Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Political Risk

By

The intersection of good ideas and politics is always intriguing to me. Calculating political risk can be challenging and you need good information to make informed decisions.

With his revenue proposal, Governor Patrick is standing up for what he believes and asking all of us to do the same. That’s why I love the guy.

His plan to put Massachusetts in a strong position for economic growth over the long term by investing in education and infrastructure requires more revenue to succeed. And succeed it will. In truth there’s virtually NO debate that this is a good idea. It’s not just 57 prominent economists who say these kinds of investments are wise. People all over the Commonwealth are making their voices heard. here here here Even the Boston Herald poll tells us the public understands that these investments make sense. If you look, you can even find a REPUBLICAN (!) who will praise what the plan will accomplish — even if they don’t want to pay for it.

The plan is now being discussed in the legislature and predictably (and wisely) different folks have different takes on HOW to do these very good things. Again, I’ve been impressed that very few people argue against the benefits of doing what previous generations did to make our world better. Everyone knows that the Greatest Generation sacrificed and made long term decisions so that their children and grandchildren could live in a better world.

Now it’s our turn.

You know, as Chair of the Mass Democratic Party, I love every Democratic elected official — proudly and on the record. I offer my thoughts here in the service of helping those Democrats – giving them my best political advice, for whatever it’s worth.

I know that there are many legislators that are committed to improving our kids’ education and the infrastructure that helps our businesses thrive and they would do anything they could to make that happen. I also understand that there are legislators who worry about the cost of government and find supporting increased taxes – even for things we want – very tough. Most legislators fall in between and need to work to balance these concerns. I get that.

I even accept that there are legislators who don’t give a damn about anything other than getting re-elected. Hey, it’s a great country, right?

What gets me scratching my head is those folks who put political calculations first on their list but insist on calculating their political risk using 23-year-old (1990) data. That seems foolish to me. No, more precisely it seems dumb.

And unnecessary.

You see, we actually HAVE much more recent political data — only four months old as a matter of fact. Let’s take a look:

– On November 6, there wasn’t a single incumbent Democrat who lost to a Republican anywhere in Massachusetts.

– In truth, three incumbent Democratic legislators lost in primaries to Democratic challengers last fall.

– Thankfully, in 2012 Democrats retired four one-term Republicans who arrived in the 2010 Tea Party surge that swept the country and one other who had been singing this right wing tune for a number of years.

– In addition, there were a few other races where Democratic challengers came within points of unseating one-term Republicans.

– On Election Day 2012, there were tens of thousands of Democratic organizers on the ground for GOTV. Over the last few years, these local organizers have learned how to execute a grassroots, issues-based, community-organizing campaign in their communities. It’s inspiring, isn’t it?

I support Governor Patrick’s revenue plan for Massachusetts to grow faster by investing in education and infrastructure and I congratulate the legislators who are working to determine the best way to do that. I expect the final plan might come out a little different from the one the Governor proposed. šŸ˜‰ It’s all good.

For the few legislators that are only calculating their own political risks, I’d suggest that 23-year-old data can be misleading. More recent results suggest that when looking for political risk, right wing Republicans might not be your biggest problem.

John Walsh, Chair
Massachusetts Democratic Party

Please share widely!
fb-share-icon
Tweet
0

Comments

  1. And we will do our part and keep up the grassroots pressure on wavering Dems, and feel free to give us names to persuade and numbers to call.

  2. I’m worried that some of our elected Democrats think that they were elected in order to be re-elected. I vote for Democrats to do things a Democrat believes in, and this is one of them.

    It’s been a while since we separated the leaders from the cowards on Team Blue here in the Bay State, and I’m learning that we have more cowards than I’d have liked.

    • Perhaps the resistance isn’t because of re-election fears (perhaps they know they aren’t going to face a serious challenge). Perhaps it’s a concern about inside-the-building Power, where supporting sufficient/substantial revenue means “crossing the Speaker” and Risking status and power.

      Electeds would never actually admit that’s why they’re not supporting progressive revenue. “Voters won’t like it” is a plausible enough cover (if you don’t actually talk to them, consider November 2012 or read the polls) for the real reason — “Leadership won’t like it.”

      Well, it’s a theory.

      • …and I’d say it’s more than a “theory”. In April 2011 I participated in some lobbying at the State House along with many other union members in opposition to the state legislature’s persistent chipping away at collective bargaining rights for public employees. At one point I heard a member of the house — one whom I had always heard was in the forefront of progressive legislators — asked why he would not support restoring business taxes to what they had been a generation ago (when businesses were doing very well, by the way), and taxing the extremely wealthy, who have a much more disproportionate share of today’s wealth than they did 20 years ago.

        His answer was blunt: “If I pressed for that, I’d be a back-bencher.”

        • there was no “political will” in the legislature for such things as you describe, thus explaining a vote in favor of rolling back collective bargaining rights. I responded that, if “progressives” stood firm, there’d be no “political will” for rolling back collective bargaining rights. Which might prompt a reconsideration of whether new revenue is needed.

  3. I’ve been advocating for revenue and I do not understand the resistance. We voted for Obama. We voted for Warren. The voters believe in investing in the public infrastructure, using taxes to fund it. Voters like good schools, safe communities, reliable bridges and transportation, and we get that we have to pay for those things thru taxes.

    There’s widespread support for increased revenue in my town. PEOPLE GET IT. If they don’t get it YET, 5 minutes of explaining is more than enough to bring them around. The Governor’s done a great job using the bully pulpit to shift the narrative around revenue and investing in the public trust. The voters have shown their understanding with our Nov 2012 votes. Why are the legislators so timid? We know that raising revenue is the responsible thing to do. Shouldn’t there be more shame in NOT supporting this bill — for wanting all the benefits of education, infrastructure and safety net, but not wanting to PAY for it?

    The funny thing is, I’m much more likely to vote for — and work for — someone who stands up in this moment, and I know many progressive, grassroots organizers and campaign workers who feel the same. We’re the field team. WE get it. Why don’t our legislators?

    • Almost every legislator is responsive to their constituents. You can be sure that they are hearing from the “no-new-taxes” crowd, even in places where they are in the minority.

      Be sure you personally call your legislators and any legislators you may have helped. Use your organizing skills (FriendBank anyone?) to get others to do the same. If they are with us, thank them. Write a letter to your local paper or blog. If they are uncertain, be sure you make it clear that this is a priority for your political activity in the next couple years. Tell them if they support the revenue to enhance our education and infrastructure, you’ll put in the time to defend them if they catch political heat.

      I’m proud of a the work that has been done to elect Democrats who’ll stand up for what we believe. At the State House Rally this week, Governor Patrick said about the elements of this plan like infrastructure investments, expanded early education and more affordable higher ed: “We know what works.” If we can’t pass a revenue bill to support what we know works, what’s the point?

      I’m confident your calls – and the calls you organize in the next few days – will work.

      • I do wonder though, what in the world are they thinking?
        There are only so many times *I* can harass I mean call my legislators though (that’s why I organize… to make my voice stronger by adding it with my friends’!).

        Progressive Mass has a call check-in/script as well as lots of background info on the Revenue campaign page

  4. Willing to consider a hike in my income tax rate. Not happy about it, but I’ll agree it should be part of the discussion. I’m willing to consider a hike in my gas tax rate. But no — absolutely, positively no — to hiking the Mass Pike tolls.

    Not until other highways are also tolled and people from the south shore who drive on the underground Central Artery pay at least as much as we in the western suburbs pay. Can’t do that? Then stop treating Pike commuters as a bonus ATM for whatever other transportation project people are interested in funding.

    Do you understand that Westborough to Allston/Brighton costs $5.20 a day on top of usual gas, etc. commuting costs? That’s $26/week or more than a thousand dollars a year, or the equivalent of another 2% in your income tax rate for someone earning $50K/year. Even Framingham to Newton is more than $600/year.

    Let’s have some equity and more of a shared shouldering of the burden here.

    • That ain’t cheap either. And the guy taking the bus keeps a car off the road and greenhouse gases out of the air, Tolls suck but fare hikes have really sucked too. That is why we should all get behind Governor Patrick’s revenue proposal. It would at least share the burden that toll and fare payers have been bearing for years.

      • It’s equity. How would you feel if an inner express bus pass cost $110 a month if you lived west of Boston but was free if you lived south of Boston?

  5. And while you can’t name names, I will call out some of our fellow Dems for being a bunch of wusses. Number one offender has to be Rep John Binienda. In the Herald he was quoted saying with regards to the Govenor’s proposals.

    Heā€™s not coming back. Heā€™s in his last term as governor,ā€ said state Rep. John Binienda (D-Worcester), who said his constituents havenā€™t been happy with Patrickā€™s plan. ā€œSome of us want our jobs back.ā€

    And Speaker DeLeo has been pouring cold water on the proposal too.

    Binienda deserves a primary. He has been a long standing mediocrity.

    With friends like these…..

  6. Your passion and brilliance always render me grateful for your leadership. I would like to turn your encouragement to support Governor Patrick’s revenue reforms through grassroots action back toward you and the inner circle of politicos who have the ear of Legislative leadership.

    For the life of me, I can’t understand how the Commonwealth has a system that has produced the “characters” who have occupied the Speaker’s chair over the past couple of decades. Sal DiMasi’s conviction aside….he was at least a smart and charismatic leader. DeLeo is an embarrassment and Finneran was creepy. I am too tired to rail against the senate’s dysfunction this evening yet it too has a deficit of true progressive leadership.

    Here’s my take. Revenue and tax reforms, which are desperately needed, will only be effective if the increasingly autocratic House and Senate power structure (leader appoints committee chairs, vice-chairs, committees, doles out “bonuses,” etc…) is dismantled and operates on merit, skill and expertise.

    What can and will you and your political strategist peers do to influence leadership (they sure as shit ain’t gonna listen to a nobody like me) to enact systemic change for the good of the Commonwealth and her people?

    Cheers, HD

    • This could be a great organization, its just in its infancy so I understand its limitations but I would love for this to be a center-left Pioneer Institute on te policy side (research, generation and implementation)-AND an advocacy/lobbying powerhouse on the political side (like a progressive Club for Growth or NRA with scorecards an primary challengers). That might light a fire in our bellies.

    • I’m sorry to start off by disagreeing with you about our legislative leaders. I like them and applaud their work. When I look at where Massachusetts is showing national leadership (healthcare access, energy conservation, clean energy, veterans benefits, student achievement and more) through the worst economy in memory – while retaining a priority on fiscal responsibility that has yielded an increase in our bond rating and healthy reserve balance, I instinctively credit the Patrick/Murray administration but none of it is possible without partners in the legislature.

      Of course, I don’t agree with everything they have done, nor do I suspect do you. But I suggest if you think of this as a battle against terrible people, you’re not only missing a key point, your strategy is likely to be flawed. Instead, I urge you to recognize the accumulated good works of our legislators and their leaders and urge them to support this plan as a continuation of that good work.

      I think there are very few legislators (Democrats particularly)who won’t agree with the goals. If you are represented by one who doesn’t, that’s what primaries are for. If your legislator tells you they’d vote for this but somebody (anybody) won’t LET them, I’d urge you to see that as an excuse.

      In most cases, your legislators will listen to you and your friends about why this is important and they’ll be grateful to know you’ll put your time and energy behind them if they catch heat.

      Try it.

      John Walsh, Chair
      Massachusetts Democratic Party

      • … through the worst economy in memory ā€“ while retaining a priority on fiscal responsibility that has yielded an increase in our bond rating and healthy reserve balance, I instinctively credit the Patrick/Murray administration but none of it is possible without partners in the legislature.

        With the sole exception of the maximally horrific casinos (the worst thing Deval Patrick has done), the legislature, where not actively hiding from the public during the all-too-frequent use of the word “indictments”, has been actively opposing the Patrick Administration. for no apparent reason other than inertia. When not cowering beneath their desks at the sound of legal papers rustling, the legislature in Massachusetts has been alternating between outright ridiculous and pointlessly, smugly, obstreperous: they are leaderless, rudderless and, frankly, simply a well stuffed sack of antipathy to change (particularly ethics reform…) They have, in no way, been anything like ‘partners’ and are more like a clan of hill-billies, clinging to to an impoverished sense of self, that have decided to squat in the middle of the street, slowing down the rest of us, raging at the world as it progresses.

        Let’s just save ourselves some trouble and lock the doors to the State House, barr the windows, feed them thrice daily and start a legislature anew down the street with a whole new crop of players.

      • you did not answer my direct question:

        What can and will you and your political strategist peers do to influence leadership (they sure as shit ainā€™t gonna listen to a nobody like me) to enact systemic change for the good of the Commonwealth and her people?

        It is wonderful that you are enamored with the Legislative leadership and I admire your affinity to find the positive spin in many situations. However, it is troubling that you chose to side-step the question and did not focus on the point of the post which is the undemocratic, “increasingly autocratic House and Senate power structure.”

        Thank you.

      • Thank you John for this, like Buddha, I’m cultivating positive energy by encouraging this kind of message ……..and not responsding at all to the negative energy promoted by cynicism.

        But I suggest if you think of this as a battle against terrible people, youā€™re not only missing a key point, your strategy is likely to be flawed. Instead, I urge you to recognize the accumulated good works of our legislators and their leaders and urge them to support this plan as a continuation of that good work.

  8. Why did the Governor say he wouldn’t propose any broad based tax increases when he ran for reelection if the evidence of support for this type of plan is so compelling?

Archives