Any thoughts on this new poll out by Massinc Polling? It doesn’t have a head to head with Brown, but shows Warren’s Fav/unfav are 33%/ 18% in January - pretty close to the 32% / 14% rating she had in another poll by MassInc in October.
Two polls by UMass and the Herald put it in more context: Favorable/Unfavorables UMass September: 30% / 9% MassInc October: 32% / 14% UMass December: 34% / 27% MassInc January: 33% / 18% So, her favorables have moved only slightly, dancing around the low 30s, over the past 5 months.
I guess my fear is that the hype around her in many progressive circles isn't translating to the mainstream. We still have months to go, but I would have thought she would have better name recognition by now. Does anyone else have insight into these numbers? Any recent head-to-head polls with Brown or other polls out there that support/contradict the apparent trend?
Please share widely!
Playing to a sold out house of supporters won’t win this one. And frankly, neither will playing it safe and scripted.
Building support in her base – her volunteer organization and campaign donors. That ground work wil be needed as the race heats up
Which makes perfect sense, I think.
Warren grabbed an initial burst of support from those of us who already know that we need FDR Democrats in government, and this groundswell pretty well took all of her Democratic opponents out of the race.
Now she’s biding her time lest she peak too early. So she won’t be gaining support, but she’ll still be a relatively fresh face when the battle against Brown starts in earnest, closer to November. Then she’ll have to educate the other two-thirds of the electorate that we need to put FDR Democrats in office – I don’t think that will be an uphill struggle after we’ve seen what the alternatives are for the last 30 years.
It’s too early for a full-court press, either for her or against Brown. Most voters aren’t focused on the race yet, and there’s no way to force them to get engaged in an election that is, after all, 9 months away. To me, she seems to be doing pretty much what she needs to do at the moment.
uninsightful.
Thirty-six percent of the electorate were registered Democrats in 2010. Eleven percent were registered Republican. Without cross-tabs on party affiliation or likely voters, my guess is that Warren’s numbers reflect Democratic voters (33%) and Republican voters and conservative leaning unenrolled voters (18%). It’s probably not that simple, but the vast majority of the electorate isn’t thinking about the senate campaign.
In the ULowell poll, which is almost 2 months old, 23% of respondents had not heard of her. 15% were undecided. Her favorable number is again approximate to Democratic Party registration.
If this election breaks down like most, Democrats will represent 36% of voters and will support Warren. The 11% of Republicans will support Brown. That leaves 53% of voters to fight over. If Warren takes 15 or 16 percent of that 53%, Brown loses.
It’s a single poll with no head-to-head more than nine months before an election. What does this count for? At this point, Michele Bachmann was a lock to win the Republican presidential nod.
The only way to raise one’s favorables is to raise one’s name recognition, which seems kinda pointless this far out. Instead, she’s having organizational meeting on top of organizational meeting (three in oft-forgotten Plymouth County this month alone). I’m not ready to pull down the red lever yet.