The Herald has published the results of a new poll it commissioned from UMass Lowell, and the numbers look good for Ed Markey all around. Highlights here, toplines here, Herald’s article here.
The pollsters point out that 86% of registered voters report knowing a special election is taking place, but a majority of voters could not identify the candidates. Nearly half of respondents never heard of Markey (18%) or have no opinion of him (30%), but those numbers are far lower for Markey than for any other candidate. The others range from Lynch (60.3% never heard of OR have no opinion) to poor Dan Winslow (almost 70% never heard of, 22% heard of but no opinion, for a total of 91.5%). Obviously some of these folks will become much better known as things go on, but for now Markey’s well ahead (at least in this poll).
Markey leads Lynch in the primary polling by 50.0% to 20.5%. His placement at the 50% marker has to be good news for him. Against the GOP candidates in a hypothetical general, Markey also holds big leads:
- Up 17.2 on Michael Sullivan (47.5% to 30.3%)
- Up 19.5% on Gabriel Gomez (47.0% to 27.5%)
- Up 23.2% on Dan Winslow (49.1% to 25.9%)
Note than Sullivan, the favorite right now among the GOP field, is the only one cracking 30%. He’s also the best known Republican, though 40% say they’ve never heard of him and another 39% say they have no opinion.
Lynch also leads all three Republicans by similar margins (up 17 on Sullivan, 18 on Gomez, 24 on Winslow).
In other news, the poll found Scott Brown with higher name recognition then other likely Republican Gubernatorial candidates in 2014, and that nearly 59% would support him (32.7% very likely, 26.0 somewhat likely). He has support of 92% of self-identified Republican respondents, and still (to my everlasting chagrin) of nearly 37% of self-identified Democratic respondents.
A full 2/3 of respondents report having never heard of Charlie Baker or having no opinion of him. Guess he made a huge impression as the 2010 nominee of a major political party for Governor.
is to become known, not to be known.
One problem for Lynch is that South Boston is very parochial. It’s a nice local political base, but there’s plenty of population in the rest of the state.
Based on Charlie Baker’s numbers (AFTER being the nominee for statewide office), I’m not sure it’s going to work out that way for Winslow.
The big concern in the primary for Markey remains turnout. I think it’s clear a majority of eligible Mass. Democratic primary voters would prefer Markey on the issues, but the groups supporting Lynch have been more likely to show up. Particularly for something like a special election primary in April. If Markey can get a decent ground game going, I think he’ll win.
52,000 signatures collected suggests strongly that Markey is well on his way in the ground game department.
…he has almost the entire cadre of Warren volunteers reactivated and energized, only a few have failed to respond. I believe it’s similar in most other parts of the state as well.
n/t
UMass changed a few things. Good for them because they blew it on the Warren / Brown election, it remains to be seen if their poll is worthwhile. Emphasis mine:
Senate election
Special election:
I wonder if his higher name recognition is because his name is generic enough in Massachusetts that everyone knows a Michael Sullivan, just maybe not THIS Michael Sullivan.
Good number of Middlesex voters might remember Michael A. Sullivan and his uncle Edward Sullivan who were long time county clerks. And yes most might think of their neighbor.