I just scrolled though the tables on the recently Globe/UNH poll, which can be found here, and some things jumped out. Much of this will not be a surprise, and I don’t want to rely too much on one poll (particularly one with only 502 respondents), but it is instructive nonetheless.
There are voters out there for Warren to reach
It is clear that a Democratic brand advantage in Massachusetts is helping Warren. Thanks to a 67-12 advantage among self-identified Democrats, Warren he leads overall in the poll (43-38) despite losing 88-4 among self-identified Republicans (no shock) and 45-23 among unenrolled voters (worse than I would have expected).
There were about 100 respondents registered as unenrolled but self-identifying as Democratic, and 65 self-identifying as Republican. Notably, virtually all of these Republican-leaning unenrolled are for Brown. He does much better (88-4) among self-identified Republicans, including both registered and unenrolled, than among registered Republican alone (80-12). Warren’s support is virtually unchanged and actually drops a bit (69-12 vs 67-12) when unenrolled voters who identify as Democrats are added to the registered Democrats.
Much more importantly,19% of self-identified Democrats and 20% of Obama supporters are still undecided in the Senate race. Along with 32% of independents and 37% of those undecided in the presidential race. It’s clear Warren has some work to do swaying undecided Democrats/Obama supporters to her side, but also clear people are drifting into her camp.
Brown’s support slightly more solid
Brown’s supporters are 90% sure of their vote, 4% leaning. Warren’s are 84% sure, 9% leaning.
But this may show momentum toward Warren as the previously undecided work toward a choice. She is winning big with those leaning toward a candidate but not quite committed, a whopping 59-23. That suggests Warren appeals to those voters but has some work to do to close the sale.
Importantly, however, 71% of respondents are sure who they’re voting for and Warren leads in leads that group, 51-48. That is a good sign for her.
Warren is getting killed on likeability issues
Personally I don’t get this. I like Elizabeth Warren a lot and, especially now, I do not like Scott Brown. But he is winning very big on likeability (58-27). Brown wins likeability even among self-identified Democrats (43-42), and kills her among independents (66-18) and self-identified Republicans (83-2). Bad news: Warren is only up 55-31 on likeability among her own supporters and is getting crushed (56-15) among the undecided. Good news: It’s clear voters aren’t basing their votes exclusively on likeability.
Warren has a slight lead (47-42) on “Which candidate better understands people like you?” but again, has weaker support among Dems (74-19) than Brown has among GOP (83-4), and is losing by a small margin among the undecided (37-32).
This suggests many people who like Brown better still think Warren understands them better. It’s encouraging if the election is not a popularity contest, but I don’t know what she can do to improve the likeability numbers. She also comes out slightly behind on being a strong leader (47-37, and 43-25 among undecideds). As a woman,she may have trouble simultaneously proving she’s a strong leader and improving likeability. I’d hate to think people are sexist, consciously or not, but a 30-point gap on likeability is just bizarre to me.
Warren has higher support among those who are “extremely interested” in the election
94% of Warren supporters are either “extremely interested” or “very interested,” as compared to 90% of Brown supporters. Warren’s supporters, however, break down 59% “extremely, “35% very” while Brown’s are 48% “extremely,” 42% “very.” Perhaps unsurprisingly, undecided voters show somewhat lower interest.
More importantly, Warren leads by 50-36 among those “extremely interested,” Brown leads slightly (42-39) among those “very interested,” and Brown is up by 6 (33-27) among those “somewhat/not very interested,” with 37% of them still undecided.
There are two possibilities here: (1) people predisposed to Warren happen to be more interested; (2) the more people tune into the race, the more they support Warren. One caveat here (with the caveat within a caveat that the sample size is tiny, 52 people): Her unfavorable is at 38% among those “somewhat/not very interested,” Brown’s only 17%.
The same trend is present in the favorability numbers. Brown’s favorability rating is 50% among people “extremely interested” in the election, and higher (57% and 56%) among those “very interested” and “somewhat/not very interested. Warren’s favorability rating is 58% among those “extremely interested,” 50% among those “very interested,” and only 40% among those “somewhat/not very interested.”
Warren doing OK with older voters
In the Presidential race Obama has been narrowing a gap among senior citizens. In this poll, Warren leads among those 65+ (46-36) as well as those 18 to 34 (48-29). Brown is winning, not by much, in the 35 to 49 (45-38) and 50 to 64 (41-39) age groups. Youth turnout is key, but it’s a good sign that Warren is doing well among seniors. who tend to have higher turnout. She even does better among seniors on likeability and leadership than she does among those 35 to 64.
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Again, just one small poll, but it shows some opportunities and dangers.
