So what’s your prediction for how the chips will fall in New Hampshire today? For a couple of interesting data points, here are the results from the last two days of Suffolk polling. The poll released today is first; the one released yesterday is in (parens).
Romney: 37 (33)
Paul: 18 (20)
Huntsman: 16 (13)
Santorum: 11 (10)
Gingrich: 9 (11)
Undecided: 7 (12)
All others: <1 (<2)
Here’s mine: Romney 34, Huntsman 22, Paul 20, Santorum 10, Gingrich 8, all others 2 or less. If that holds, it would be an ambiguous result … the convincing win that Romney has been expected to manage all along, yet a strong enough showing by some of his contenders to keep the game going. But the question is what next: South Carolina is surely not Huntsman or Paul country, and the widely-anticipated Santorum fade seems to be right on schedule. Gingrich? Perry? Or does Romney actually win SC – as is looking plausible right now – and pretty much sew it up?
to take advantage of Romney’s obvious weaknesses at this late stage in the game. If Bain, and Romney’s completely disingenuous claim to being a political outsider had been hammered a couple of months ago things might be different. Even if Huntsman pulls off a second place finish, (which I think he will) I don’t know where he goes after that. My predictions for tonight:
Romney- 35
Huntsman- 26
Paul – 18
Gingrich- 10
Santorum- 8
Which will be the first state where half the Republican voters choose Romney?
.
Romney 34%
Huntsman 20%
Paul 19%
Santorum 13%
Gingrich 10%
Bachman 1%
Perry 1%
Other 2%
Biggest upset: Bachman beats Perry. Biggest loser: Union Leader
This is Huntsman’s 15 second of fame. Will be surprised only if Santorum’s Iowa surge continues, or if Vermin Supreme tops 300 votes. (Okay, 350 max.)
Somethings I don’t know: After SC, can Mitt begin to
slitherpivot left, or must he wait until the convention?i posted this prediction on Facebook this morning:
Romney 35%
Paul 22%
Huntsman 18%
Santorum 12%
Gingrich 10%
Roemer 2%
Perry 1%
…and i agree with trickle-up that Bachmann could beat Perry also. I’m guessing Perry comes at least 7th out of 6 national candidates
Romney is going to be right on that 35% line, not able to live up to his polling levels of the last year, but still not faling below a third of the vote, so the result will be as inconclusive as Iowa
Romney 35-37
Santorum 18
Paul 17
Huntsman 12
Gingirch 5-7
Perry 3-5
Other
Romney 34%
Huntsman 23%
Paul 18%
Gingrich 12%
Santorum 10%
Field 3%
I’ll stand by my earlier statement:
Romney: 42%
Paul: 25%
Huntsman: 12%
Santorum: 8%
Gingrich: 8%
Perry: 5%
So I’ll say it’ll come out just about like that.
As for SC, there’s plenty of time for things to change dramatically. Romney’s polling ahead now, but there’s some blood in the water over the “i like to fire people” comment in combination with the GOP opponents going after him on his Bain record. Either one of those things happening alone probably wouldn’t have hurt very much, but that they’re happening together is going to hurt.
Then again, if Romney finishes 15 points ahead tonight, the news shows may bury these tough stories for Romney and focus on a big win.
Buddy Roemer will beat Rick Perry in NH.
As for the rest of the field:
Romney 32
Huntsman 21
Paul 21
Gingrich 11
Santorum 10
Roemer 2
Perry 1
Others 2
If he outpolled Rick maybe he could finally debate!
Also I think David’s predictions will likely hold, the first results seem to indicate that. Huntsman is out after this unless he wants to debate, and it would seem that those evangelical leaders like Richard Land might try and consolidate the Perry and Gingrich operations behind Santorum, but its too late, such a consolidation should’ve happened months ago. My suspicion is they didn’t want to hoping a different candidate would emerge (like Daniels or Jeb) or because they had a feeling Romney had it in the bag and didn’t want to look irrelevant to the GOP contest. Only now some of them are having second thoughts. The sad thing these results show is that McCain and Romney could have easily run as their ‘true’ moderate selves and likely won the nomination and been better general election candidates. Lucky for us, Romney flip flopped on abortion and gay rights years ago, can’t credibly flip back, and he is running as Thurston Howell in a blue collar year.