There are three groups of Massachusetts voters:
- Those that are going to vote for Obama and Warren
- Those that are going to vote for Romney and Brown
- Those that are going to vote for Obama and Brown
(Theoretically, there are voters who will vote for Romney and Warren, but that probably is the sum total of Bain Capital alumni who attended Harvard Law and liked Professor Warren.)
Given that group one is significantly larger than group two and group one and three together are overwhelming larger than group two (latest polls show Obama has a state advantage of 25% points), Brown only wins if he gets a substantial number of folks to join group three.
So far, nothing that any BMG reader doesn’t know by now.
Unsolicited advice: Warren should appeal directly to potential ticket-splitters. Here’s the outline:
- We face a number of big problems in the country:
- Still struggling economy
- Huge unemployment
- Continued housing problems/crisis
- Still looming healthcare issues
- Threat of global warming
- Immigration
- &c.
- For good or for bad, the two parties are internally consistent and polarized*
- Don’t agree on the nature of the problem
- Certainly don’t agree on the solutions
- A Democratic president and a Republican senate do not lead to a middle ground, the lead to deadlock
- Problems get left unanswered
- Allowing one party to lead is more important than letting the other party check progress
- Let somebody govern
- If you like the Republican take on problems and their answers, vote Romney/Brown
- Otherwise, vote Obama/Warren
- Don’t waste your vote
Warren treads around the perimeter of this argument: a vote for Brown gets you Inhofe. And, others have suggested she more explicitly tie herself to Obama: if you like Obama, then help him. I’m suggesting yet another step: rethink what ticket splitting accomplishes. Challenge the ticket-splitters to choose a governing philosophy they prefer and give it wings.
* I think for good, but that’s a different post.
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