First of all, if you haven’t seen the Obama campaign’s new ad, watch it now. It’s one of the most effective ads I’ve seen in a while.
Now, why is this ad so good? In part, of course, because Romney is a terrible singer, and his off-key rendition of “America the Beautiful” (subtly and ingeniously manipulated by the ad’s makers) serves as a brilliant metaphor for his out-of-tune, out-of-touch prescriptions for what ails America. Also, the ad’s tag line is fabulous: “Mitt Romney’s not the solution. He’s the problem.” Simple, blunt, and gets at exactly what is in the back of a lot of voters’ minds. (What is he so worried about with his tax returns? Why won’t he just release them? If he was still CEO at Bain, isn’t he at least responsible for what happened during those years? Does he even care that some people lost their jobs when Bain moved in? Etc.) People in the movie business are calling this ad the best they’ve ever seen.
And here, for comic relief, is Romney advisor Kevin Madden on “Face the Nation” this weekend, expressing fauxtrage over the ad while, incredibly, screwing up the name of the song that Romney butchers. It’s “America the Beautiful,” you idiot.
Mr. Lynne says
… interesting insight into the corner Mitt is in.
Also, he indicates that,..
John Tehan says
Last Friday, Dan (who is allegedly from Waltham) posted that we would be back to Seamus stories today, but here we are, still talking about Bain! Doesn’t anyone have a new limerick about Seamus so Dan won’t have a sad?
David says
The Bain business is not going away – in fact, it is getting worse. David Corn, who has been on this from the get-go, has now found contradictions between two of Romney’s sworn statements, leading Andrew Sullivan to declare that Romney has “perjured himself.” And Josh Marshall has a thoughtful take on why this story matters a lot, and will be a big problem for Romney through election day.
Mr. Lynne says
HR's Kevin says
The most important aspect of this is that Romney has now fallen into the trap of overly disowning Bain in order to disassociate himself from anything bad that may have occured. For Romney to demand an apology for being associated with Bain during 2000-2002 makes Bain seem worse than it probably was, and puts a stain on the name; that’s not going to help him at all when he tries to point to his experience at Bain prior to that as a positive thing. Romney has really blundered in his handling of this.
centralmassdad says
is absolutely one of the more interesting writers around, specifically because he lacks a “whoa, wait a minute here” filter. But that also means he is unusually prone to wild overstatement.
johnd says
to the MSM being in the tank with Obama. Republicans, like Dan, should know that anything negative about Romney will be headlined by the liberal media while Obama’s bad news will be found on page 8 of section B.
Most Americans do not care about this stuff, they care about jobs, their 401K, taxes… Larry O’Donnell is on this story like Sean Hannity on a Rev Jeremiah Wright. MSNBC water carriers for Obama.
HR's Kevin says
because now there is a taint on the name “Bain” that is probably not going to disappear. With Romney disowning Bain and disowning his primary accomplishment as Governor (Romneycare), what experience is he going to run on? The Olympics?
danfromwaltham says
Once the poll numbers drop. People are angry and Obama and Co. thinks this is a joke.
HR's Kevin says
Some people are angry with Obama and will ignore this, but those people have already made up their minds and really don’t matter for the purpose of this discussion. If most people were in this category, the polls would already reflect that. However, the polls clearly show that more people find Obama to be trustworthy than Romney, and I don’t think that is going to be changing in Romney’s favor.
Obama has already been subjected to every possible negative attack in the last four years but Romney’s vulnerabilities have only been partially tested to date. It seems unlikely that the polls are going to swing wildly in his favor.
Mark L. Bail says
If you can’t win an argument in the present, take out your crystal ball and predict your victory in the future.
danfromwaltham says
Denial is not a river in Egypt.
whosmindingdemint says
are moving against Willard
danfromwaltham says
Red herring, Dan. DFTT. Or my favorite posts go something like “Bob and Dave, please control Danfromwaltham, he is a meanie and we need to limit his posts to only one per day because he doesn’t live in Jonestown like the rest of us”.
johnd says
What experience did Obama have?
HR's Kevin says
We all know he was a Senator before that, but I don’t think voters are going to go back and look at his record before becoming President this time around.
As I said regarding Romney, it is going to be hard for him to talk about his experience as Governor without talking about “Romneycare”.
The problem is not that Romney doesn’t have experience, but that he has repudiated so much of it.
laurenceglavin says
I caught that mistake Sunday too, but the most fun I had while watching the Sunday morning gabfests (all of them thanx to DVR and repeats of “Meet the Press” on MSNBC and “Fox News Sunday”, originally broadcast on the Fox BROADCAST network and repeated on the Fox Right-Wing Propaganda Network on cable) came during the discussion period on ABC-TV’s “This Week” with Mister Alexandra Wentworth. James Carville was a guest on ABC because he was hustling his new book “It’s the Middle Class, Stupid” so I guess it was ok with CNN if he appeared on the competition. At the exact moment that the camera was focused on Mr. Carville, the chyron below displayed: “CAMPAIGN GETS UGLY”. OK, Mr. Carville may be no Brad Pitt, or ME for that matter, but that seemed unkind.
Christopher says
Can’t figure out what ICYMI stands for – please advise.
David says
.
Jasiu says
When befuddled by an Internet acronym, Google usually displays the answer before I can even finish typing the whole thing.
jconway says
Best negative ad since “Daisy” in 64′ or “Bear” in 84′. Very effective sound bites, images, and deception to let voters know why Romney is a threat to our economic security. Also the Obama ad “Go” is a great positive ad that really encapsulates the basic argument: Osama dead, GM alive, Obama works hard and cares about you. This is definitely the sharpest sound bite Democratic campaign in a long time, unafraid to fight fire with fire. The Romney campaign really does bare significant resemblances to Kerry’s down to the rich guy v regular guy narrative, the flip flopping, inconsistent and disorganized messaging, charisma free candidate and the inability to respond to attacks. This ad gas gone viral and is dominating news cycles.
johnd says
but wait, did you hear this…
Romney advisor Kevin Madden on “Face the Nation” this weekend, expressing fauxtrage over the ad while, incredibly, screwing up the name of the song that Romney butchers. It’s “America the Beautiful,” you idiot.
That’s it, I’ll take 8+% unemployment for 4 more years rather than have a Romney worker who messes up a song title… BTW, how did Obama MISpronounce Navy Corpsman again… Silly I know, but no more sillier than a Romney worker making a mistake… at least it was just a worker and not Romney himself.
danfromwaltham says
And the board wil be lit up with comments like “Mitt is running a racist ad” or Republicans hate minorities and going for the racist vote.
Did you hear Romney said Obamacare at the NAACP, what a racist.
And you John, you want voter ID, that makes you……..A RACIST!!!!!!!!
johnk says
of the economy. But 28 straight months of private sector job growth is a good start. I find it funny that Republicans are complaining about an economy that’s growing jobs. When you guys were in charges 100s of thousands of jobs were lost each month and you. ahem, “fiscal conservatives” had a freakin’ surplus when you started.
If you were at a job and the person who completed screwed up the company complained that the person who replaced him who had a positive impact for over two straight years wasn’t good enough, they would laugh you out of the building.
SomervilleTom says
Great graphic, well and succinctly summarized.
John Tehan says
I agree with Tom, six sixes for you!
danfromwaltham says
Can it be said Obama wrote $5 Trilion in hot checks to achieve those numbers?
SomervilleTom says
Perhaps even our self-proclaimed Walthamite appears to be grasping the reason why “austerity” is a failed prescription for our nearly-catatonic economy.
NO, those are not “hot checks”. Unlike individuals and states, the federal government DOES have the authority to run a deficit. There is no economic requirement for the entity that creates money to balance its budget. The US learned in the Great Recovery that Keynesian economics works. The US learned in 1937 that premature budget-balancing chokes off a nascent recovery, and can send the patient into back into coma.
The GOP, in its fervor to embrace its Gilded Era forbears, reject FDR, and destroy the Obama administration, has feverishly sought to deny the reality of this Keynesian principle. It’s much ballyhooed economic prowess nearly killed the patient in 2008, and the same voodoo practitioners now — incredibly — want to apply the same “medicine” now.
The above graph shows that what the present administration is doing is working. It shows that those “hot checks” that our Walthamite refers to turned the tide (never mind that the bulk of that five trillion was deficit spending of the GOP during the prior administration).
Yes, Danny, it can be said that President Obama wisely used deficit spending to accomplish 28 consecutive months of private job growth.
danfromwaltham says
came from LLoyd Bentsen back in 1988 describing the boom in the 80’s. Is what you are telling me the sky is the limit with federal deficits? I believe it’s a huge problem.
Looking at the graph, the last few months of new jobs appears to be shrinking. Me thinks this is not the expected trend lines. Is it true Obama & Co. promised us unemployment under 7% by this time? And you want me to believe Obamacare is revenue neutral, as they claim.
Iceberg, straight ahead!!! Please, someone wake up Capt. Barack Edward Smith Obama.
whosmindingdemint says
So Dan which is it that you want: austerity or job growth? Choose one.
danfromwaltham says
Apparently we should run $5 Trilion annual deficits to get everyone working.
Let’s make America more attractive to businesses. Lower the corp tax rate, retook at the free trade screwings we took, implement single payer so employers are not responsible for health care costs and can focus on their clients. Just a thought.
whosmindingdemint says
since the Age of Reagan and look where we are. Clinton raised them and we had tremendous economic growth and job creation, even under NAFTA.
Your single-payer solution sounds like an expansion of Guv’mnt Dan.
So Dan, do you want to expand the ranks of the unemployed and underemployed so that business gets another tax break or do you want to put people back to work spending their wages on the goods and services that business provides and creating a real economy
danfromwaltham says
Govt needs to focus on their mission and that is it. For example, no need to fund Big Bird or Solyndra.
I have read we have the highest corp. tax rate in the world. If true, not good. I disagree with taxing those who earn high wages even more and more helps job creation. If you are telling me an economic stimulus package is giving money to people who can’t find work so they can buy things, in the long run, is a terrible idea.
SomervilleTom says
You (correctly) read the part about tax rates. You forgot to read the part that talks about what actually gets collected.
The US actually collects the among the lowest corporate taxes (as a percentage of GDP) of the world — only France and Germany collect less.
If low corporate taxes caused economic growth, the US would have the strongest economy in the world. We don’t.
HR's Kevin says
But you do realize that Bush and the Republican congress blew through money like there was no tomorrow and you can see that didn’t buy us a better economy. Yes, we are still running a deficit, and that will indeed be a problem in the long run, but Republicans have demonstrated by their actions time and time and time again that they are totally incapable of balancing a budget. The deficit is just their latest club to cut stuff they don’t like – and note that it has not stopped them at all from pushing for even more tax cuts.
Also note that if it were not for massive cuts in public sector jobs in Republican controlled states, the jobs figures would look *much* better.
whosmindingdemint says
This terrific graphic and Dan’s dumbness illustrate the point:
Austerity or job growth? Can’t have both.
Democrats made the obvious and correct choice by pursuing job growth in spite of the opposition party’s opposition.
SomervilleTom says
I call your attention to the markedly lower growth figures for June and July of 2011. Please recall that the US government hit the debt ceiling in May. The irresponsible GOP refusal to extend the debt ceiling caused an immediate decline in private sector job growth.
These clowns show themselves time and again to be irresponsible and incompetent at governing a private consumer economy.
danfromwaltham says
I dedicate this song by Jigsaw.
But did it have to stop
You’ve blown it all sky high
By telling me a lie
Without a reason why
YOU’VE BLOWN IT ALL SKY HIGH
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RXnMPrFJOP8
danfromwaltham says
When Scott Brown was elected in Jan 2010, that’s when the recovery began. Does everyone see the impact of electing Sen. Brown did for the job market?
Of course I am joking but that’s how many of you sound about Obama and his spending binge.
whosmindingdemint says
…
johnd says
the unemployment rate or how many people are out of work is what matters. If water is filling your boat at a faster rate than the water being pumped out… rate becomes irrelevant.
One view…
whosmindingdemint says
Icy Michigan?
Hi Dan!
John Tehan says
GTMA (great minds think alike)
danfromwaltham says
Makes a mockery of the presidency. Obama can’t get over 50% in Ohio, FL, or VA.
They are still pushing the outsourcing angle of Bain when the big 3, Clinton, Kennedy and Kerry pushed NAFTA across the goal line. By Fiday, both Gallup and Rasputin will have Mitt ahead in the tracking polls.
opusedge says
especially with someone as unlikeable as Romney. Regardless of whether you think he’s competent enough to be president, most people still think of him as weird, wooden and out of touch. No one is going to feel bad enough for this strange man to give him any sympathy. And the fact that his campaign appears weak will only hurt him.
This guy deserves all the trashing he is getting. After enduring his mean-spirited “leadership” for 4 years and his bad-mouthing of his “home” state after carpet-bagging his way into the governorship, the chickens have come home to roost.
Your point about the Dems pushing NAFTA is a red herring and you know it – just because the centrist Democrats sold out and joined the Republicans doesn’t mean that the Republicans would have done any differently.
danfromwaltham says
Kennedy and Kerry are centrist Dems who joined Republicans and Clinton in passing NAFTA? R u trying to be funny?
Yep, whenever I point out the hypocrisy, it is a red herring, now I know.
Mark L. Bail says
It’s also cherry-picking details. You pick a detail and pounce on it and ignore other people’s main point.
What’s the point of you indicating what you think is hypocrisy? You ignored my last comment to you. This what you do: someone attacks a Republican on something and you point out a Democrat has done. Say you’re right, and there’s hypocrisy, so what? What do you want people to think or do?
David says
😉
Bob Neer says
Why hasn’t he been in the tea leaves recently?
Poor man, RIP.
Mark L. Bail says
to John Tierney in six steps or less.
danfromwaltham says
And get rid of the riff raff in your own party before calling out the Republicans. I know it’s radical, but give it a try.
John Tehan says
Or are you finally abandoning your claimed centrism?
danfromwaltham says
Can you name any Republicans?
John Tehan says
When I lived in CT, I voted for Weicker – I liked him, he the balls to stand up to Nixon as a Republican Senator on Dan Ervin’s Watergate committee.
Which Dems did you vote for, Dan? And considering all of the lies you’ve told on this board, tell me why I should believe anything you say?
danfromwaltham says
First of all, Nixon was a great POTUS. The guy had the 1960 election stolen from him, mined and bombed Haiphong Harbor with Soviet ships being damaged, went after the enemy fleeing into safe havens, just like Obama bombing Pakistan. Nixon started the war on cancer and EPA. Faithful to,his wife, unlike JFK. Lots of good things Nixon did, too bad he protected his friends, instead of throwing them under the bus like today’s politicians.
Now, what Dems have I voted for?? My favorite of the favorite was in 1990, I voted for John Silber for governor. I love that guy, missed opportunity, would have made a great POTUS. I did vote for Obama, but don’t get me wrong. I didn’t buy the bling bling he was selling, I could not stand Palin and didn’t care for McCain. Sick,of W.mby that time as well.
Chris Gabrielli in 2006 primary, I liked him, businessman. etc. Howard Dean in 04 primary, liked his anti war message.
John Tehan says
Now answer my question – why should we believe that even a word of this is true? You’ve shown yourself to be lying liar who tells lots of lies, Dan – your dishonesty on this board is legendary. I don’t believe you for a minute.
danfromwaltham says
That is all you need to know.
John Tehan says
More like the Holy Hand Grenade Of Antioch! 1, 2, 5, 3!!
methuenprogressive says
A vicious racist and anti-Semite too.
I was going to post quotes for you to pick the “greatest”, but his language isn’t safe-at-work.
danfromwaltham says
Hereis his 1960 commercial wanting equal rights for all Americans. Listen and learn.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dAlZHfaksQM
John Tehan says
No presidential candidate has ever made a misleading campaign commercial, right Dan? How about if we listen to his actual words instead? Since video won’t embed in the comments, here’s a link – listen up, and open your eyes:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9GFPy6eO9s
SomervilleTom says
The youtube link offered by johnt001 rather succinctly captures the real Richard Nixon.
It doesn’t surprise me that you defend Richard Nixon.
danfromwaltham says
Casual talk between him and Kissinger or him and his advisors from a guy who was a WW II veteran, I am disappointed, but not shocked. I look at his actions as POTUS.
Is Jesse Jackson a racist who how he described NYC? You look for evil in people, I look at the good side of everyone.
John Tehan says
They have some terribly offensive t-shirts, but there’s one in particulat that I can now picture you wearing proudly. It has a picture of Adolph Hitler holding a rose, and the caption says:
Keep looking for everyone’s good side, Dan, that’ll carry you far…
danfromwaltham says
I believe Nixon had the first black person as an official guest stay over nIght in the White House. His name was Sammy Davis Jr
Second time, is Jesse Jackson a racist?
johnd says
Good job. But now that you’ve answered it, it’s not enough. You’re accused of being a liar. BTW, if you are lying, please chose better lies than voting for a Democrat!!! Howard Dean??? Really??? This is a great example of what Romney would face by providing more tax returns.
Some Dem schlep was on Morning Joe oday asking for more of Mitt’s tax returns. She said Kerry and others provided several years of returns and others provided a few. In all cases they provided TWO years returns. TWO does not equal a few OR several. Mitt will provide an additional year, when he’s good and ready. But that won’t shut people up, they’ll still bitch.
Mitt’s smart enough to know this and hopefully he will ignore requests like this for as long as possible.
John Tehan says
…he had 20 years’ worth of tax returns available to the public, John, see my comment here:
http://vps28478.inmotionhosting.com/~bluema24/2012/07/why-does-obama-dislike-small-business-owners-so-much/#comment-296115
Anyone who told you Kerry only made two years of returns public was lying to you – but you seem to like and admire liars, so whatever…
David says
Just to pile on, John, the “two years” claim with respect to Kerry is an out-and-out lie. No presidential candidate in modern history, with the possible exception of John McCain, has provided as few as two years of returns.
Even Republicans are desperate for Romney to release his returns in order to make the issue go away. Romney is, as usual, pissing off even the people on his side in order to further his own self-interest.
danfromwaltham says
Showed 12.3 tax rate on $5 million income. Only provided first two pages.
John Tehan says
…than she needed to release. If she ever runs for president, I’ll expect to see more.
SomervilleTom says
Seriously, John, these lies demean you. Why do you repeat them?
I get that you are a Republican. I get that you support Mitt Romney. What I don’t get how you rationalize spreading out-and-out lies, such as this one regarding John Kerry.
Is it asking too much to request that you stick to the truth?
danfromwaltham says
He was against the Iraq War at the very beginning, just like Pat Buchanan. And Dean was honest, eliminate all of the Bush tax cuts. I admire honest politicians. Don’t get me wrong, I voted for Bush over Kerry b/c both supported the war and I pegged John Edwards as a sleazeball when I first saw him.
opusedge says
you can argue your little “hypocrisy argument” all you want but the fact still remains… Romney is a strange, ruthless, unlikeable man who has painted himself into a box. This is one etch-a-sketch that he can’t easily shake away. I’m glad to finally see a Democratic campaign go on offense for a change, and it couldn’t be directed at a more deserving target. Looks like the swift-boaters might have just gotten swift-boated…
David says
is the new lingo – credit to Dave Weigel at Slate. 😀
danfromwaltham says
Why do so many act like a train seal when it comes to your beloved Democratic Party? Don’t ya think saying how one guy outsourced jobs is bad, but your very own party does the same thing, and you expect people like me to let you get away with it? Just think about it, and instead of waving Pom-Poms, push your party to make the reforms needed to save what is left of the working middle class.
opusedge says
Like there are any Republicans who give a flying @#$*! about the working class! That’s a good one! Got any other funny lines?
Thanks for making me laugh tonight.
johnd says
nt
centralmassdad says
To a great extent, this a tragedy, because there is an element of truth to the comment.
johnd says
that the majority of Republicans are not oil barons, Wall St tycoons or CEOs. It’s mush easier to talk about Republicans as the 1%ers who a lll make zillions and don’t pay our fair share of taxes.
I’m sure it’s impossible but it would interesting to know how much of the US Federal Income tax levy is paid by Republicans vs Democrats. How many of the 50% who don’t pay ANY Federal Income taxes are Democrats?
Left wing nuts constantly want to paint Republicans and rich people as callous, selfish… when in fact most of the “rich” people I know are very caring, very giving and contribute significantly to charity. They pay huge amounts of income taxes so the 50% who don’t pay can get a free ride.
whosmindingdemint says
as the 1%ers: oil barons, Wall Street tycoons, CEO’s, etc. who make zillions and don’t pay their fair share of taxes. Rich people are “nice” is meaningless. Does that mean the bottom 47% are not “nice?”
The income tax structure is supposed to be progressive, meaning tax liability increases with earnings, and as income inequality worsens, the burden falls more to the 2% because their incomes are so bloated.
And the bottom 47% do pay taxes – payroll and income. People earning $20K/ year do not pay federal income tax.
Obviously, you have a problem with that.
johnd says
Who says it is “supposed” to be?
Yes I do and I have stated that previously. I want everyone who makes anything to pay Federal Income taxes. There should be a minimum Fed Income tax so everyone has skin in the game. If someone makes $20,000 then they could pay $200 in Fed Taxes. Otherwise,why would these people care at all about taxes. Imagine the revolt from people making $20,000 and paying $200 when they read about the waste and abuse of their tax dollars. Maybe they would finally care about taxes. We should ALL pay into the system.
whosmindingdemint says
I will respond to this troll.
First, 50% of the country does not make 20K/yr or less – yet – so right off the bat you don’t know what you are talking about.
Second, I will insist that those folks making near poverty level wages pay taxes the day after GE pays taxes.
The income tax structure is designed to be a progressive tax, even though it is so larded with loopholes that it may be unrecognizable. But don’t take my word for it:
Adam Smith-
The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor…The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess…It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more in that proportion.
johnk says
who thinks that a majority of republicans are oil barrons? or even wealthy for that matter. I certainly don’t.
I kind of picture many with very limited exposure to the world we live in, selfishness as a personality trait (even to the detriment of the country) or cynical bastards. 🙂
johnd says
Maybe they are living in a fantasy world.
Why would you think Republicans have limited exposure to the world, we are side by side across the country in every city, town living in house, shacks, apartments….
whosmindingdemint says
across this great land…every village and farm…beneath the spreading oak…smithy in my soul…like minded people…roll on Columbia, roll on…Merika! Oh the humanity I think I’m going to cry…
SomervilleTom says
The analysis has been done at the state level, and the “red” states who most loudly proclaim their desire for “austerity” and “balanced budget” are the states who receive far more in federal funds than they contribute in taxes — while the “blue” states contribute more than they receive.
I wrote a diary about this just about a year ago, and the situation remains unchanged. For example, the graph below is from an analysis I posted then.
Please note how the red (Republican) states cluster to towards the top right, while the blue (Democratic) states cluster towards the bottom left. The vertical axis is the John McCain margin in the 2008 election; the horizontal axis is the ratio of federal spending to taxes.
I find it fascinating that states like Montana who proudly proclaim how little they tax happily collect tax receipts from those who DO pay.
Regarding the drivel about the “50% who don’t pay any federal income taxes”, it doesn’t sound to me as though johnd has talked to many of them — most would love to be in a position where they earned enough income to have a federal income tax obligation (most still pay payroll taxes, state income and sales taxes, gas taxes, and so on). Implicit in the cruel narrative that johnd offers is the suggestion that these are “free loaders”.
About half of Americans live below or one paycheck away from the poverty level — this while America is the wealthiest nation in human history. In my view, calling these people (who USED to be the middle class) free loaders is — well — “callous” and “selfish”.
johnd says
I define free loaders as people who don’t contribute t something but benefit from it. Like going to dinner and ordering food but sticking someone else with the bill. And of course when the guy who gets stuck with the bill com pains he gets painted as selfish.
SomervilleTom says
The citizens of Montana proudly boast of how low their taxes are. They accept half again as much federal aid as they contribute. To use your analogy, they order the appetizer, the dessert, and two extra glasses of wine while insisting that an equal split is “fair”.
I think the plot directly answers your complaint — I think you simply don’t like the answer.
danfromwaltham says
I see a bunch of red states that actually produce things that we need like oil, gas, food, etc. then I see a bunch of blue states that produce lots of hot air and push lots of paper pushing, mouse clicking jobs.
Christopher says
I didn’t realize a long-dead Russian faith healer had been reincarnated as an American presidential pollster!
BTW, Obama is ahead in MI, OH, and VA, even outside the margin in the last two.
danfromwaltham says
You like that one? Everyone knows it is Rasmussen tracking poll. Did you see the latest polls. All 2pts or so, besides MI.