Here in Dracut, we get a lot of political mail. Most of it from the Brown campaign. The fact that Brown took Dracut by a 3-1 margin in 2010 means that he feels he owns Dracut. Many communities in this area (including Methuen, North Andover, Georgetown, Tyngsboro, Haverhill, and Billerica) also have a significant blue collar population and are trending Brown. The head of the Greater Boston Tea Party lives in Haverhill. People think that all their customers are going to New Hampshire to avoid “taxachusetts” and distrust Beacon hill.
I don’t think that it will be 3-1 this time around because Warren is a stronger candidate, but it could easily be 65-35. If the election is close, Warren’s lack of support here could tip the scales to Brown. There are some things that Warren could have talked about that would push a lot of people in this area towards her. But in the debates, and in her campaign in general, Warren has failed to make those points as clearly as she should.
Once tonight’s debate got past the discussion of the Native American and Travelers issues, Warren had the opportunity at last to talk about Brown’s votes. She brought up S. 1723 (Teachers and First Responders Back to Work Act of 2011 ) which Brown voted against. So far so good: the bill stalled with 50 for, 50 against, on October 20, 2011. See: http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=112&session=1&vote=00177
The problem with Warren’s answer is that she was not talking about the budget issue in a way that local people could easily relate. Just this spring, Holyoke had 9 school layoffs, Shrewsbury had 33, Malden lost 17 positions, Dracut lost 39 positions in the end after 15 were rehired. Other towns like Georgetown had to increase property taxes or offer early retirements to avoid layoffs. The net result is a disturbing increase in class size and a decrease in the quality of education. All she had to do was rattle off some of the numbers for “teacher cuts” for five or six towns, and the number of jobs that would have been saved by the bill Brown voted against. Same thing for the number of fire/police jobs that were affected statewide.
On several other issues that came up, like Afghanistan, she again could have been specific about Massachusetts programs that need the funding but face budget cuts. Brown understands that her biggest weakness is not that she identified as a Native American but that she was not born and raised in Massachusetts. Mentioning the local impact of Brown’s votes, not just in terms of number of teachers… but by the impact on the finances of cities and towns, might help Liz gain ground in some areas where she needs help.
On immigration, Brown won a few points with independent white voters by taking a “law and order” position. Warren could counter by talking about how the money that billionaires will receive from tax cuts has not in the past created that many jobs here, because the bilionaires receiving these cuts are investing a significant portion of their funds outside of the U.S. If the funds are invested directly by the government they are far more likely to support jobs here… and the number of jobs created in the last major recovery (Clinton) by public and private sector behind outpaced immigration by a large margin.
We got our first Liz Warren mailer on Saturday, focusing on Brown’s vote against equal pay. A good start.
Glad to see someone else from Dracut here. Also glad to see more Warren yard signs than I expected in Dracut.
I’ve been canvassing unenrolled voters in North Andover, and have been pleasantly surprised. Especially by women. And North Andover has a very similar demographic. I think there was a slight win for Obama in 2008 and a 60-40 split in the Brown Coakley race.
One development that has not received much ink on BlueMassGroup is the conservative tabloid published by Tom Duggan, the Valley Patriot (http://www.valleypatriot.com). It comes out of North Andover but is distributed to around 8 towns. Duggan is the former campaign director for the Mass Citizens Alliance, which attempted to put the issue of gay marriage up for a referendum in 2002-3. Do people pay attention to that publication, and its associated Saturday radio show, in North Andover?
… I deliberately go out of my way to ignore it.
mentioning specific towns, especially ones where Brown did very well in 2010 could be very effective. It could show voters there how Brown’s votes in the U.S. Senate do affect their town, and show them she cares about the voters there.
It could also undermine some of Brown’s “I’m a townie, she’s from wherevah” schtick. He married a girl from Waltham. Great. Now Waltham has 40 fewer teachers thanks to you and your party.