Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Who are the undecided?

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Over lunch I took a closer look at the undecided, to figure out who they are and what is important to them.  Here’s what I found.

From the WBUR poll (Sept. 25-27):

  • Brown has better favorables overall, but that’s largely because 16% of Warren supporters view him favorably but aren’t voting for him.  Only 6% of Brown supporters view Warren favorably.
  • Importantly, the undecideds have a better view of Warren (36-14, +22) than of Brown (25-22, +3) in this poll.  In the Globe poll Brown was at 56-12 (+44) and Warren at 50-18 (+42), or a wash.
  • The undecided are overwhelmingly favorable to President Obama (73-7, +66) but take a dim view of former Governor Romney (28-48, -20) and the Tea Party (7-50, -43).
  • Not surprisingly, the undecided are voting overwhelmingly for President Obama.  45 people out of 504 in the poll, or 9%, said they were undecided in the Senate race.  Of them 33 are voting for President Obama, only 1 for Romney, and 11 haven’t decided that one either or won’t say.
  • 17% of women 18-49, and 20% of women 50+, have yet to decide if they view Brown favorably.  Virtually all men have made their decision on that.  This is where the Scalia stuff can be of help.
  • 28% of the undecided think both candidates will stand up equally for women’s issues, and another 6% favor Brown.  That’s a third.  Again, the Scalia thing might help disabuse them of that notion.
  • The undecideds want the Democrats in charge in Washington.  They favor Democratic control of the Senate by 53-13 (+40), and think an all-Democratic Massachusetts delegation would be a “positive development” by 42-9 (+33).

Take this with a grain of salt, since the undecided are only 34 people, but these are good trends.

The Globe poll:

  • As noted above, favorables are high for both candidates among the undecided voters.
  • Again, undecideds favor Obama strongly (75-15, +60) and don’t like Romney (18-71,-53).  They even view Kerry (54-23, +31) and Martha Coakley favorably (49-22, +27).
  • Thus they are voting for Obama by 67-7 (+60).
  • They expect Brown to win the election (46-25, +21).  This may mean they live in parts of the state where Brown has visible support, but they themselves would be open to Warren.
  • They favor Brown on working with the opposite party (61-17, +44) likeability (56-15, +41) and leadership (43-25, +18) and slightly on “understands people like you” (37-32, +5).
  • They favor Warren heavily on “best help working people” (40-22, +18) and protecting Medicare (62-18, +44).
  • 60% are very or somewhat familiar with the “Native American” issue.  74% say it won’t impact their vote, 19% that it makes them less likely to vote for Warren, 1% that it makes them more likely.
  • 53% think Brown supports women’s issues strongly (24%) or somewhat (29%).  Again, Scalia and Blunt Amendment.
  • For what it’s worth, they support medical marijuana by 73-13 (+60).
  • They overwhelmingly (21-4, +17) thought Brown won the first debate.  Maybe watching with Brown supporters.

A strategy that combines touting Warren personally with nationalizing the race, via Scalia and some sign of support from the President, could tip this one our way.  And, of course, knock on doors and maximize turnout.

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Comments

  1. you may be too stupid to live.
    1) You probably walk out into traffic without looking for oncoming cars.
    2) You probably stuff scalding hot pizza into your mouth and burn yourself every time you eat pizza.
    3) You probably watch TV shows with the words “Housewives of” in the title.
    4) You probably think Scott Brown is independant.
    5) You probably think Ayn Rand is a role model.
    6) You probably read Red Mass Group to learn 5 things you should know about today.
    7) You probably doubt the impact of Global Warming on our weather.
    8) You probably doubt evolution.

    I find it difficult to accept that you friggin idiots may decide things in November.

    • but this time I think it’s very different. Mike, I can’t say your view is accurate or particularly helpful. Looking at the undecideds in the Mass. Senate race, it seems pretty clear they’re not Randites, on RMG, global-warming skeptics, evolution-doubters.

      I doubt they’re walking into oncoming traffic. I’ve eaten too-hot pizza myself. It’s hard to wait. I take no position on whether they watch shows with “Housewives.”

      They’re largely Obama voters who have heard for three years that Scott Brown is independent, or at least relatively so, and a nice guy to boot. I don’t agree with that, but many people are surrounded by 2010 Brown voters who tell them that regularly. I think we need to engage these voters and certainly not insult them.

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