The WBUR poll

There has been much mention of the new WBUR poll that had Elizabeth Warren up 46-44, only 2 points, as compared to the most recent Globe poll, which had her up 43-38, or 5 points, of course.  The two polls are remarkably similar (except the Globe, as usual, has a much larger pool of undecideds). That’s because, when you add in leaners, Warren’s lead in the WBUR poll is 49-45.  The Globe’s poll incorporated leaners into their top number.  WBUR didn’t.

In the Globe’s poll, among only those certain of their vote, Warren led 51-48.  Extrapolated to the polled group at large, that’s 36-34.  The two polls show a similar trend: Warren has a small lead among those who’ve decided and a bigger lead when leaners are counted.  Clearly many voters are leaning her way but not entirely sold.  We need to solidify that support.

I took a quick look at the WBUR poll toplines and here’s what I found (again, only 500 respondents and a 4.4% MOE)

Good news for Brown in the WBUR poll

• 48% of respondents thought he voted with Democrats about the right amount of the time.
• Warren’s unfavorables are up from 32 to 37 in the last two weeks.  Maybe the Cherokee thing is getting some traction?
• He’s closing the gap on some issues.
  • In the Sept. 15-17 WBUR poll, they asked “who agrees with you on key issues that matter to you?”  Warren led 45-33.  Now her lead has been halved, 45-39.
  • In the Sept. 15-17 poll, they asked “who will stand up for regular people in the Senate?”  It was Warren 39, Brown 29, both equally 23.  In the more recent poll it was Warren 43, Brown 35, both equally 18.
  • In the Sept. 15-17 poll, they asked “who grew up in a middle class background?”  It was Warren 24, Brown 23, both equally 33. This time it’s Brown way up, at 33, Warren down, at 20, and both equally 32.  Maybe the “Harvard” stuff is sticking.  Good thing she said last night she was a janitor’s daughter.
• 40 percent of respondents watched the first debate.  In their collective view, Brown won, 16-14, with 5 percent calling it a draw.

Good news for Warren in the WBUR poll

• She leads, and leads by 4 points when leaners are counted.
• Her percentage of the vote is up from two weeks ago.  45 up to 47 in initial preference, 47 up to 49 among leaners. She’s getting close to the magical 50% in this poll.
• Though the lead is smaller than two weeks ago, Warren leads on the issues that matter to voters, 45-39.
• The WBUR poll asked  (I paraphrase) if it looks like Obama’s going to win on Nov. 6, whom would you be more likely to vote for, Warren or Brown?  They also asked if the Presidential election looks very close, whom would you be more likely to vote for, Warren or Brown? Warren was up 50-44 in the event of a reasonably clear Obama win and a nearly identical 49-43 in the event of a close election.  Since one of those two possibilities will come to pass, that is good news.
• Voters want the Democrats to control the Senate by 58-29, a 2-1 ratio.
• 48 percent of voters think having an all-Democratic congressional delegation from Massachusetts would be a “positive development.” 38 percent say it would be a “negative development.”  This question was 41-43 back in February.
• 57 percent said Brown’s positions are “very similar” (15%) or “somewhat similar” (42%) to Romney’s.  Romney is losing to Obama in the poll, 60-32.

I think it could help a lot if Obama, or Bill Clinton, or someone cut an ad, or popped into Lowell for an hour on a visit to N.H., and spoke out strongly for Warren and the desirability of a Democratic Senate.

Please share widely!

0

0