Suffolk poll has Warren up 53-46

New poll from our friends at Suffolk (who aren’t wasting time on the Presidential race in three large southeastern states) has Warren up 53-46 among likely voters.  Suffolk also has Obama leading Mitt Romney 63-31.  That is a 32-point advantage,one of the bigger leads for the President I’ve seen in Massachusetts polling.

Boston Globe/UNH, as we all know, had Brown up 45-43 and the race tied at 47 with leaners. Obama led Romney by only 14 (52-38) in the Globe/UNH poll, leaving a large number of undecided voters.  The Globe/UNH poll also showed 6 percent of the respondents without even a lean in the Senate race, which seems off at this late juncture.

Someone’s wrong, obviously.  Based on the Obama toplines, I’d say the truth is somewhere between the two polls, but closer to the Suffolk poll, since it matches the other recent surveys.  Globe/UNH is the only poll in the past four weeks showing Brown anywhere near tied, let alone ahead.  But the race will be won by getting out the vote on Nov. 6.  So let’s get back to work, do our thing, and stop worrying that there’s been a huge stampede to Scott Brown because of Karl Rove’s slime throwing, etc.

UPDATE: 21% of respondents contacted via cell phone, 23% have a union member in family, 34% have “children in the school system.”

Brown’s favorables in this poll are 45-42 (+3), Warren 51-36 (+15).  I wonder if that’s right.  Brown has definitely lost some people’s approval with his negative campaign but this almost seems too good for Warren.  The governor is also at 57% favorable, which I think is better than he usually polls.

One indication Brown’s negativity has backfired: on the question “Has Scott Brown’s campaign hurt his reputation?” it’s 41% yes, 46% no.

Some interesting questions in the poll:

Both candidates are right around 80-20 on the question “Are you voting more FOR this candidate or AGAINST the opponent?” ”

“Do you think there is a Republican war on women?” 39% yes, 52% no.  Perhaps women in Massachusetts are insulated from the types of things women in other states have to endure.  “Is Scott Brown a part of it?” 24% yes, 63% no.

Trusted to tell the truth?: 42% Warren, 34% Brown

Better represents the interests of middle class families?: 51% Warren, 36% Brown

Better represents Massachusetts?: Warren 48%, Brown 38%

More independent as Senator?: Brown 46%, Warren 41%

Better campaign?: Warren 43%, Brown 32%

Benefit to having one Dem and one Repub. representing Mass. in Senate?: Yes 50%, No 40%.  Can’t say I liked that one.

Who do you expect will win?: Warren 47%, Brown 37%.  Some demoralization in Scott-land?

 

Ballot Initiatives:

Question 1 (“right to repair”): Yes 74%, No 12% (so much for skip the question?)

Question 2 (physician-assisted suicide): Yes 47%, No 41%, Undecided 11%

Question 3 (medical marijuana): Yes 55%, No 36%, Undecided 8%