I have to admit, I have not canvassed everywhere and I am no less convinced that turnout will define this Senate election. However, as I reflect back on the places where I have canvassed, I cannot help, but wonder if there is some disconnect between the polling and reality.
Now I think it is fair to say that Warren will carry much if not all of Western Massachusetts population centers, Westfield being a notable exception. Those numbers may not be as strong as the Brookline-Newton-Cambridge vote-belt, but it will be pretty solid. However, two areas are fertile ground for Brown that I have found him to have minimal support are in Springfield’s best-off neighborhoods and in East Longmeadow.
There were certainly “not sure”s and at least one person who made the academics don’t know the real world comment, but the support was pretty solid. There were even a few who were one-time Brown voters going Warren this time. These are areas Brown needs to win and so far, he doesn’t appear to be winning them. He may win a place like East Longmeadow, but he should be winning it by a bigger margin than canvassing seems to suggest.
Now I am not suggesting that a change in tactics for Warren in terms of media may or may not be necessary. It is clear that greater emphasis on his record is needed and the time for introductions is over. However, I have to look at these polls, even from PPP, whom I greatly respect (I don’t consider them partisan, even though they work for Dems, they’re numbers are usually right), and wonder if we’re missing something.
I’ll mention as an example, the minority populations who may not getting scooped up in these surveys effectively. There are lots of people who may not answer a poll question and so those that do can distort the sample. Maybe Brown voters are more eager to answer a poll. Not to mention, the switch to a likely voter model is a huge driver in this situation. Just speculating, but how do these voter models contemplate the difference between a presidential election and a gubernatorial one.
I don’t know. I fret like any Democrat, but then again, Dems fret about almost everything it seems. However, I always feel better after canvassing. Maybe the silent majorities are moving more than the polls can detect. I don’t know and I guess we won’t know until November.
Campaigns target their canvass universes based on vote history and party ID. Even if there are independents on your list they are often those who have faithfully pulled Democratic ballots at primary elections. I just canvassed today in Lowell which Brown won, so we did find an occasional supporter of his, but keep in mind what you are canvassing is not a representative polling sample.
And I agree. I just feel like more of these people would need to be uneasy about Warren or for Brown outright in order to fit the polling. Lowell may be a better example, because although (I think) Brown won a few Springfield precincts, on the whole, he lost the city.
think the break will be towards Brown. Polling is picking this up but not the canvassing. I would say that I have seen your results as well when canvassing, but I also expect the “not sures” to vote for Brown (using the “do you want to fire him?” logic) at least given all the factors today.
Warren’s campaign is now working the whole “hey Brown’s a Republican and Republicans suck” line, and not sure that will change the minds of the “not sure.” If you already think Republicans hate women, etc then you’re not voting for Brown, and would probably tell a canvasser that.