tisei
Kennedy wins Dem primary in the 4th, loses the general, chattering the Kennedy invincibility.
Suffolk Downs-Foxborough casino battle continues, getting more vicious as it goes along. Suffolk ultimately wins out.
Wampanoags don’t get a casino. New Bedford developer wins lawsuit and casino license. Major leadership changes in tribe.
National
Obama beats Romney-Rubio 272-266. Voter turnout below 50%
Hillary moves on as Sec of State. Kerry does NOT replace her, he fades into obscurity
Republicans win Senate, keep the House.
We stay in Afghanistan.
SCOTUS upholds health care law.
My wild guesses were pretty wild, but suffolk dem is pretty close to what I see happening with a few minor differences. I really don’t get the Kerry for SoS buzz and most people outside of the New England area are not talking about it, he got one mention in a Times article awhile back, but I really don’t see it as something Obama wants to do. It wouldn’t make a difference here, we will have two junior senators no matter who wins or leaves.
The GOP squabble over the payroll tax extension is a harbinger of things to come. The GOP Tea Partiers will be frustrated by the emergence of Mitt Romney in the presidential race, and agitated by John Boehner’s efforts to present a more reasoned veneer on the House. Primaries against house moderates, and voter disdain for the House GOP antics, will result in a razor-thin 4-seat margin for the Democrats in 2012. A dark-horse candidate emerges as the next Speaker of the House.
The Wisconsin recall will be successful, and will resonate with buyers regret in Ohio and Florida. The unpopularity of GOP governors in Ohio and Florida will translate into an Obama win in these two swing states.
The map of 2012 senate races favors the GOP, and Republican gains create a 50-50 tie. Secretary of State Biden will be happy that Vice President Hillary Clinton is the one tethered to Washington to preside over the upper chamber. The Biden-Clinton switch comes after internal polls showed Hillary putting Obama over the top in three key swing states. Elizabeth Warren wins in Massachusetts with 54% of the vote. Wisconsin elects its first openly-gay US Senator. The 50-50 senate split freezes aspiring senators out of second-term cabinet seats.
Romney chooses Nikki Haley as his running mate. Obama carries South Carolina.
SPORTS
Bobby Valentine will lead the Red Sox to a 2012 World Series victory; Yankees fail to make the playoffs. The Patriots will lose to San Francisco in Super Bowl XLVI. The Chicago Blackhawks will win the Stanley Cup. Is the NBA playing?
ENTERTAINMENT
Lady Gaga tires of the act, and Stefani Joanne Angelina Germanotta fulfills her childhood dream by playing the lead role of a revival on Broadway.
Al Sharpton is replaced on MSNBC by Michael Steele. Barney Frank’s new show on MSNBC will eclipse O’Reilly within six months. (Tip of the hat to jconway for the initial Barney Frank prediction.)
and if last years any indication I get at least one right, let’s hope it’s this one. Not even a big fan of his but it would be fantastic television.