OK, so this result is obviously not as encouraging as the last couple of polls we’ve seen. It’s so dramatically out of line with other polls that I do have to wonder whether it’s an outlier, and yet Suffolk’s accuracy in recent MA races has been impressive, so it would be a mistake to discount it.
In any event, the message is clear: this race has a long, long way to go, and nobody had better get comfortable.
Please share widely!
n/t
or are you just baiting?
Because they want what is best for Massachusetts. Thus, they are thankful that this poll will shake her supporters out of any over-confident lethargy they may have developed as a result of earlier polls.
their prediction of who’ll turn out.
My guess is Suffolk has a different idea of who’s going to turn out than everyone else. Personally, if other pollsters are being kinder regarding a high Democratic turnout on election day, I think they’re going to be closer to the mark; it’ll be a Presidential election and we haven’t seen motivation by Mass Democrats like this since Deval Patrick first ran for Governor. (Let’s also not forget that Suffolk was *wildly* off the mark in that election from beginning to end.)
This poll was taken before Brown announced support for the Blunt Bill and then denied on Jim Broude’s show that it would ban all kinds of medical procedures. Let’s see how that works out for him.
there’s much work to be done. It’s also a reminder that in many ways, the campaign against Scott Brown hasn’t started. According to the poll, a hell of a lot of people don’t know much and/or are undecided.
I know one thing: every Democrat I talk to is excited about Elizabeth Warren and in my town, we’ve got people coming out of the woodwork to work for her.
Pay attention to the message! The Suffolk poll is a reputable and clear indicator of where voters stand TODAY. Accept it as a good to excellent gauge of where Warren stands today (and a cautionary message to those who would like to believe otherwise because she has gotten so much positive assistance from the Globe and other media outlets and Dem. establishment).
Mark-bail: you are right, active Dems are wildly supportive of Warren. But, it’s Independents who decide who the US Senator will be.
The lesson of this poll is NOT in the horse race numbers (they are not so important right now)…PAY ATTENTION to the crosstab numbers!!
From the Suffolk poll as reported on Suffolk University website:
MAYBE BROWN’S VICTORY HAD LESS TO DO WITH MARTHA COAKLEY AND MORE TO DO WITH MASS. INDEPENDENT VOTERS THAN ANYONE WANTED TO ADMIT!
They waited until the 14th question to ask the head to head, and immediately prior to asking it, asked leading questions about both candidates that would leave listeners to think Warren is inexperienced and Brown is a leader of the Senate.
Just saying.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/17/1065827/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-2-17#20120217081241
David Paleologus is a respected and capable pollster. He does not have an axe to grind in this race, his objective is to get an accurate assessment of where voters stand and what they care about. Rest assured, he was not juggling question orders to get a desired or slanted outcome. he does not care who comes out ahead, he cares that it is accurate. Ryan, take the results for what they are worth, trying to diminish the pollster does not change the facts that this poll revealed. If you go to Suffolk University website you can usually get the order of questions and crosstabs once they have been reported, I believe.
is immaterial. That was likely the result.
Believe me, I’m not taking this or any race for granted. I’m just pointing out that there’s evidence that exists which helps explain why this poll is an outlier.
Because as I recall the BMG posts have been:
1. Warren & Brown close
2. Warren leading Brown by a surprising amount
3. Warren & Brown close
4. (This one) Brown leading Warren
The last post here at BMG went from 1 to 3 without mentioning 2 (which was December I think), which masked the possible conclusion that Warren had stalled or was losing ground. This poll goes with likely voters, and generally this is considered a more accurate population to sample.
Unenrolleds in MA can be cleaved down – a chunk always vote D, a larger chunck always vote R. This is how when the Republicans put out a total nobody (Kerry vs. Beatty) they still get 30+%. However the remaining portion is enough to swing a statewide election. What Warren has to worry about it that a lot of these folks don’t like Obama.
I don’t think all these minor (for many people) issues will change the minds of that group, unless they can be use to paint Brown in some negative way. They could very well be voting for the “nice good looking guy vs. the professor lady”
This is why it’s key for Brown to have a decent Presidential candidate.
(I realize my title might sound sarcastic – don’t mean it to.) Of those currently in the race, could it be anybody besides Romney? Somebody who’s not in the race now?
maybe the goofy radio spots, highlighting his general likeability. Could be something like that. But can’t argue with the results.
I think Brown is solid now in his image as an “independent.” He can plausibly point to bipartisan votes. Elizabeth needs to fight on that ground as well – say that she’s independent of the special interests – and show that she could stand up to Democratic orthodoxy as well. Maybe she takes on Chuck Schumer – maybe she takes on the tort lobby. And definitely she needs to attack his strength – define him as dependent on the Koch brothers.
Motivate activists to work harder. Nothing does that than a scary poll.
Brown is still under the safe-50%. LET’S WORK IT.
If you really want to beat Brown, follow what Marisa DeFranco is doing: you won’t beat a likeable person like Brown by running these petty little comments here but by stressing the actual strengths of your own candidate. Of course, in this regard Marisa is the better (and more attractive) opponent.
I think this poll is an accurate picture of where the race is now (8 months before the election). Warren has been focusing on the Democratic base (as she should). These are the people that will hold signs, volunteer, phone bank, canvass, hold house parties etc.
She has been doing a great job with this in my opinion. Many Democrats are very enthusiastic about her candidacy.
Brown cannot possibly win an election in this state by focusing solely on the Republican base (that base being small enough to fit in a large auditorium.) He has been focused on Unenrolled’s from day 1 and that strategy has worked to this point (as the numbers in the Suffolk poll shows.)
As we go into Spring I think its safe to assume that Warren will have the base locked up (no offense to DeFranco and King) and she can focus more on Unenrolled’s. Brown does not own them and I believe that once they get to know Warren and what she stands for they will like her more and she will be more competitive with that constituency.
And also I would like to point out that Suffolk was one of the first polls to show Brown leading Coakley in the run up to the election.
http://www.suffolk.edu/research/39986.html
Her lead in the earlier poll was narrow, correct? Three or four point? Now his lead is wide, if this is accurate.
I agree that this is a good early warning (still only February 17), but it’s a real warning. Jumpball.
It seems like the “guts” of the poll check out pretty well — independents are a tad high at 52% of respondents, but it’s pretty close to normal. It’s possible that the sample just happened to be a bit more Republican-leaning than others, which we’ll know when the general election numbers are released tonight.
Either way, though, it shows that this race remains a tough one. Now, if the Republicans decided to nominate Santorum, then that would be bad for Brown. But given that Brown still has an “independent” image and plenty of money, it’s still an uphill battle to knock of the incumbent.
almost no one wants to admit it, but it cuts across party lines. If you don’t believe me ask Governor Jane Swift, Governor Shannon O’Brien, Governor Kerry Healey and Senator Martha Coakley.
You can outwit the glass ceiling, bust thru it by main strength but if you ignore it, you are done IMHO.
So count on polling volatility in this race…
Just sayin’
Elias
How quickly they forget!
constructed with bad campaigns.
Shannon O’Brien ran a great primary campaign that included re-activating moribund DTC’s like my own; her general election campaign sucked; and she performed poorly as a candidate.
Martha Coakley was ordained and proceeded to be a terrible candidate as well.
And Kerry Healey’s campaign.
I believe in sexism, but there’s a hell of pattern here.
male or female, usually ran a poor campaign…at least not as good a campaign as their winning opponent. Bad campaigns are run by both males and females, it’s not a gender thing.
have a failure to communicate: every time I post a comment I get some sort of schoolmarmish caution or correction from you.
I can see how my comment was unclear here, so let me state for the record: these candidates lost because they had bad campaigns. Their gender may have had something to do with it, but their campaigns were awful. Shannon’s campaign had great GOTV for the primary; they had almost none for the general election. She also blew it in the media by attacking Romney too strongly. The weaknesses of Coakley’s campaign(ing) need no elaboration. Kerry Healey’s dog-whistling significantly contributed to her losing the race.
I wasn’t suggesting that women run bad campaigns, thank you. Elizabeth Warren’s campaign, in spite of complaints on BMG, is going well.
But it hasn’t started yet.
None of poll questions show what people actually know about Scott Brown and the job he’s doing or know much about Elizabeth Warren.
Suffolk’s “first words that come to mind” question show 26% of respondents unable to come up with anything about Brown and 38% unable to come up with anything about Warren.
Similarly, thirty-seven percent of respondents either don’t know or have an opinion of Warren; for Brown, 20% had no opinion or hadn’t heard of him. In other words, there’s still a lot of defining to go on.
Brown has advantages in money and incumbency. Warren has an advantage in being a Democrat, which gives her 35% of the electorate; all she needs is 16% out of the 52% of unenrolled voters to win. As a Democrat, she’ll also benefit from a superior Get Out The Vote operation. I’m sure the GOP has GOTV, but their party is 1/3 the size of the Democratic Party and their operation proportionately smaller.
First and foremost, polls like these are snapshots. Not to knock the Suffolk pollsters, but it does seem that they goofed this one. Moreover, we don’t know if this was a landline-only polls. That can make a big difference. Not to mention, accuracy of Mass races notwithstanding, Suffolk is only about 48& accurate overall according to Fivethirtyeight.
I would also add that Republicans are telling Politico, a friendly publication to them that they don’t believe it either. Other key detail that should give Warren supporters hope (if prod them to work harder too), Warren has much lower recognition than Brown.
She had a higher undecided rate than Brown!
…and Brown only leads the Deserve a second chance column by 6.
UMass poll last night, I noticed they did stuff I don’t quite understand: they weighted the poll. I don’t think Suffolk did this, but here’s what UMass did:
UMass is also using the YouGov frame:
Methodologically, I suppose this is an interesting thing to do. Time will tell if it works.
Did anyone notice that the poll only included responses from 25 African Americans? There were 600 Massachusetts residents polled. Likely Voters only. But only 25 African American responses. Is that in line with voter demographics in Mass? And also, polling only Likely Voters. The only people who are 100% sure they will vote are older people. Senior citizens and retirees. These are our most Conservative citizens out there. This is what Scott Rasmussen does in his polls (Rasmussen Reports). His polls always favor Republican voters by large amounts. Scott Rasmussen has said himself that this is why he gets the results he gets. Because he only polls likely voters. An his accuracy rate is one of the poorest. Studies have shown that polls using only likely voters tend to favor Republican Candidates. Quinnipiac has the most accurate polls. They poll Registered Voters, not likely voters. Also the Suffolk poll overrepresented Independents, alot of whom are “Closeted Republicans” here in Massachusetts.