2 Paths for Obama Squeaker

Wow, this is tight.  BMGers who’ve argued Mitt has no chance to be president — well, he’s got more than a chance.  He’s at 41% on intrade.

Notwithstanding David’s citing of the 48-40 debate scoring, there was a pretty scary stat in that Obama “win.”  From Huffpo:

 

According to a CNN/ORC snap poll Obama won the debate 48 percent to 40 percent. He also had a 51 percent to 46 percent edge on leadership. But the two were tied on likeability.   Two months ago, Obama led Romney on likeability by 20 points. To be even on likeability and nearly even on the leadership attribute is a huge boost for Romney.

….For a sitting president to go on the attack as President Obama did last night suggests that this was a strategic calculation born of necessity. The president has been losing vote share for nearly 30 days.

…While our sense is that the Romney ascent has begun to slow, it does show a 5-6 point shift that represents this election’s clearest and most substantial vote share change.

Popular vote is by pretty much all accounts a dead heat.

The electoral college margin still favors Obama, but now is increasingly thin.  There are 2 paths for Obama to win re-election:

a. Ohio.

If he holds Ohio, he probably holds Nevada, PA, Wisconsin, and therefore he wins with at least 271.

The last 2 polls were exactly even.

b. Without Ohio.

He can win with any 3 of these 4:

Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia.

Yes, I know our friend at Suffolk declared Virginia to be such an obvious Romney win that it’s not worth polling anymore.  The last 2 polls are Obama +2 and Romney +2, so another dead heat.