Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Warren up in latest poll, but what effect the presidential race?

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Talking Points Memo has a nifty graph showing the polling history on Warren v. Brown. (I can’t get the embed to work.) Warren is up by 3 points in the latest WBUR poll.

Gotta believe that the news is even better for Warren, as she’ll be downticket of Obama, who will undoubtedly win Massachusetts by 15%, if not the 21.3% margin he had over McCain in 2008. What’s that worth? Another 3%?

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  1. are some of the numbers in the presidential race. Obama’s sports a solid 60/30 favorable/unfavorable split, with Romney at 39/46. Obama beats Romney by the same 21% he beat McCain by — 55%-34%.

    But what is quite amusing is Newt Gingrich’s numbers. His favorable rating is 9% — NINE percent — with 72% unfavorable. Obama would beat him 66%-19% (!).

    Needless to say, if Gingrich was miraculously the GOP nominee, Scott Brown might lose by 20.

  2. Some independent voters will act in the other direction — and ticket split. I.e., Vote obama b/c of likability, vote against a D in senate race b/c frustrated with obama job performance.

    Here’s some data:

    One approach to the data analyzes the extent to which states produce different outcomes in races for president and Senate (or House).

    A study of 800 presidential-year Senate contests during the last century, undertaken by the Humphrey School of Public Affairs, revealed that on average, 30 percent of races produced winners of opposite parties.

    So whether Obama has coattails for MA independents seems possible; but also plausible he actually exerts some drag on Warren and helps Brown.

    • The One Party argument is very powerful, especially given Beacon Hill’s disastrous record of corruption (Three Speakers in a row? Come on, guys). Warren is definitely the underdog, no matter what the polls say, and if she wins will pull off a big upset.

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